Calculations Suggest That Global Warming Caused By the Doubling of CO2 Will Be Less Than 0.6K

Guest essay by Saburo Nonogaki

It has been said that the averaged earth surface temperature would be 255K if no green-house-effect(g-h-e) gases were contained in the atmosphere, and is 288K at present where the atmosphere contains g-h-e gases. The estimation of 255K is based on the earth’s long-term radiative equilibrium and Stefan-Boltzmann’s law which states that the total amount of radiative energy from a black body at absolute temperature T is proportional to T 4.

As the earth’s long-term radiative equilibrium will be reached also in the case where the atmosphere contains g-h-e gases, we obtain the following equation under the condition that the long-term input energy from the sun remains constant.

(1–a )T 4 = constant (1)

Here, T is the averaged earth surface absolute temperature and a the ratio of radiative energy retained by the g-h-e gases in the atmosphere to the total radiative energy. By replacing T in equation (1) with 255K and 288K, we obtain the following equation.

(1–0)×2554 = (1–a )×2884 (2)

From equation (2), we obtain the value of a as follows.

a = 0.385 (3)

Jack Barrett* has reported that, in the case of 100m-thick atmosphere, the doubling of pre-industrial concentration of CO2 will result in the increase in infrared absorption by g-h-e gases by 0.5%. The reason why the increase is so small is based mainly on the

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