List of IMF and BIS Systemic Risk Warnings

Re-Blogged From http://lonestarwhitehouse.blogspot.com

Over the past year we have documented numerous warnings which the IMF and the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) have issued in regards to risks that exist to the stability of the global financial system. Some of the warnings come directly from IMF and BIS officials and publications. One comes from a speech by BIS General Manager Jaime Caruana. Others come from articles appearing on the IMF Direct blog. One is a link to former IMF Peter Doyle who says despite issuing risk warnings, the IMF has failed in providing early warnings for systemic crisis.

Below is a list of links to these warnings to make it easier for readers to read and review. It is intended to be an information resource available to anyone who can use it. The links (in parentheses) allow you to go directly to the source link used for my blog article if you like.

Readers are encouraged to send us links to new articles like these if you see them so the list can be updated. This list contains a lot of information. A suggestion might be to bookmark this page and review the information over time.

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June 2015 BIS – World is Defenseless in next Crisis  (UK Telegrahph, no blog article) (BIS Annual Report)

July 2015 – IMF – Warns US the System is Still Vulnerable (CNN – no blog article)

July 2015 – IMF – Warns Pension Funds Could Pose Systemic Risk ( FT – no blog article) 




Added notes:

A thank you to Bill Holter for mentioning this list in his recent article (Jim Sinclair runs it here)

Appreciate Willem Middelkoop mentioning this list on his Twitter feed

Jim Rickards points out that these warnings have been issued for a long time now

Along those lines, the IMF has been talking about and studying this problem for a long time.
Below are some links to a 2009 in depth IMF report on Systemic Risks.

Chapter 1 – Stabilizing the Global Financial System

Chapter 2 – Assessing the Systemic Implications of Financial Linkages 

Chapter 3 – Detecting Systemic Risk

A quote from the Conclusion Section of Chapter 3:

“Although every measure of systemic risk has limitations to some degree, and indeed all models are by nature simplifications of the complexity of the real world, this chapter discusses various tools that can be used to shed light on potential systemic events. Thus far, financial sector regulation and supervision have focused on the risk of failure of each financial institution in isolation. The analysis presented here suggests that regulators should take into account the risk of both individual and systemic failures.”

In October 2014 the IMF released an internal study on how much its ability to provide early warning for a crisis had improved and what obstacles remained. You can see it here. The conclusions in the report (pp 30-32) listed areas that needed improvement.

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