The Froth of the Fourth

by Willis Eschenbach – Re-Blogged From WUWT

I see that the Fourth US National Climate Assessment has just been published. It’s here, and it should be required reading for those masochists who like overblown claims, flimsy justifications, and ridiculous pretensions.

The fun thing about each of the Climate Assessments is that after an initial flurry of media hype following the publication of their latest hyperbolic claims, everyone ignores them. They sink with the sad finality of an outboard motor spark plug accidentally dropped overboard two miles at sea …

As a result, the authors apparently have concluded that with each successive incarnation of the Assessment, they have to ratchet up the alarmism to new heights. And as you might expect, the most recent one is the most over-the-top to date. It contains statements like:

The impacts of climate change are already being felt in communities across the country. In the absence of significant global mitigation action and regional adaptation efforts, rising temperatures, sea level rise, and changes in extreme events are expected to increasingly disrupt and damage critical infrastructure and property, labor productivity, and the vitality of our communities.

… climate changes will “disrupt and damage labor productivity”? Say what?

They continue:

Rising temperatures, extreme heat, drought, wildfire on rangelands, and heavy downpours are expected to increasingly disrupt agricultural productivity in the United States. Expected increases in challenges to livestock health, declines in crop yields and quality, and changes in extreme events in the United States and abroad threaten rural livelihoods, sustainable food security, and price stability.

Seems like they have been reading too much of Paul Ehrlich’s endless failed serial doomcasting about STARVATION! FOOD RIOTS! MASS DEATH! CROP FAILURES! and the like …

They go on, there’s no stopping them:

Climate change has already had observable impacts on biodiversity, ecosystems, and the benefits they provide to society. These impacts include the migration of native species to new areas and the spread of invasive species.

And here’s a quote from a typical media report, under the headline of

Government climate report warns of worsening US disasters

“We are seeing the things we said would be happening, happen now in real life,” said report co-author Katharine Hayhoe of Texas Tech University. “As a climate scientist it is almost surreal.”

And report co-author Donald Wuebbles, a University of Illinois climate scientist, said, “We’re going to continue to see severe weather events get stronger and more intense.”

It’s already happening, so be afraid … be very, very afraid …

After reading all of that, I got to wondering about the recent temperature history of the US. I went to NOAA’s Climate At A Glance, got their recent monthly data, and graphed it up, along with the dates of the four US National Climate Assessments. Here’s that result:

Figure 1. Recent US temperatures, most recent (October 2018) temperature, and dates of the US National Climate Assessments.

As you can see, since the First US National Climate Assessment some 18 years ago, the US average temperature has gone up by … well … about zero degrees Celsius. Or for Americans, it’s gone up by … well … about zero degrees Fahrenheit.

I can see why the hype in the Climate Assessments has had to keep increasing in order to keep the alarmism alive …

… it’s to distract us from the most embarrassing fact that the US temperature hasn’t increased in the slightest in the 18 years since the first US National Climate Assessment.

Oops …



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