US GDP Not All It Was Cracked Up To Be

You may be worried my prediction that a recession will start sometime this summer is not looking too good. So was I after first-quarter corporate earnings started coming in better than what economists expected. Except that barely “beating expectations” is kind of pathetic when expectations are dumbed down as far as they were.

(Note that I have also stated each time I repeat this prediction that we won’t know until half a year beyond summer whether or not it happened, because initial GDP reports are often revised down after the next quarter (perhaps in order to make the next quarter look better quarter on quarter) as facts come in more clearly and because no recession is officially declared until a month after two full quarters have seen total GDP decline — not a decline in the growth rate, but an actual drop in GDP.)

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Scientists Find Bounds of Weather Forecasting is 2 Weeks

Re-Blogged From WUWT

From Penn State University and the “but we guarantee you there’s no predictability limit in climate science” department comes this interesting study.

UNIVERSITY PARK, Pa. — In the future, weather forecasts that provide storm warnings and help us plan our daily lives could come up to five days sooner before reaching the limits of numerical weather prediction, scientists said.

“The obvious question that has been raised from the very beginning of our whole field is, what’s the ultimate limit at which we can predict day-to-day weather in the future,” said Fuqing Zhang, distinguished professor of meteorology and atmospheric science and director of the Center for Advanced Data Assimilation and Predictability Techniques at Penn State. “We believe we have found that limit and on average, that it’s about two weeks.”

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NYSE Margin Debt 1979 To Present

By Mark J Lundeen – Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle

The Dow Jones Index in the BEV chart below closed this week a bit below last week’s close; 1.06% instead of last week’s 1.00%, down six cents on the dollar, or basically unchanged from last week.  As I said last week the bulls aren’t in a hurry, but I’m sure the bulls remain optimistic that the Dow Jones will make history sometime in the weeks and months to come.

What happens after that is the question.  Last October the Dow Jones made a handful of BEV Zero’s, and then began a three month 18% correction, as seen in the BEV chart below.

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US Measles Cases Hit Highest Level Since Eradication in 2000

By Jonathan Allen – Re-Blogged From IJR

The United States has confirmed 695 measles cases so far this year, the highest level since the country declared it had eliminated the virus in 2000, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said on Wednesday.

The resurgence, which public health officials blamed in part on the spread of misinformation about the safety of vaccines, has been concentrated mainly in Washington state and New York with outbreaks that began late last year.

“The longer these outbreaks continue, the greater the chance measles will again get a sustained foothold in the United States,” the CDC warned in a statement. It said outbreaks can spread out of control in communities with lower-than-normal vaccination rates.

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)/Handout via Reuters

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The Great Killers of Our Age

By Allan MacRae – Re-Blogged From WUWT

1. Introduction.

On December 6, 2018 I was informed in a letter from the Association of Professional Engineers and Geoscientists of Alberta (APEGA) that I was “the 2019 Summit Award recipient of the Centennial Leadership Award. This is APEGA’s most prestigious award and is given to members of APEGA in recognition of continued leadership in the profession and in the community, attaining the highest distinction relating to engineering or geoscience.” That award has now been withdrawn by the Executive and the unanimous vote of APEGA Council, because of posts I wrote on wattsupwiththat.com

Two of my several accomplishments that resulted in the Centennial Award were:

· Innovations, by myself or with colleagues, which created 500,000 jobs, caused $250 billion in capital investment in Alberta and made Canada the fifth-largest oil producer in the world;

· Taking decisive actions that incurred significant personal risks when staff at the Mazeppa sour gas project were afraid to act, which may have saved up to 300,000 lives in Calgary.

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Magic Money Tree Economics

By GE Christenson – Re-Blogged From Silver Phoenix

Our Current Financial Circumstances

  1. The U.S. is $22 trillion in debt and burdened with $100 – $200 trillion more in unfunded liabilities. Just to pay the interest the U.S. must borrow. Debt is rapidly rising and cannot be paid unless “they” default or hyper-inflate the dollar.
  2. Chairman Jerome Powell stated, “The U.S. federal government is on an unsustainable path.” Even the Fed admits what everyone should realize.
  3. Global debt is $250 trillion. Some countries have descended farther down the debt-paved road to economic hell than the U.S.
  4. Pensions are under-funded, student debt is a disaster, the main street economy is weak, real estate prices and sales are falling, retail sales are down, real wages have been stagnant since the 1970s, and no credible plan exists to fix debt, deficits or devaluations.
  5. The political and financial elite profit from wars, inflation, devaluation, strip-mining assets, and income inequality.
  6. It’s an ugly picture with no easy answers. But debt, deficits and QE levitated stock markets to all-time highs.

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