Gold-Stock Mega-Mergers Bad

By Adam Hamilton – Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle

The world’s two biggest gold miners both announced mega-mergers over the past 5 months or so.  These huge deals briefly garnered some interest in the usually-forgotten gold-stock sector, and fleeting praise from Wall Street analysts.  But gold-stock mega-mergers are bad news for gold-miner shareholders on all sides.  They reveal the serious struggles of major gold miners, and really retard future upside in their stocks.

For decades the largest gold miners in the world have been Newmont Mining (NEM) and Barrick Gold (ABX).  These behemoths have long dwarfed all their peers in operational scope.  While the gold miners are in the process of reporting Q4’18 results now, their latest complete set remains Q3’18’s.  As after every quarterly earnings season, I analyzed them in depth for the major gold miners of GDX back in mid-November.

Continue reading

Silver Miners’ Q3’18 Fundamentals

By Adam Hamilton – Re-Blogged From Silver Phoenix

The major silver miners’ stocks have been largely abandoned this year, spiraling to brutal multi-year lows. Such miserable technicals have exacerbated the extreme bearishness plaguing this tiny contrarian sector. While profitable silver mining is challenging at today’s exceedingly-low silver prices, these miners are chugging along. Their recently-reported Q3’18 results show their earnings are ready to soar as silver recovers.

Continue reading

Gold-Stock Summer Lows

By Adam Hamilton – Re-Blogged From http://www.Gold-Eagle.com

The gold miners’ stocks have been drifting sideways to lower like usual in their summer doldrums. They are likely near their major seasonal lows ahead of a strong autumn rally, a great buying opportunity. Gold rebounding higher will be the primary driver fueling the gold-stock advance, dispelling today’s bearish psychology. And strong Q2 production growth will likely play a sizable role in restoring favorable sentiment.

Market summers have long been gold’s weakest time of the year seasonally. Junes and early Julies in particular are simply devoid of the big recurring demand spikes seen during most of the rest of the year. With traders vacationing to take advantage of warm sunshine and kids being out of school, markets take a back seat. So there’s no outsized gold buying driven by income-cycle or cultural factors this time of year.

Continue reading

Gold Upleg Breaking Out

By Adam Hamilton – Re-Blogged From http://www.Gold-Eagle.com

Gold’s strong upleg accelerated this week, powering to major new breakout highs. Speculators rushed to buy gold futures following surprising weak-dollar comments from the US Treasury Secretary, which hit the US dollar hard. That boosted gold to critical technical levels that should really intensify the shift back to bullish psychology. This mounting gold breakout confirms gold’s bull market is very much alive and well.

While this week’s surge put gold on many more traders’ radars, it has actually been picking up steam for 6 weeks now. Gold’s latest major interim low of $1242 came a couple days before the Fed’s latest rate hike in mid-December. The gold-futures speculators who dominate this metal’s short-term price action have always had a deep and irrational fear of Fed rate hikes. Historically gold has thrived in rate-hike cycles!

Continue reading

Silver Miners’ Q3’17 Fundamentals

By Adam Hamilton – Re-Blogged From http://www.Silver-Phoenix500.com

The silver miners’ stocks have really languished this year, grinding sideways to lower for months on end. This vexing consolidation has fueled near-universal bearishness, leaving silver stocks deeply out of favor. But once a quarter when earnings season arrives, hard fundamentals pierce the obscuring veil of popular sentiment. The silver miners’ recently-reported Q3’17 results reveal today’s silver prices remain profitable.

Four times a year publicly-traded companies release treasure troves of valuable information in the form of quarterly reports. These are generally due by 45 days after quarter-ends in the US and Canada. They offer true and clear snapshots of what’s really going on operationally, shattering the misconceptions bred by the ever-shifting winds of sentiment. There’s no silver-miner data that is more highly anticipated than quarterlies.

Continue reading

Gold Miners’ Q3’17 Preview

By Adam Hamilton – Re-Blogged From http://www.Gold-Eagle.com

With the third quarter’s earnings season now underway, the gold miners will soon join in and report their latest results. No data is more highly anticipated by investors, for good reason. Quarterly reports dispel the dense fogs of herd sentiment that usually obscure gold stocks, revealing their operations’ underlying fundamental realities. Q3’17’s upcoming results are likely to prove quite bullish for this neglected sector.

Four times a year publicly-traded companies release treasure troves of valuable information in the form of quarterly reports. Companies trading in the States are required to file 10-Qs with the US Securities and Exchange Commission by 45 calendar days after quarter-ends. The gold miners generally release their quarterly reports in the latter half of this span. So Q3’17’s will arrive between late October and mid-November.

Continue reading

Silver Miners’ Q1’17 Fundamentals

By Adam Hamilton – Re-Blogged From http://www.Silver-Phoenix500.com

Silver mining is a tough business both geologically and economically.  Primary silver deposits, those with enough silver to generate over half their revenues when mined, are quite rare.  Most of the world’s silver ore formed alongside base metals or gold, and their value usually well outweighs silver’s.  So typically in any given year, less than a third of the global mined silver supply actually comes from primary silver mines!

The world authority on silver supply-and-demand fundamentals is the Silver Institute.  It recently released its highly-anticipated World Silver Survey 2017, which covers 2016.  Last year only 30% of silver mined came from primary silver mines, a slight increase.  The remaining 70% of silver produced was simply a byproduct.  35% of the total mined supply came from lead/zinc mines, 23% from copper, and 12% from gold.

Continue reading

Gold Juniors’ Q1’17 Fundamentals

By Adam Hamilton – Re-Blogged From http://www.Gold-Eagle.com

The junior gold miners’ stocks suffered a serious thrashing between mid-April and early May.  Relentless heavy selling blasted many back down near deep mid-December lows, leaving sentiment in tatters.  But traders distracted by weak technicals need to keep their eyes on the fundamental ball.  The gold juniors just finished their Q1 earnings season, which was solid.  Their low stock prices are disconnected from reality.

Four times a year publicly-traded companies release treasure troves of valuable information in the form of quarterly reports.  These are generally due by 45 days after quarter-ends in the US and Canada.  They offer true and clear snapshots of what’s really going on operationally, shattering the misconceptions bred by the ever-shifting winds of sentiment.  There’s no junior-gold-miner data that is more highly anticipated.

Continue reading

Gold Miners’ Q1’17 Fundamentals

By Adam Hamilton – Re-Blogged From www.Gold-Eagle.com

The gold miners’ stocks have been slammed by a sharp gold pullback in recent weeks, spawning today’s bearish sentiment.  Traders often get caught up in the emotional swings generated by this volatile sector.  But once a quarter earnings season arrives, revealing gold mining’s hard fundamental realities which dispel the obscuring sentiment fogs.  The major gold miners’ profitability actually just exploded higher in Q1!

Four times a year publicly-traded companies release treasure troves of valuable information in the form of quarterly reports.  Companies trading in the States are required to file 10-Qs with the US Securities and Exchange Commission by 45 calendar days after quarter-ends.  Canadian companies have similar requirements.  Some companies in other countries with half-year reporting instead of quarterly even follow suit.

So the world’s major gold miners are just wrapping up their first-quarter earnings season.  After spending decades intensely studying and actively trading this contrarian sector, there’s no gold-stock data I look forward to more than the miners’ quarterly financial and operational reports.  They offer a true and clear snapshot of what’s really going on, shattering the misconceptions bred by the ever-shifting winds of sentiment.

Continue reading

Gold Stocks’ Strong New Upleg

By Adam Hamilton – Re-Blogged From http://www.Gold-Eagle.com

Gold stocks are on fire this year, powering higher in market-dominating performance.  This is a massive reversal from their dark fourth quarter, with 6/7ths of those losses already erased.  But this strong new upleg still remains young and small by historical standards.  Gold stocks’ recent rally is only the vanguard of another major bull-market upleg.  This sector’s bullish technicals reveal vast upside potential from here.

The gold miners are a small contrarian stock-market sector that isn’t widely followed.  Hearing about how the gold stocks are faring in the mainstream financial media is pretty rare.  So this sector generally flies under the radars of the great majority of speculators and investors.  That’s rather unfortunate, because the gold stocks have enjoyed some of the greatest gains in all the stock markets in this young century.

The flagship gold-stock index is the NYSE Arca Gold BUGS Index, which trades under the symbol HUI.  BUGS stands for Basket of Unhedged Gold Stocks, as major gold miners can’t be included in the HUI unless their gold production is not hedged beyond 1.5 years.  Running all the way back to June 1996, and having no management fees like ETFs, the HUI offers the definitive read on gold-stock performance.

Continue reading

Gold Juniors’ Q1’16 Fundamentals

By Adam Hamilton – Re-Blogged From http://www.Gold-Eagle.com

The smaller gold-mining and exploration stocks have enjoyed an amazing year, soaring with gold’s new bull market.  Many have more than doubled since mid-January, and some have more than tripled at best in that short span.  Are such spectacular gains fundamentally-justified, or merely the result of ephemeral sentiment that could vanish anytime?  The gold juniors’ recently-reported Q1’16 results offer great insights.

The junior gold miners and explorers play a critical role in the world gold market.  They bear the major costs and risks associated with discovering and sometimes developing new economically-viable gold deposits.  They painstakingly find the new gold reserves to offset the constant depletion of the world’s existing gold mines, acting as the headwaters feeding the global mined-gold-supply pipeline vital to this industry.

The larger gold miners rely extensively on the juniors’ crucial exploration and early-development work to maintain and replenish their own operations.  While the majors certainly do their own exploration, it is far from sufficient to offset existing gold mines exhausting.  So gold juniors are constantly targeted by the larger miners, which acquire these companies outright, buy their projects, or partner with them for development.

Continue reading