Graphing The Icy Reality

By Willis Eschenbach – Re-Blogged From WUWT

Today I saw some scary headlines. I post them up along with snippets of the stories. First, from the BBC:

Greenland and Antarctica ice loss accelerating

Earth’s great ice sheets, Greenland and Antarctica, are now losing mass six times faster than they were in the 1990s thanks to warming conditions.

“That’s not a good news story,” said Prof Andrew Shepherd from the University of Leeds in the UK.

Next, from the NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL)

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Antarctica and “Alarming” Sea Level Rise

By Rud Istvan – Re-Blogged From WUWT

WUWT reader KS of North Dakota emailed a request to ctm based on reading ‘alarming’ Wired journalism concerning $50 million being spent to further study the ‘dangerous’ Thwaites glacier in Antarctica. KS asked if WUWT could perhaps produce a factual overview. ctm asked me to provide it, since I had written an extensive essay ‘Tipping Points’ in ebook Blowing Smoke on this very sea level rise (SLR) subject (and more). What follows is a lightly rewritten and slightly expanded/updated excerpt for KS and the rest of WUWT.

There are only three ice sheets in the world with the potential to accelerate SLR to alarming levels: Greenland, the East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS) and the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS).

In ‘theory’ Greenland could melt, since there is observed summer melting. It cannot calve (slide into) into the sea (although there are fringe glaciers like Jacobshaven that do, the Titanic sinking being evidence) because Greenland is bowl shaped. At the observed average annual ice mass loss of the past ~2.5 decades (from 1990) Greenland would theoretically take 27000 years to melt. At the ice mass loss rate since 2000, it would only take 14000 years and would increase SLR by a distinctly unalarming ~0.5mm/yr. In reality, given Greenland’s latitude and central ice sheet elevation, melting is impossible—as ice cores reaching back to the Eemian prove. Calculations and references behind this brief summary are provided in ‘Tipping Points’.

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Weekly Climate and Energy News Roundup #330

By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)

Thirty Years of Error? In 1988, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was created by the UN under the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations Environmental Programme (UNEP) from a resolution by the UN General Assembly to address possible future, human-induced, climate change. The reports of the IPCC support the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The objective of the UNFCCC is “stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system.” [Boldface added.]

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Sea Level Speculation Threatens Property Owners

By Jim Steele – Re-Blogged From WUWT

Director emeritus Sierra Nevada Field Campus, San Francisco State University and author of Landscapes & Cycles: An Environmentalist’s Journey to Climate Skepticism

Pacifica California, just south of San Francisco, is my adopted hometown of 25 years. It has garnered national attention as an icon of dangerous sea level rise as eroding cliffs dangled homes over ocean bluffs (discussed in a WUWT post a few years ago). To the delight of property owners and the dismay of environmental extremists, I became a member of Pacifica’s Community Working Group on Sea Level Rise. Governor Jerry Brown’s California Coastal Commission has advised coastal cities to consider that by the year 2100 we should expect a range of sea level rise from 3 to 10 feet due to climate change. Based on such predictions the city will map flood zones, and properties in those zones could suffer from Coastal Commission restrictions that will devalue their property.

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Weekly Climate and Energy News Roundup #322

By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project

Brought to You by www.SEPP.org

Infinite Rise? For the past several weeks TWTW has discussed recent studies and reports claiming accelerating sea level rise. A questionable example included a report from NOAA and was cited by the state of Rhode Island in its litigation against oil companies – “The State of Narraganset Bay and Its Watershed 2017.” In the Technical Summary, Figures 1 & 2 (pp. 76 & 77) show the decades-long sea level trends in Newport and Providence, RI, of 2.78 +/- 0.16 mm per year (1.1 inches per decade) and 2.25 +/- 0.25 mm per year (0.9 inches per decade), respectively. These come from the established NOAA publication “Tides and Currents.” (Newport is at the mouth and Providence at the top of Narraganset Bay) Then, Figure 3 (p. 78) shows NOAA projections of a rise of up to 11 feet in Newport by the end of the century (extreme case)! How did a rise of 10 inches per century, with an error of about 10%, turn in to rise of 11 feet by the end of the century (280 mm per century to 3352 mm per century)? This increase in rate of rise is more than 10 times that being measured.

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Straining at Gnats in Antaractica

By Keith Henderson – Re-Blogged From WUWT

As a car buyer, would you be willing to pay anything significant to get a vehicle with 0.011% better gas mileage? As a businessman, does a 0.011% change make a difference to your plans? Would you change your neighborhood of 20+ years for a 0.011% decrease in security risk, particularly if you knew it could reverse itself shortly thereafter?

Just to be sure we’re thinking realistically about the magnitude of 0.011%, we can also express it as only 110 in a million.

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Antarctic Ice Sheet Collapses, Nobel Prizes, and the Psychology of Catastrophism

By Dr Roy Spencer – Re-Blogged From http://www.drroyspencer.com

Last week I had the privilege of being invited to present a talk at a small conference of world experts in a variety of disciplines. The venue was spectacular, on the French Riviera, and we had an entire late-1800s hotel to ourselves, right on the Mediterranean. For me, it was a once-in-a-lifetime experience. I had the feeling that the organizers wanted the event to have a low profile, and so I won’t mention names.

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Good News! 99.989% of the Antarctic Ice Sheet Didn’t Melt!

By David Middleton – Re-Blogged From http://www.WattsUpWithThat.com

99.989% rounds up to 100%.  This is fantastic news… Unless you’re a Warmunist.  Fortunately for Warmunists, Science News tailors their headlines to your preferences…

NEWS
CLIMATE, EARTH, OCEANS

Antarctica has lost about 3 trillion metric tons of ice since 1992

Ice loss is accelerating and that’s helped raise the global sea level by about 8 millimeters

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Weekly Climate and Energy News Roundup #319

Brought to You by www.SEPP.org The Science and Environmental Policy Project

By Ken Haapala, President

Vincent Gray, RIP: On May 14, we lost a stalwart defender in the battle to keep rigorous science for descending into bureaucratic nonsense. Vincent Gray of New Zealand was an enthusiastic expert reviewer of all five Assessment Reports by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). His comments number in the thousands and he was effective.

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We Can Grow Vegetables in Antarctica. Next Stop: Mars

By Claudia Geib – Re-Blogged From Futurism

In the icy white desert of Antarctica, without the help of sunlight, soil, or pesticides, something green is growing.

And the scientists at Germany’s Neumayer Station III are eating well tonight.

Neumayer III’s researchers just harvested their first crop of Antarctica-grown vegetables, picked from a high-tech greenhouse that makes up the centerpiece of their “Eden ISS” project. The project is testing how plants can grow – not only in hostile places on Earth, like the poles and in deserts – but also in the inhospitable conditions of other planets (hopefully providing humans fresh vegetables when they colonize the moon, Mars, and beyond).

Neumayer Station III, where the vegetables are growing: a long, rectangular station in red, white and gray set on poles above the ice.
Neumayer Station III, where the vegetables are growing. Image Credit: Felix Riess, AWI

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Glaciers and Sea Level Rise

By Andy May – Re-Blogged From http://www.WattsUpWithThat.com

This is the seventh and last post in my series on the hazards of climate change. In this post we examine the effects of climate change on glaciers and sea level rise. The first six examined the effect of humans on the environment, the effect of the growing human population, climate change and the food supply, the cost of global warming, the effect of man and climate change on extinctions, climate (or weather) related deaths, and extreme weather and climate change.

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Climate-Related Deaths and Insecurity

By Andy May – Re-Blogged From http://www.WattsUpWithThat.com

In this post we will discuss the assertion that there will be more climate-related deaths due to man-made global warming. This is the fifth post in a series of seven.

There will be more heat-related deaths

The IPCC AR5 report does not have much to say regarding climate-related mortality, they do mention that heat-related deaths will increase in several places, the following is from page 49 of the WG2 technical summary:

“At present the worldwide burden of human ill-health from climate change is relatively small compared with effects of other stressors and is not well quantified. However, there has been increased heat-related mortality and decreased cold-related mortality in some regions as a result of warming (medium confidence).”

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Failed Climate Predictions

By Javier – Re-Blogged From http://www.WattsUpWithThat.com

Here, for the first time in public, is Javier’s entire collection of massive, “consensus” climate science prediction failures. This collection is carefully selected from only academics or high-ranking officials, as reported in the press or scientific journals. Rather than being exhaustive, this is a list of fully referenced arguments that shows that consensus climate science usually gets things wrong, and thus their predictions cannot be trusted.

To qualify for this list, the prediction must have failed. Alternatively, it is also considered a failure when so much of the allowed time has passed that a drastic and improbable change in the rate of change is required for it to be true. Also, we include a prediction when observations are going in the opposite way. Finally, it also qualifies when one thing and the opposite are both predicted.

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Weekly Climate and Energy News Roundup #281

The Week That Was: August 19, 2017 Brought to You by www.SEPP.org

By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project


Quote of the Week. Physics has a history of synthesizing many phenomena into a few theories – Richard Feynman


Number of the Week: $4 Trillion


Blackwaters: Blackwater rivers and bogs belie the claims that ocean carbonization, foolishly called “ocean acidification”, will eliminate life. Blackwater rivers are common to the Amazon and the Southeast US, and found in Europe, Africa, Australia, Indonesia, and elsewhere. A blackwater river is a slow-moving current running through forested or highly vegetated swamps or wetlands. Decaying vegetation, particularly leaves, release tannins into the water, making a comparatively transparent, acidic water into one darkly stained, resembling tea or black coffee.

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Now That Trump Has Defeated Paris, He’s Taking on Montreal!

By David Middleton – Re-Blogged From http://www.WattsUpWithThat.com

Sacré bleu !

Trump Budget Attacks Montreal Protocol, Reagan’s Crown Jewel

May 24, 2017 David Doniger

The Trump FY18 budget proposal slashes funding to support compliance with the Montreal Protocol, Ronald Reagan’s treaty to save the ozone layer.

The cut—which appears to be on the order of 40 percent—welches on U.S. international commitments and will imperil the global phase-out of ozone-destroying chemicals.

The Montreal Protocol—widely considered the world’s most successful environmental treaty—was negotiated under President Ronald Reagan in 1987 and is his crowning environmental achievement. It has been strengthened repeatedly under both Republican and Democratic presidents.

[…]

NRDC

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Climate Scientist Josh Willis Shows You How to Deal With Your Climate Change Denying Uncle

By Dave Burton – Re-Blogged From http://www.WattsUpWithThat.com

Josh Willis, of NASA JPL, has a new video out entitled, “Straw Men of the Apocalypse – How to deal with your climate change denying uncle.”

clip_image002

Notice that “catastrophic” is apparently not scary enough, these days. Global warming is now “the Apocalypse.”

The video starts out with two guys crawling along the parched ground under the blazing desert sun. One of them says to the other, “We’re gonna die out here, man. If only society had done more to fight climate change.” And it goes downhill from there.

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Antarctic Peninsula Now is Cooling

By Anthony Watts – Re-Blogged From http://www.WattsUpWithThat.com

A warming trend of 0.32 °C/decade during 1979–1997 to a cooling trend of − 0.47 °C/decade during 1999–2014.

Remember the much ballyhooed paper that made the cover of Nature, Steig et al, “Warming of the Antarctic ice-sheet surface since the 1957 International Geophysical Year”, Nature, Jan 22, 2009 that included some conspicuously errant Mannian math from the master of making trends out of noisy data himself? Well, that just went south, literally.

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New Insight Into What Weakens Antarctic Ice Shelves

By Anthony Watts – Re-Blogged From http://www.WattsUpWithThat.com

New research describes for the first time the role that warm, dry winds (katabatic winds) play in influencing the behaviour of Antarctic ice shelves. Presenting this week at a European conference scientists from British Antarctic Survey (BAS) explain how spring and summer winds, known as föhn winds, are prevalent on the Larsen C Ice Shelf, West Antarctica and creating melt pools. The Larsen C Ice Shelf is of particular interest to scientists because it of the collapse of Larsen A in 1995 and Larsen B in 2002.

The researchers observed the föhn winds, which blow around 65% of the spring and summer period, extend further south and are more frequent than previously thought, and are likely to be a contributing factor that weakens ice shelves before a collapse. The results are presented this week (Tuesday 25 April) at the European Geosciences Union General Assembly (EGU) in Vienna.

In 1995 and 2002, the Larsen A and B ice shelves collapsed, depositing an area the size of Shropshire into the Weddell Sea. Whilst ice shelf collapse doesn’t directly contribute to sea level rise, the glaciers which fed into the ice shelves accelerated, leading to the loss of land ice, and subsequently indirect sea level rise. The processes responsible for the collapse of these ice shelves were largely debated, and it is now thought that crevasses on the ice shelf were widened and deepened by water draining into the cracks. Föhn winds are thought to be responsible for melting the ice shelf surface and supplying the water.

The findings describe when and where the warm, dry winds occur over the Larsen C Ice Shelf, the largest remaining ice shelf on the Antarctic Peninsula (roughly the size of Wales). Föhn winds were measured from near-surface weather stations and regional climate model data over a five year period and observed all year-round, but were most frequent in spring.

PhD student and lead scientist on this project from British Antarctic Survey (BAS) and Leeds University, Jenny Turton says:

“What’s new and surprising from this study is that föhn winds occur around 65% of the time during the spring and summer. And we didn’t know how much they influence the creation of melt pools and therefore are likely to weaken the ice shelf. Whilst a high number occur in spring, the combined warming over a number of days leads to much more surface melting than was experienced during days without föhn winds. This is important, as melting during summer and re-freezing during winter weakens the ice surface, and makes it more at risk of melting again the following season.

“We know the ice shelf often melts a little during summer, however we have found that when föhn events occur as early as September (three months earlier than the start of the summer melt season), the ice shelf surface is melting. Now that we know how prevalent and spatially extensive these winds are, we can look further into the effect they are having on the ice shelf.”

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Weekly Climate and Energy News Roundup #248

The Week That Was: November 12, 2016 – Brought to You by www.SEPP.org

By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project

When Does A Scientific Assumption Become a Myth? As discussed in the October 22 TWTW, the influential 1979 Charney Report asserted that laboratory results showed that any increase in surface temperatures from a doubling of atmosphere carbon dioxide (CO2) would be very modest. Further, the influence of CO2 on temperatures is logarithmic. As the concentration increases, the total influence increases, but the influence of each additional amount declines. For practical purposes, this warming would be insignificant and cannot be differentiated from natural variation.

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Weekly Climate and Energy News Roundup #247

The Week That Was: November 5, 2016 – Brought to You by www.SEPP.org

By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project

Svensmark Hypothesis Criticized: The Svensmark hypothesis that high energy cosmic rays can be a building block for cloud formation has been demonstrated in the laboratory, most recently by CERN. The cosmic rays are modulated by changes in solar wind, which are the result of solar activity. The activity of the sun is estimated by frequency and intensity of sunspots. An active sun results more solar wind and a corresponding net decrease in cloud formation. A dormant sun results in less solar wind and a corresponding net increase in cloud formation and a corresponding decrease in temperatures. This hypothesis is consistent with earlier thoughts about conditions in Europe during the Little Ice Age, when the skies were cloudy, winters were cold, and crops did not ripen, resulting in periods of famine.

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The ‘Cult’ of Climate Change

By Ari H – Re-Blogged From http://www.WattsUpWithThat.com

Global warming has become a religion.

This is the opinion of Nobel Prize Winning Physicist Dr. Ivar Giaever , Prof. Richard Lindzen, and many others. Climate change alarmism has a surprising number of attributes of a medieval or even ancient religion. Nevertheless, real religions have some pre-requisites, like a tradition spanning at least few generations. So the proper name for climate alarmism is a cult. And these are the telltale attributes:

1) Climate alarmists pretend to possess indisputable truths about the past, present, and future. From minute details of the paleoclimate to the world state 200 years in the future, alarmists know everything. Continue reading

Does the ‘Leader’ of the Free World Really Know So Little About Climate?

By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley – Re-Blogged From http://www.WattsUpWithThat.com

Mr. Obama’s remarks at the U.S. Coast Guard Academy’s Commencement May 20 demonstrate the extent to which his advisors are keeping him divorced from the facts.

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Talking Truth to the Climate Consensus

A sound bite summary*

By Rud Istvan – Re-Blogged From http://www.WattsUpWithThat.com

The climate consensus has two levels of derogation for those who disagree. Climate ‘contrarians’ like Bjørn Lomborg disagree about mitigation policies. Climate ‘deniers’ like Judith Curry disagree about the underlying climatology. The consensus does not want disagreement, since the ‘science is settled’. They decline to engage (Schmidt/Spencer), disappear comments (Real Climate, the Guardian), refuse to host comments (LATimes), and loudly allege a fossil fuel funded ‘denier’ conspiracy (Grijalva). But they cannot avoid the occasional personal encounter. Following are some possible ‘silver bullets’.

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