Decline of the U.S. Dollar Could Happen at ‘Warp Speed’

Stephen Roach, a Yale University senior fellow and former Morgan Stanley Asia chairman, tells MarketWatch that his forecast for a sharp deterioration of the U.S. dollar could be a very near-term phenomenon, not an event that looms off in the distance.

“I do think it’s something that happens sooner rather than later,” the economist told MarketWatch during a Monday-afternoon interview.

His comments come as the financial expert has been warning for weeks of an epic downturn of the buck that could signal the end of the hegemony of the greenback as a reserve currency — an event that would ripple through global financial markets.

Stephen Roach

Studies Show Fracking Ban Would Wreak Havoc on U.S. Economy

By Tim Benson – Re-Blogged From WUWT

A new study from the American Petroleum Institute (API), with modeling data provided by the consulting firm OnLocation, details how a nationwide ban on hydraulic fracturing (colloquially known as “fracking”) could trigger a recession, would seriously damage U.S. economic and industrial output, considerably increase household energy costs, and make life much harder and costlier for American farmers.

In America’s Progress at Risk: An Economic Analysis of a Ban on Fracking and Federal Leasing for Natural Gas and Oil Development, API argues that a fracking ban would lead to a cumulative loss in gross domestic product (GDP) of $7.1 trillion by 2030, including $1.2 trillion in 2022 alone. Per capita GDP would also decline by $3,500 in 2022, with an annual average decline of $1,950 through 2030. Annual household income would also decline by $5,040.

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State or Individual?

By Alasdair Macleod – Re-Blogged From Gold Money

The most important question faced by the human race is almost never addressed in modern times: which should be the master, the state over the individual or the individual over the state? It is particularly relevant today, bearing in mind President Trump is demolishing the established order both domestically and within America’s wider sphere of influence. The blowback he is getting from all the vested interests that have wormed their way into the processes and assumptions that drive government policy is considerable. It is very much relevant to the UK’s Brexit process, where the establishment is trying to scupper the freely expressed will of the people in a referendum.

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Outlook For The Dollar Price Of Gold

By Alasdair Macleod – Re-Blogged From http://www.Gold-Eagle.com

Now that gold has become overbought on Comex, the price is vulnerable to being trashed, yet again, by the too-big-to-fail banks. It is a familiar operation in gold futures markets, where speculators buying contracts protect themselves with stop-losses. All the TBTF banks need is a pause in the speculator’s buying and a little good news (bad for gold). Ideally, the active contract will be running into maturity, so the speculators are forced to put up or shut up: in other words, sell the contract, roll it into another later maturity, or stand for delivery.

Bearing in mind these speculators are running highly leveraged positions, greed turns to fear on a sixpence. The TBTF banks will have supplied the speculators with their longs by going short. From the moment you go long, you are trapped in a trader’s version of Hotel California.

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The Vexed Question Of The US Dollar

By Alasdair Macleod – Re-Blogged From http://www.Gold-Eagle.com

There is little doubt that the rapid expansion of both dollar-denominated debt and monetary quantities since the financial crisis will lead us into a currency crisis. We just don’t know when, and the dollar is not alone. All the major paper currencies have been massively inflated in recent years. With the dollar acting as the world’s reserve currency, where the dollar goes, so do all the other fiat monies.

Until that cataclysmic event, we watch currencies behave in increasingly unexpected, seemingly irrational ways. The fundamentals for Japan are not good, yet the yen remains the strongest currency of the big four. The Eurozone risks a systemic collapse, overwhelmed by political and financial headwinds, yet the euro’s exchange rate has proved relatively impervious to this deep uncertainty. The British economy is strongest, yet sterling is the weakest of the four majors.

If nothing else, today’s foreign exchanges are evidence that subjectivity triumphs over macroeconomic thinking. Mackay’s Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds beats computer modelling every time. Furthermore, any official attempt to establish a rate for the dollar has to address two separate questions: the value of the dollar relative to other currencies, and its purchasing power for goods and services.

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The Dollar in FOREX Markets

cropped-bob-shapiro.jpg   By Bob Shapiro

The paper currencies of all countries fluctuate in exchange rate for several reasons, mostly (but not always) due to government policies.

The exchange rate for the Euro (since 1999 when the Euro was introduced) vs the US Dollar, started around $1.18, dropped to $0.83 in 2001, jumped up to $1.60 in 2008, and now is back just below where it started, today at $1.1275 per Euro.

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cropped-bob-shapiro.jpg   By Bob Shapiro

If the only tool in your kit is a hammer, pretty soon every problem starts to look like a nail. I’m not sure where I hear that, but I’ve seen that phenomenon in action.

I read an otherwise excellent recounting of the travails of Russia and its Ruble during the last few months, as their major exports, oil and gas, have plunged on world markets. As oil and gas prices have gone down, so has the foreign exchange value of the Ruble, by a comparable

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The End of the Dollar Standard

cropped-bob-shapiro.jpg   By Bob Shapiro

The Eurozone can be thought of as a 2-tier confederation. The northern countries have stronger economies, have trade surpluses, and have lower debt to GDP. The southern countries – often referred to as the PIIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece, and Spain) – have been in and out of economic crisis after crisis for many years.

A few years ago, I was in preliminary contact with the government of Portugal. I prepared a 24 page report for them outlining how they could reverse the tailspin that the country was in.

One feature of my plan was for them to build up their holdings of Gold

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