Why The Bulls Will Get Slaughtered

By David Stockman – Re-Blogged From http://davidstockmanscontracorner.com

Well, they got that right. Detecting that “parts of the U.S. jobs report for January seem fishy”, MarketWatch offered this pictorial summary:

Needless to say, none of that stink was detected by Steve Liesman and his band of Jobs Friday half-wits who bloviate on bubblevision after each release. This time the BLS report actually showed the US economy lost 2.989 million jobs between December and January. Yet Moody’s Keynesian pitchman, Mark Zandi described it as “perfect”

Yes, the BLS always uses a big seasonal adjustment (SA) in January——so that’s how they got the positive headline number. But the point is that the seasonal adjustment factor for the month is so huge that the resulting month-over-month delta is inherently just plain noise.

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These Ain’t Your Grandfather’s “Jobs”

By David Stockman – Re-Blogged From http://davidstockmanscontracorner.com

This “Jobs Friday” ritual is getting truly absurd. So it can’t be repeated often enough: These artifacts of the BLS’ seasonally maladjusted, trend-cycle modeled, heavily imputed, endlessly crafted and five times revised “jobs” numbers have precious little to do with the real health of the main street economy.

Indeed, the six-year run of job gains since early 2010 primarily represents “born-again jobs” and part-time gigs. In economic terms, they do not remotely resemble your grandfather’s industrial era economy when a “job” lasted 40 to 50 hours per week all year round; and most of what the BLS survey counted as “jobs” paid a living wage.

Not now. Not even close.

The Wall Street fools who bought the dip still another time on Friday do not have the slightest clue that the US jobs market is actually quite dead.

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Stop Government Statistical Fraud

cropped-bob-shapiro.jpg   By Bob Shapiro

The US Federal Government continues to release reports to the American people that either mislead or falsify the underlying data. This sorry state of affairs has been going on for generations, although it appears to have gotten worse – and blatantly so – during the reign of the current Administration.

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Minimum Wage Madness

cropped-bob-shapiro.jpg   By Bob Shapiro

During the 1st third of the 20th century, the Minimum Wage was held to be Unconstitutional, since it violated the Due Process guarantee under the 14th Amendment. In 1937, during the Roosevelt Administration, the Supreme Court overturned their earlier, long-standing ruling, and the Minimum Wage was declared to be Constitutional.

An important consideration is that, in February 1937, FDR had legislation introduced which would “pack” the Supreme Court – potentially increasing the voting number to 15 Justices. FDR supported the Minimum Wage, and his attacks on the then current makeup of the high court likely influenced members’ votes.

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Data Driven or Driven Data

Peter-Schiff   By Peter Schiff

There can be little doubt that data releases rather than experience or intuition are driving the economic conversation. This is perhaps a function of the disconnection that many people feel about an economy that they no longer understand. Rather than trusting their own eyes or their own gut to form an opinion, it’s much easier to grab a set of convenient numbers. The big question then becomes what numbers you choose to look at and which you choose to ignore.

While there are a great many types of economic data releases, issued by a myriad of public and private sources, two reports have risen above the rest in importance: the

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