Our Costly Dalliance With Lord Keynes

In “The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money”, Keynes virtually created macroeconomics. But Keynes was a mathematician, not an economist, and did not fully understand free markets, so he was hardly qualified to emerge as the most influential economist of the last century. His misconceptions still inform the establishment, comprising governments and their regulated financial sectors. Given that there is dawning acknowledgement that these policies are propelling leading nations into a common financial and economic crisis, a forensic dissection of Keynes’s errors and motivations is overdue. This essay is a brief attempt to rectify this omission.

Hayek’s assessment of Keynes

Perhaps we should have listened to Friedrich Hayek, when he said that his friend Lord Keynes was not an economist. This description of Keynes by Hayek is extracted from a video interview with Leo Rosten in 1975:

“He was a man with a great many ideas who knew very little about economics. He knew nothing but Marshallian economics. He was completely unaware of what was going on elsewhere. He even knew very little about nineteenth century economic history. His interests were very largely guided by aesthetic appeal, and he hated the nineteenth century and therefore knew very little about it, even about its scientific literature.”

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Central Banks In Panic Mode

By Egon von Greyerz – Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle

In this interview Max Keiser and Egon von Greyerz discuss the enormous pressures in the financial system and the coming stampede into gold. Also:

  • The final phase of the currency race to zero has just started
  • Massive energy in gold, built up over the last 6 years
  • Gold will break its all-time high of $1920, without effort
  • Gold hit new all-time highs in many currencies. Now on its way to at least $10,000 or even $50,000
  • Central banks panicking over global banking system
  • Negative rates – Government bonds, world’s most risky investment
  • At some point, investors will dump overvalued bonds, resulting in hyperinflation and implosion of bond market
  • Dow Jones stock index, will face a vicious fall very soon and in years to come

HERE IS THE INTERVIEW:

Inflationary Financing And GDP

By Alasdair Macleod – Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle

We tend to think of a nation’s accounts as being split between government and the private sector. It is for this reason that key tests of a nation’s economic sustainability and prospects for the currency are measures such as a government’s share of a nation’s economic output, and the level of government debt relative to gross domestic product.

While there is value in statistics of this sort, it is principally to give a quick overview in comparisons with other nations. For a more valuable analysis it is always worthwhile following different analytical approaches in assessing the prospective evolution of a currency’s future purchasing power.

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The Yield “Curve” Knows

By Craig Hemke – Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle

As global interest plummets to historically negative levels—and as the U.S. bond market reveals a deeply inverted yield curve—it’s time again to assess what all of this means for the precious metals investor.

Just yesterday, a fellow on CNBC remarked that “no one had seen this coming”. By “this”, he meant a sharp rally in both gold and bonds. Oh really? We write these articles for Sprott Money each and every week.

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Deeply Negative Nominal Rates Are On Their Way

Growing evidence of a severe global recession is sure to provoke more aggressive monetary policies from central banks. They had hoped to have the leeway to cut interest rates significantly after normalising them. That hasn’t happened. Consequently, as the recession intensifies central banks will see no alternative to deeper negative nominal rates to keep their governments and banks afloat through a combination of eliminating borrowing costs and inflating bond prices. It will be the last throw of the fiat-money dice and, if pursued, will ultimately end in the death of them. Gold and bitcoin prices are now beginning to detect deeper negative rates and the adverse consequences for fiat currencies.

The problem

Central banks face a dilemma: how can they cut interest rates enough to stop an economy sliding into recession. A central banker addressing it will note that the average cut required to put an economy back on its feet is of the order of 5%, judging by the experience of 2001/02 and 2008/09 and what their economic models tell them. Yet, in Euroland the starting point is minus 0.4% and in Japan minus 0.1%. In the US it was 2.5% before the recent reduction and in the UK 0.75%. The solution they will almost certainly favour is deeper negative nominal interest rates.

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Keep Your Wealth from Falling Into The Negative Interest Rate Vortex

By Stefan Gleason – Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle

The world is in the midst of one of the strangest asset bubbles of all time. Instead of being fueled by the hope of bigger and bigger gains, it is being driven by a resignation to incurring lower and lower… and ultimately negative, yields on capital.

This summer, the global inventory of bonds yielding less than zero reached a record $13 trillion.

Negative yielding instruments are concentrated mainly in Europe and Japan, where they have spread from sovereign to corporate issuances. Now even some “junk”-rated bonds are teetering around 0%.

Negative Interest Rates And Cash

By Bart Klein Ikink – Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle

Is it possible to have cash with negative rates?

War on cash?

There is talk about a war on cash to pave the way for negative interest rates. Negative interest rates and cash go not well together, at least so it seems. People may opt for cash when interest rates on bank accounts and government bonds are negative. In Europe many interest rates are already in negative territory but the central bank still promotes the use of cash. So is there a war on cash? At least not at the European Central Bank (ECB) it seems. Some ECB policy makers can even get a bit emotional about cash being the only real link between the central bank the people.1

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