# Emperor Penguin Numbers Rise

By Dr. Susan Crockford’s Polar Bear Science – Re-Blogged From WUWT

Emperor penguin (Aptenodytes fosteri) populations in 2019 were found to have grown by up to 10% since 2009 – to as many as 282,150 breeding pairs (up from about 256,500) out of a total population of over 600,000 birds (Fretwell et al. 2012; Fretwell and Trathan 2020; Trathan et al. 2020) – despite a loss of thousands of chicks in 2016 when an ice shelf collapsed. Yet, biologists studying this species are currently petitioning the IUCN to upgrade emperor penguins to ‘Vulnerable’ (Trathan et al. 2020), based on models that use the implausible and extreme RCP8.5 ‘worse case‘ climate change scenario (e.g. Hausfather and Peters 2020) that polar bear biologists find so compelling. Not surprisingly, their unscientific models suggest emperor penguins could be close to extinction by 2100 under these unlikely conditions – but if we reduce CO2 emissions via political policy, the penguins will be saved!

# SOLAR CYCLE UPDATE

Re-Blogged From Space Weather

NOAA has released a new interactive tool to explore the solar cycle. It lets you scroll back through time, comparing sunspot counts now to peaks and valleys of the past. One thing is clear. Solar Minimum is here, and it’s one of the deepest in a century.

Click to explore almost 300 years of sunspot counts

Solar Minimum is a natural part of the solar cycle. Every ~11 years, the sun transitions from high to low activity and back again. Solar Maximum. Solar Minimum. Repeat. The cycle was discovered in 1843 by Samuel Heinrich Schwabe, who noticed the pattern after counting sunspots for 17 years. We are now exiting Solar Cycle 24 and entering Solar Cycle 25.

# Alaskan Volcano Linked to Mysterious Period with Extreme Climate in Ancient Rome

Re-Blogged From WUWT

UNIVERSITY OF COPENHAGEN

PHYSICS The cold, famine and unrest in ancient Rome and Egypt after the assassination of Julius Caesar in 44 BCE has long been shrouded in mystery. Now, an international team, including researchers from the University of Copenhagen, has found evidence suggesting that the megaeruption of an Alaskan volcano may be to blame.

Dark times befell upon the Mediterranean around the time of Julius Caesar’s assassination in 44 BCE. Written accounts describe the region as severely impacted by unusual cooling, failed harvests, famine and disease, all of which combined to contribute to the fall of the Roman Republic and Ptolemaic Kingdom. While researchers long suspected that a volcanic eruption was to blame, they were unable to pinpoint exactly where and when such an eruption might have occurred.

# Death and Disease From Climate-Sensitive Diseases

By Indur M. Goklany – Re-Blogged From WUWT

Between 1990 and 2017, the cumulative age-standardized death rate (ASDRs) from climate-sensitive diseases and events (CSDEs) dropped from 8.1% of the all-cause ASDR to 5.5%, while the age-standardized burden of disease, measured by disability-adjusted life years lost (DALYs) declined from 12.0% to 8.0% of all-cause age-standardized DALYs. Thus, the burdens of death and disease from CSDEs are small, and getting smaller.

Figure 1: Climate-related deaths are a small proportion of all-cause fatalities (1990–2017). Based on data per IHME (2019).

But readers of the 2019 report of the Lancet Countdown (hereafter ‘the Countdown’), a partnership of 35 academic institutions and UN agencies, established by the prestigious Lancet group of medical journals and supported by the equally-esteemed Wellcome Trust to track progress on the health impacts of climate change, may well be left with the opposite impression, particularly if they do not delve beyond the Executive Summary, the section most likely to be read by busy policymakers or their advisors.

Not once does it mention that cumulative annual rates of death and disease from CSDEs are declining, and declining faster than the corresponding all-cause rates. The Countdown also fails to provide adequate context for the reader to judge the burdens of mortality or disease posed by CSDEs, individually or cumulatively, relative to other public-health threats. In fact, it even suggests that the health effects of climate change are ‘worsening’. But the data do not support that claim. Moreover, an analysis of the text makes it clear that the Countdown conflates estimates of increasing exposure, ‘demographic vulnerability’, and increased ‘suitability’ of disease transmission with actual health effects. These estimates are used as proxies, but trends in these estimates have not been verified to reflect, and do not track, long-term trends in deaths or death rates.

Figure 2: Burden of mortality from CSDEs, 1990–2017. The Forces of Nature group excludes deaths from geophysical causes per EMDAT (2019). Data per IHME (2019).

# 2019 Indian Monsoon — Blessing or Curse?

By Kip Hansen  – Re-Blogged From WUWT

In India, the monsoons that bring the rains are not just weather or climate phenomena — they are  mystical and mythical entities —  entwined into the national character and the annual cycle of life.

Now that the 2019 Southwest Monsoon is officially over, it is reported to have delivered 110% of the long-term average amount of rain to this mostly dry sub-continent.  It was just months ago that the international press was touting stories about water problems in Chennai.    You may be more familiar with the previous name of the city, Madras.  The NY Times covered the story and threw in a line: “And then there’s climate change. It doesn’t bear direct blame for Chennai’s water crisis, but it makes it worse“

# Climate Change Destroyed Assyrian Empire… without fossil fuels!

By David Middleton – Re-Blogged From WUWT

Megadrought Helped Topple the Assyrian Empire
Paleoclimate records shed light on the ancient civilization’s meteoric rise and catastrophic collapse.

By Mary Caperton Morton 15 January 2020

Around 2,700 years ago in what is now northern Iraq, the Assyrian Empire was at its zenith, dominating the cultural and political landscape of the Fertile Crescent. But within a few years, the empire collapsed, leaving the once thriving capital of Nineveh abandoned for nearly 200 years. The cause of this catastrophe is an enduring mystery, but a climate record preserved in a cave formation now is revealing that the timing of the empire’s rise and fall coincided with a wet period followed by a 125-year-long megadrought.

# Two More Degrees by 2100!

By Vaughan Pratt – Re-Blogged From WUWT

An alternative perspective on 3 degrees C?

This post was originally intended as a short comment questioning certain aspects of the methodology in JC’s post of December 23, “3 degrees C?”. But every methodology is bound to have shortcomings, raising the possibility that Judith’s methodology might nevertheless be best possible, those shortcomings notwithstanding. I was finding my arguments for a better methodology getting too long for a mere comment, whence this post. (But if actual code is more to your fancy than long-winded natural language explanations, Figures 1 and 2a can be plotted with only 31 MATLAB commands .)

Judith’s starting point is “It is far simpler to bypass the attribution issues of 20th century warming, and start with an early 21st century baseline period — I suggest 2000-2014, between the two large El Nino events.” The tacit premise here would appear to be that those “attribution issues of 20th century warming” are harder to analyze than their 21st century counterparts.

# COP25 Video Presentation

By Anthony Watts – Re-Blogged From WUWT

As many of you know I was part of a live stream put on by The Heartland Institute two days ago from Madrid.

The segment that contained my portion of the overall presentation has now been posted on YouTube. I present it below without comment.

# Radicals Bully NH Munich Conference Center…Force Cancellation Of 13th Skeptic Climate Conference!

By – Re-Blogged From No Tricks Zone

Just like the 1930s, and again Munich. There’s no question that freedom of science and speech are under heavy attack in Germany after dozens of distinguished but dissenting scientists have seen their long planned science conference cancelled due to intimidation by leftwing extremists.

Germany caving in to leftist extremists. A skeptic climate conference gets cancelled at last minute due to coercion. Image: Antifa action in Phoenix, 2017, cropped from Carptrash – I, Einar Kvaran, License: CC BY-SA 4.0

This latest climate conference cancellation comes just after leftists coerced the University of Hamburg to disinvite political leaders from making speeches.

# Why We Love Scary News Stories

By Larry Kummer – Re-Blogged From Fabius Maximus

Summary: A new chapter has begun in the climate wars. The reason why reveals something about America – about us – that we must know if we are to steer America to a safe and prosperous future.

###### “I want doomster news stories in this newspaper, and plenty of them!”

In 2017 a new phase in the “debate” about the public policy response to climate change began with publication of “The Uninhabitable Earth” by David Wallace-Wells in New York magazine – “Famine, economic collapse, a sun that cooks us: What climate change could wreak – sooner than you think.” It is typical alarmist propaganda – exaggerations, misrepresentations, with little context about the odds of these horrific things happening.

# Quiet Sun Sets New Record for Spotless Days

Re-Blogged From WUWT

[Deep solar minima have been associated with colder climates. The Dalton Minimum and Maunder Minimum both were part of the Little Ice Age which ended maybe 200 years ago. Better get a good overcoat. –Bob]

As of November 1st, the current stretch of days without any observable sunspots in solar cycle 24 has reached a total of 228 spotless days in 2019 so far That’s 75% of the year so far. During the 2008 solar minimum, there were 268 days without sunspots, or 73% of the year.

# Epidemiology, Diet Soda and Climate Science

By Kip Hansen – Re-Blogged From WUWT

Epidemiologyis the study and analysis of the distribution (who, when, and where), patterns and determinants of health and disease conditions in defined populations. “

“It is the cornerstone of public health, and shapes policy decisions and evidence-based practice by identifying risk factors for disease and targets for preventive healthcare.”

# Putin Dismisses Climate Messiah Greta Thunberg

By Eric Worrall – Re-Blogged From WUWT

President Vladimir Putin has dismissed Greta Thunberg’s climate crusade, suggesting she has no idea of the cost of what she is demanding.

“I may disappoint you but I do not share everyone’s enthusiasm about Greta Thunberg’s speech [to the UN]. You know, the fact that young people, teenagers pay attention to the acute problems of the modern world, including ecology. That is right and very good. We need to support them. But when somebody uses children and teenagers in their own interests it deserves to be condemned.

Nobody explained to Greta that the modern world is complicated, and complex, and it changes fast. People in Africa and in many Asian countries want to be as wealthy as people in Sweden. How can it be done? By making them use solar energy which is plentiful in Africa? Has anyone explained the cost of it?”

# Noble Cause Corruption

By Dr Paul Rossiter – Re-Blogged From WUWT

In an earlier posting (WUWT https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/09/26/understanding-the-climate-movement-the-impotence-of-science/) I referred to the work of Douglas Murray (The Madness of Crowds) in helping to understand how the climate debate was just a Trojan horse being exploited for a much wider social change agenda being pursued by globalists and the socialist Left. In that article I alluded to some of the drivers that are enabling the movement, including Noble Cause Corruption and personal or corporate financial gain. Here I explore further the role of Noble Cause Corruption. While regular followers of WUWT will be familiar with some of the content, I think that pulling it together makes a compelling case.

# No climate emergency for polar bears or walrus means no climate emergency period

Reposted from Polar Bear Science  – Re-Blogged From WUWT

We are told the Arctic is warming twice as fast as anywhere else in the world, yet as the internet reverberates with shrill, almost-the-lowest-ice-extent-ever stories, polar bears, Pacific walrus, and the most common ice seal species (ringed and bearded seals, as well as harp seals), are all thriving.  Two new videos published by the GWPF on polar bears and walrus confront this conundrum and the conclusion is clear: if there is no climate emergency for polar bears, there is no climate emergency anywhere.

# The Regional Climate Protection Authority

By Willis Eschenbach – Re-Blogged From WUWT

I live in Sonoma County, one of the more “woke” counties in that “woker than you could ever hope to be” state, California. So of course, having solved all other problems, the Sonoma County Board of Supervisors has declared a “climate emergency”.

Here’s their justification for saying it is an EMERGENCY!!!

“Climate change is the most critical issue we face today and we universally are not acting fast enough to avert substantial damage to the economy, environment, and human health in the coming decades,” said Board of Supervisors Chair David Rabbitt. “On a local level, we continue to experience extreme climate-related events, including six years of recent droughts, devastating wildfires, and severe flooding.

# If You Put Junk Science In, You’ll Get Junk Science Out

By Chris Martz – Re-Blogged From WUWT

There are plenty of climate scientists in the world that I highly respect, many of whom I don’t share the same views with on climate change. However, these scientists are respectful towards others, they’re pretty honest with their data, and still have scientific integrity.

There are a select few scientists out there, however, whom I have lost all respect for － Dr. Michael Mann being one of them.

# Hurricane Dorian: Just Weather, Not Climate Change

By Chris Martz Weather – Re-Blogged From WUWT

We’ve made it three weeks without extreme weather and/or climate change hysteria making rounds on social media. Unfortunately, that streak has come to an end, making the lives of most weather forecasters like me a lot more difficult.

We are quickly approaching climatological peak of the Atlantic hurricane season¹ (September 10th) (Figure 1), thus it should be NO surprise to anyone that we have seen an uptick in tropical activity. However, I stand corrected － people are losing their minds about it.

# Amazon Fire History Since 2003

By Les Johnson – Re-Blogged From WUWT

We are told that Amazon fires are at record levels right now. This is a blatant lie. The only “record” is that Amazonian fires have DECREASED over the “record”.

This is what we are being told.

# Slowest Start to Atlantic Hurricane Season Since 2004

By Anthony Watts – Re-Blogged From WUWT

Watching the current maps and models, it appears the 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season is off to a slow start. For people that the depend on disaster porn (climate alarmists, media) that means no weather events to claim as being climate driven.

With no current areas of storm development, 2019 has had the slowest start since at least 2004 when Hurricane Charley was named on August 9th, 2004.

# Leaving the EU is ‘More Vital Than Climate Change’

• Climate change came third in list of priorities voters identified for Government
• Eleven per cent of participants mentioned climate as top issues facing country
• Second place was ‘tackling poverty’ on 12%, and ‘resolving Brexit’ top at 24%

Resolving Brexit should be the Government’s number-one priority – and is more important to voters than issues such as climate change, according to the results of a new survey.

Thirty-six per cent of people questioned by pollsters Opinium identified Brexit as the most important issue facing politicians.

MPs have so far been unable to reach a majority in the House of Commons to break the deadlock surrounding our departure from the EU – yet last month, they found enough common ground to declare a ‘climate emergency’.

Climate change came third in the list of priorities voters identified for the Government – 11 per cent mentioned it – while in second place was ‘tackling poverty’ on 12 per cent.

# Global Greening is Happening Faster Than Climate Change

By Matt Ridley – Re-Blogged From WUWT

REJOICE IN THE LUSH GLOBAL GREENING CO2 is plant food. The greening of the earth means more food for animals and greater crop yields for humans. Why is no one talking about it?

Amid all the talk of an imminent planetary catastrophe caused by emissions of carbon dioxide, another fact is often ignored: global greening is happening faster than climate change. The amount of vegetation growing on the earth has been increasing every year for at least 30 years. The evidence comes from the growth rate of plants and from satellite data.

# Green New Deal-Lite

By James Taylor – Re-Blogged From WUWT

When Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) formally introduced a congressional resolution for a “Green New Deal,” Republicans were handed a powerful, unexpected political gift. Leave it to weak-minded congressional Republicans to find a way to screw it up.

# Four Ways We Know Pre-Columbian America Was Plagued By Megadroughts

By Ashley Smart – Re-Blogged From Physics Today

# Claim: Powerful Hurricanes Strengthen Faster Now Than 30 Years Ago

By Anthony Watts – Re-Blogged From http://www.WattsUpWithThat.com

The storms intensify more rapidly today due largely to a natural climate phenomenon

From the DOE/PACIFIC NORTHWEST NATIONAL LABORATORY

# 405 Thousand Year Climate Cycle Discovered Related to Earth’s Orbit Around the Sun

By Anthony Watts – Re-Blogged From http://www.WattsUpWithThat.com

In ancient rocks, scientists see a climate cycle working across deep time.

A repeating shift in Earth’s orbit spans hundreds of millions of years

From THE EARTH INSTITUTE AT COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY

Scientists drilling deep into ancient rocks in the Arizona desert say they have documented a gradual shift in Earth’s orbit that repeats regularly every 405,000 years, playing a role in natural climate swings. Astrophysicists have long hypothesized that the cycle exists based on calculations of celestial mechanics, but the authors of the new research have found the first verifiable physical evidence. They showed that the cycle has been stable for hundreds of millions of years, from before the rise of dinosaurs, and is still active today. The research may have implications not only for climate studies, but our understanding of the evolution of life on Earth, and the evolution of the Solar System. It appears this week in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.