How Much Sun Could A Sunshine Shine?

By Willis Eschenbach – Re-Blogged From WUWT

It has been pointed out that while many of the global climate models (GCMs) are not all that good at forecasting future climate, they all do quite well at hindcasting the 20th-century global temperature anomaly [edited for clarity – w.]. Curious, that.

So I was interested in a paper from August of this year entitled The energy balance over land and oceans: An assessment based on direct observations and CMIP5 climate models. You’ll have to use SciHub using the DOI to get the full paper.

What they did in the paper is to compare some actual measurements of the energy balance, over both the land and the ocean, with the results of 43 climate models for the same locations. They used the models from the Fifth Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5).

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July 2015 Global Surface (Land+Ocean) and Lower Troposphere Temperature Anomaly & Model-Data Difference Update

By Bob Tisdale – Re-Blogged From http://www.WattsUpWithThat.com

This post provides an update of the values for the three primary suppliers of global land+ocean surface temperature reconstructions—GISS through July 2015 and HADCRUT4 and NCEI (formerly NCDC) through June 2015—and of the two suppliers of satellite-based lower troposphere temperature composites (RSS and UAH) through July 2015.  It also includes a model-data comparison.

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Another Lunatic on Parade

cropped-bob-shapiro.jpg   By Bob Shapiro

Climate Models are the embodiment of theories by several researchers. Nothing more! They do not spit out data – all they do is calculate results based on the creator’s (Model creator!) theory. In EVERY other field of science and mathematics, a Model MUST be validated by comparing the output to te real world. If the Model output disagrees with the real world, then the Model is wrong.

Climate Models have not been validated! So what you may ask. Suppose a drug maker comes out with a new drug, and the testing shows the results do not match the company’s expectations (their models). “But,” they say, “our Models show that this new wonder drug works, and that should be good enough,” and they release their drug onto the US market. My question is, How long before the company execs are thrown in jail?

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The Trouble with Global Climate Models

By Rud Istvan – Re-Blogged From http://www.WattsUpWithThat.com

The IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report, Working Group 1 (AR5 WG1) Summary for Policy Makers (SPM) was clear about the associated Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) archive of atmosphere/ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs, hereafter just GCM). CMIP5 results are available via the Royal [Koninklijk] Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI). The SPM said about CMIP5:

§D.1 Climate models have improved since the AR4. Models reproduce observed continental-scale surface temperature patterns and trends over many decades, including the more rapid warming since the mid-20th century and the cooling immediately following large volcanic eruptions (very high confidence).

§D.2 Observational and model studies of temperature change, climate feedbacks and changes in the Earth’s energy budget together provide confidence in the magnitude of global warming in response to past and future forcing.

Neither statement is true, as the now infamous CMIP5/pause divergence proves (illustrated below). CO2 continued to increase; temperature didn’t.

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February 2015 Global Surface (Land+Ocean) and Lower Troposphere Temperature Anomaly & Model-Data Difference Update

By Bob Tisdale – Re-Blogged From https://bobtisdale.wordpress.com

This post provides an update of the data for the three primary suppliers of global land+ocean surface temperature data—GISS through February 2015 and HADCRUT4 and NCDC through January 2015—and of the two suppliers of satellite-based lower troposphere temperature data (RSS and UAH) through February 2015.

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