Cold Weather Kills 20 Times as M any People as Hot Weather

By Joseph D’Aleo and Allan MacRae – Re-Blogged From
Cold weather kills. Throughout history and in modern times, many more people succumb to cold exposure than to hot weather, a s evidenced in a wide range of cold and warm climates.
Evidence is provided from a study of 74 million deaths in thirteen cold and warm countries including Thailand and Brazil, and studies of the United Kingdom, Europe, the USA, Australia and Canada.
Contrary to popular belief, Earth is colder-than-optimum for human survival. A warmer world, such as was experienced during the Roman Warm Period and the Medieval  Warm Period, is expected to lower winter deaths and a colder world like the Little Ice Age will increase winter mortality, absent adaptive measures.
These conclusions have been known for many decades, based on national mortality statistics.
Cold weather kills 20 times as many people as hot weather, according to an international study analyzing over 74 million deaths in 384 locations across 13 countries, published in The Lancet.
The Lancet study summary states:
“We collected data for 384 locations in Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, Italy, Japan, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Taiwan, Thailand, UK, and USA.
We analysed 74 225 200 deaths in various periods between 1985 and 2012. In total, 7.71% (95% empirical CI 7.43 –7.91) of mortality was attributable to non-optimum temperature in the selected countries within the study period, with substantial differences between countries, ranging from 3.37% (3.06 to 3.63) in Thailand to 11.00% (9.29 to 12.47) in China. The temperature percentile of minimum mortality varied from roughly the 60th percentile in tropical areas to about the 80–90th percentile in temperate regions.
More temperature -attributable deaths were caused by cold (7.29%, 7.02–7.49) than by heat (0.42%, 0.39–0.44). Extreme cold and hot temperatures were responsible for 0.86% (0.84–0.87) of total mortality.
Most of the temperature -related mortality burden was attributable to the contribution of cold. The effect of days of extreme temperature was substantially less than that attributable to milder but non-optimum weather.
This evidence has important implications for the planning of public-health interventions to minimize the health consequences of adverse temperatures, and for predictions of future effect in climate-change scenarios.”
The Guardian examined Excess Winter Mortality after the 2012/13 hard winter. A total of about 50,000 Excess Winter Deaths occurred that winter in the UK.
“Each year since 1950, the UK Office for National Statistics has looked at excess winter mortality…Excess winter mortality was 31,100 in England and Wales in 2012/13 – up 29% from the previous year. Figures for Scotland were also released recently showing a much smaller increase in winter deaths, up 4.1% to 19,908. In Northern Ireland meanwhile, the raw numbers were low but the increase was large – a rise of 12.7% to 559 deaths.
The methodology behind the maths is surprisingly simple; the ONS take an average of deaths in winter (those in December to March) and subtract the average of non-winter deaths (April to July of the current year and August to November of the previous year). The result is considered ‘excess’.“
In the milder climates of western and southern Europe, the Excess Winter Mortality is greater than in the colder northern climates, where people are more accustomed to colder winters and homes are better-designed to keep residents warm. – See Table 2.
Also energy costs in Europe are much higher due to their early adoption of inefficient and costly green energy schemes, forcing the poor to make difficult choices – in the UK
this is called “Heat or Eat”.
Similarly, the USA death rate in January and February is more than 1000 deaths per day greater than in July and August.
“Data from the US National Center for Health Statistics for 2001-2008 shows that on average 7,200 Americans died each day during the months of December, January, February and March, compared to the average 6,400 who died daily during the rest of the year. In 2008, there were 108,500 ‘excess’ deaths during the 122 days in the cold months (December to March).“
Despite claims that extreme heat is increasing and cold is decreasing, the un-adjusted statewide extreme temperature data shows the opposite. A total of 23 of the state all
-time record high temperatures occurred in the 1930s and 38 record highs occurred before 1960. There have been more record lows since the 1940s than record highs.
In the USA, the 1930’s was the warmest decade.
Source: Dr. John Christy, Senate and House Testimony
Even in warmer climates such as Australia, Thailand and Brazil a similar pattern exists. Australians are up to 30% more likely to die during winters than summers, as determined in a study by the Queensland University of Technology (QUT).
“Across the country severe winters that are colder and drier than normal are a far bigger risk to health than sweltering summers that are hotter than average.
QUT Associate Professor Adrian Barnett, a statistician with the Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation and the lead researcher of the study, said death rates in Australian cities were up to 30 per cent higher in winter than summer.
The researchers analyzed temperature, humidity and mortality data from 1988 to 2009 for Adelaide Brisbane, Melbourne, Perth and Sydney.”
Statistics Canada also reports deaths by month. The graph below shows that the Canadian death rate in January was more than 100 deaths/day greater than in August
for the years 2001 to 2006. In 2006, there were 5,640 excess deaths during the winter months in Canada.
Canada has lower Excess Winter Mortality Rates than the USA and much lower than the UK. This is attributed to our better adaptation to cold weather, including better home insulation and home heating systems, and much lower energy costs than the UK, as a result of low-cost natural gas due to shale fracking and our lower implementation of inefficient and costly green energy schemes. The problem with green energy schemes is they are not green and they produce little useful energy, primarily because they are too intermittent and require almost 100% fossil-fueled (or other) backup.
The Alberta Climate Change initiative seeks to reduce the use of fossil fuels and increase the use of green energy. In Europe, where green energy schemes have been widely implemented, the result is higher energy costs that are unaffordable for the elderly and the poor, and increased winter deaths. Europe an politicians are retreating from highly
-subsidized green energy schemes and returning to fossil fuels. When misinformed politicians fool with energy systems, innocent people suffer and die.

Climate-Related Deaths and Insecurity

By Andy May – Re-Blogged From

In this post we will discuss the assertion that there will be more climate-related deaths due to man-made global warming. This is the fifth post in a series of seven.

There will be more heat-related deaths

The IPCC AR5 report does not have much to say regarding climate-related mortality, they do mention that heat-related deaths will increase in several places, the following is from page 49 of the WG2 technical summary:

“At present the worldwide burden of human ill-health from climate change is relatively small compared with effects of other stressors and is not well quantified. However, there has been increased heat-related mortality and decreased cold-related mortality in some regions as a result of warming (medium confidence).”

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Killer Cold

By Willis Eschenbach – Re-Blogged From

I found an interesting article on weather-related deaths.

Deaths Attributed to Heat, Cold, and Other Weather Events in the United States, 2006–2010

Objectives—This report examines heat-related mortality, cold-related mortality, and other weather-related mortality during 2006–2010 among subgroups of U.S. residents.

Methods—Weather-related death rates for demographic and area-based subgroups  were computed using death certificate information. Adjusted odds ratios for weather-related deaths among subgroups were estimated using logistic regression.

Here’s their money graph. It shows the number of deaths by the age of the person dying.

weather related deaths

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Cold Winter Refugee Crisis

By Paul Driessen and Joe D’Aleo – Re-Blogged From

A brutal cold spell could kill refugees. Paris COP21 delegates need to discuss this climate issue.

Even after the latest Paris massacres – and previous radical Islamist atrocities in the USA, France, Britain, Canada, Spain, India, Iraq, Syria, Nigeria and elsewhere – politicians absurdly say hypothetical manmade global warming is the greatest threat facing humanity. In reality, fossil fuel contributions to climate change pose few dangers to people or planet, and winters kill 20 times more people than hot weather.

After being assured snowy winters would soon be something only read about in history books, Europe was shaken by five brutally cold winters this past decade. Thousands died, because they were homeless, lived in drafty homes with poor heating systems, or could not afford adequate fuel.


A youngster braces against the cold at a camp for Syrian refugees in Lebanon’s Bekaa Valley after the first winter snows fell in 2013. photo: Reuters

It could happen again, with even worse consequences. “Millions of desperate people are on the march,” Walter Russell Mead recently wrote in the Wall Street Journal. “Sunni refugees driven out by the barbarity of the Assad regime in Syria, Christians and Yazidis fleeing the pornographic violence of Islamic State, millions more of all faiths and no faith fleeing poverty and oppression without end.”

Where are they heading? Mostly not into neighboring Arab countries, most of which have yanked their welcome mats. Instead, if they’re not staying in Turkey, they’re going north to Europe – into the path the extremely cold “Siberian Express” has increasingly taken. Germany alone could face the challenge of feeding and sheltering 800,000 to 1,000,000 freezing refugees this winter.

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Weekly Climate and Energy News Roundup #181

The Week That Was: May 30, 2015-  Brought to You by

By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)
Climate and Health – Lancet: The British medical journal Lancet released what is billed as the most comprehensive study on the relationship between temperature extremes and human mortality. According to the abstract: “Although studies have provided estimates of premature deaths attributable to either heat or cold in selected countries, none has so far offered a systematic assessment across the whole temperature range in populations exposed to different climates. We aimed to quantify the total mortality burden attributable to non-optimum ambient temperature, and the relative contributions from heat and cold and from moderate and extreme temperatures.

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Winters Not Summers Increase Mortality and Stress the Economy

By Joseph D’Aleo and Allan MacRae – Re-Blogged From

Global warming alarmists continue to over-emphasize the danger of heat and ignore cold in their papers and in stories for the media. The danger associated with this misdirection is that cold weather kills many more people that hot weather.

This conclusion is clearly supported by many studies of populations in a wide range of climates. Examples are provided below from a study of thirteen countries, as well as national studies from the United Kingdom, the USA, Canada and Australia.

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Weekly Climate and Energy News Roundup #176

The Week That Was: April 11, 2015 – Brought to You by The Science and Environmental Policy Project

By Ken Haapala, President, SEPP – Re-Blogged From 

Climate and Health: By using the Freedom of Information Act, Chris Horner, of the Competitive Enterprise Institute, obtained an email addressed to “Richard Winsor” the imaginary employee of EPA used by Lisa Jackson as a disguise for receiving and sending email. The particular email in question, dated March 18, 2009, discussed strategic communications and suggested EPA shift its tactics from emphasizing the weakening science of global warming to the fear of pollution, especially air quality, with emphasis on the EPA’s Children’s Health Office. As discussed in the February 7 and February 14 TWTWs, the EPA has done this, making many highly questionable claims about respiratory diseases, such as asthma, even though the causes are not known and the disease may be greatly over-diagnosed, not only in the US but in England as well. TWTW cited research that made the claims dubious, at best.

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