Silver Miners’ Q4’19 Fundamentals

By Adam Hamilton – Re-Blogged From Silver Phoenix

The carnage in the silver miners’ stocks has been apocalyptic, fueled by the astounding COVID-19 stock panic.  As terrified traders frantically dumped everything and ran for the hills, silver and its miners’ stocks crashed.  That catastrophic anomaly has potentially created epic contrarian buying opportunities.  The silver miners’ recently-reported Q4’19 results reveal whether their fundamentals support a massive rebound.

As long-time silver-stock traders are painfully aware, this tiny sector is no stranger to adversity.  Only the most-hardened contrarians dare chasing the white metal’s occasional monster skyrocketings.  Back in late February, silver was rallying nicely as gold surged over $1600 on mushrooming COVID-19 fears.  But over the next 17 trading days silver collapsed 35.8%, with nearly 3/4ths of that loss in the final week alone!

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On UK Climate Policies

By Neil Lock – Re-Blogged From WUWT

“I’d expect that some probing by independent experts into the economic calculations, and the assumptions on which they are built, might bear fruit.” But where are these calculations, and who are the unbiased experts who have quality controlled them? I couldn’t find any such calculations, or the names of any such experts. Perhaps, I thought, I’d better take a look at this myself.

So, I set out to learn as much as I could about the economic calculations which – so we’re supposed to believe – justify the extreme measures proposed, all the way up to total de-carbonization of the UK economy, to avoid alleged catastrophic damage from global warming. This essay is the result of that exercise. If it reads like a cross between a layman’s guide to the economics of global warming and a political rant, that’s because it’s both!

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Weekly Climate and Energy News Roundup #400

The Week That Was: February 22, 2020, Brought to You by www.SEPP.org

By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project

Quote of the Week: “I never guess. It is a capital mistake to theorize before one has data. Insensibly one begins to twist facts to suit theories, instead of theories to suit facts.” – Sir Arthur Conan Doyle. [H/t Eric Wagner]

Number of the Week: £108.5 million (about $140 million) in 2018

The Scientific Method: There appears to be no clear, widely accepted definition of science or the scientific method. Professor of Applied Mathematics and philosopher Christopher Essex considers science to be an adventure. A long game of generations and part of the ascent of Man. Not just a fad invented in the 17th century. In an unpublished paper, “The Scientific Adventure,” he wrote for the 100th anniversary of Einstein’s 1905 discoveries, he stated:

“Others try to embrace it as a recipe. They say, to be scientific, do this, then do that, but not the other way around. They talk of the scientific method as if there is just one; as if scientific discovery were clean, orderly and uncontroversial, supervised by grizzled elders of authority. But the search for scientific discovery is anything but. It is messy, contentious, factional, but also wondrous, inspired, and above all serendipitous. It is human.”

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Struggling U.S. Dairy Farmers Fight to Survive

By Associated Press- Re-Blogged From Headline Wealth

At Rosendale Dairy, each of the 9,000 cows has a microchip implanted in an ear that workers can scan with smartphones for up-to-the-minute information on how the animal is doing — everything from their nutrition to their health history to their productivity. Feed is calibrated to deliver a precise diet and machines handle the milking. In the fields, drones gather data that helps bump up yields for the row crops grown to feed the animals.

Technology has played an important role in agriculture for years but it’s become a life and death matter at dairy farms these days, as low milk prices have ratcheted up pressure on farmers to seek every possible efficiency to avoid joining the thousands of operations that have failed.

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Excess costs of UK Weather Dependent Renewable Energy: 2018

Reposted from edmhdotme – Re-Blogged From WUWT

Summary:  2018 using Renewable Energy Foundation data

Screenshot 2019-11-22 at 13.17.15.png

In 2018 UK Weather dependent renewables generated some 7.7 Gigawatts of power from an installed fleet of ~34 Gigawatts achieving a satisfactory overall capacity factor for Renewables of ~23%.  The installed fleet cost ~84£billion in capital costs with average costs of ~11£billion/Gigawatt produced in capital costs and ~42£billion/Gigawatt produced long-term.  Because of the comparative capacity factors Offshore wind and Solar PV were roughly equivalent in capital costs at ~15£billion / Gigawatt produced and ~60£billion / Gigawatt produced over the long-term.  The direct comparison in the UK situation with similar measures for traditional generation technologies, Gas-firing and Nuclear, can be seen to be substantially lower above.

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Gold Mid-Tiers’ Q3’19 Fundamentals

By Adam Hamilton – Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle

The mid-tier gold miners just reported their results for a phenomenal gold quarter.  In Q3’19 this metal surged after its first bull-market breakout in years, driving much-higher prevailing prices.  That should’ve led to soaring profits for these mid-tiers in the sweet spot for stock-price upside potential.  Last quarter’s results are the most important this sector has seen in a long time, a key fundamental test for gold miners.

Four times a year publicly-traded companies release treasure troves of valuable information in the form of quarterly reports.  Required by the US Securities and Exchange Commission, these 10-Qs and 10-Ks contain the best fundamental data available to traders.  They dispel all the sentiment distortions inevitably surrounding prevailing stock-price levels, revealing corporations’ underlying hard fundamental realities.

The global nature of the gold-mining industry complicates efforts to gather this important data.  Many mid-tier gold miners trade in Australia, Canada, Mexico, the United Kingdom, and other countries with quite-different reporting requirements.  These include half-year reporting rather than quarterly, long 90-day filing deadlines after fiscal year-ends, and very-dissimilar presentations of operating and financial results.

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Roadmap 2045 – Part 4

By Rud Istvan, – Re-Blogged From WUWT

Here are links to Part 1Part 2,   Part3~ctm

This is the fourth of 6 posts dissecting SoCalEd plan for a carbon neutral service territory by 2045. It is a straightforward plan to electrify 70% of buildings. Why 70%? Because electrifying pre-existing commercial buildings beyond lighting and AC is virtually impossible.

The following SoCalEd image makes this reasonably clear.

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Scam Of Offshore Wind Energy

By Paul Driessen – Re-Blogged From WUWT

The latest “renewable, sustainable” energy claims show the IEA belongs in an insane asylum

Can anti-fossil fuel policies based on climate crisis alarmism possibly get any more insane than this?

In what might be described as a pre-Halloween trick of ginormous proportions, the International Energy Agency (IEA) now asserts that “renewable, sustainable” energy output will explode over the next two decades. Certainly for onshore wind and solar energy – but especially for offshore wind, says the IEA.

“Offshore wind currently provides just 0.3% of global power generation,” IEA executive director Fatih Birol noted. But “wind farms” constructed closer than 37 miles from coastlines around the world, where waters are less than 60 meters (197 feet) deep, could generate 36,000 terawatt-hours (36 million gigawatt-hours or 36 billion megawatt-hours) of electricity a year, he assures us. That’s well above the current global demand of 23,000 terawatt hours, Birol and a new IEA report say.

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Gold Miners’ Profits To Soar

By Adam Hamilton – Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle

The gold miners are likely to report blowout profits in this spinning-up Q3’19 earnings season.  Higher production, stable costs, and much-higher gold prices should combine for some super-impressive results.  That’s going to leave the still-undervalued gold miners much more attractive fundamentally, supporting bigger capital inflows and much-higher stock prices.  Q3 should prove the gold miners’ best quarter in years.

Stock prices are ultimately dependent on underlying corporate earnings.  Over the long term all stock prices gravitate towards some reasonable multiple of their underlying companies’ profits.  Herd greed and fear can force stock prices to disconnect from fundamentals for some time, but eventually they trump sentiment.  So there’s nothing more important for stock-price-appreciation potential than foundational profits.

Most of the major gold miners trade in the US or Canada, and thus are required to report their results quarterly.  The SEC deadline for filing 10-Q quarterly reports is 40 calendar days after quarter-ends, or November 9th for the recently-finished Q3’19.  The major gold miners tend to report in the latter end of that window.  The definitive list of them comes from the leading gold-stock trading vehicle and benchmark.

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Wind Farm Back-of-the-Envelope Economic Analysis

By Larry F. Brown, PhD – Re-Blogged From WUWT

We visited a wind farm in southern Utah recently. I’ve always been curious about the costs, profitability, and physical size of these things as well as the footprint and environmental impact. I had 3 meetings with the man in charge of maintenance of the wind farm, a landowner who leases land accommodating 4 of the turbines, and a man who works in the industry in Colorado – and did some internet/newspaper research.

The maintenance superintendent told me they have 27 towers, that the installation cost was about $2 million each, and that each turbine is rated at 2.3 megawatts/hr but produces an average of 1.3 megawatts/hr (= 1,300 kW/hr). The blades are 187 ft long so the total height is nearly 400 feet high, and the tower at the base is about 13 ft in diameter encapsulated in huge quantity of concrete. The project pays about $1 million in taxes to the community each year and has a 20-year lease.

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Why Can’t America Fill a Pothole?

By Kyle Smith – Re-Blogged From Prager Universty

Why can’t America build or repair infrastructure on a par with countries in Europe or Asia? Why are our bridges, roads, and airports not what they should be? Aren’t we the richest and most technologically savvy country in the world? Who or what is holding us back? Kyle Smith of National Review has the surprising (and frustrating) answer.

Please watch the Video.

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Real(ish)Things That Don’t Matter, Part Trois

By David Middleton – Re-Blogged From WUWT

In Part One of this series, we looked at Peak Oil and its irrelevance to energy production and also discussed the relevance of Seinfeld. In Part Deux, we looked at “abiotic oil,” a real(ish) thing that really doesn’t matter outside of academic discussions and SyFy blogs.

Part Trois will explore perhaps the most meaningless notion to ever come out of academia: Energy Returned On Energy Invested (EROEI or EROI depending on spelling skill). EROEI is like what Seinfeld would have been if it was written by Douglas Adams.

EROEI

EROEI is the preferred energy metric for Malthusians, environmental activists, Warmunists and proponents of uneconomic energy sources. Invention of this concept is generally credited to an ecology professor…

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Nonmonetary Cause Of Lower Prices

By Keith Weiner – Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle

Over the past several weeks, we have debunked the idea that purchasing power—i.e. what a dollar can buy—is intrinsic to the currency itself. We have discussed a large non-monetary force that drives up prices. Governments at every level force producers to add useless ingredients, via regulation, taxation, labor law, environmentalism, etc. These are ingredients that the consumer does not value, and often does not even know are included in the production process. However, these useless ingredients can get quite expensive, especially in industries that are heavily regulated such as health care.

What Force Pushes Prices Down?

There is another non-monetary force, and this one is pushing prices down. Producers are constantly finding useless ingredients that they can remove. In the research for his Forbes article on falling wages, Keith discovered that dairy producers found ways to eliminate 90% of the ingredients that go into producing milk between 1965 and 2012. For example, they reduced by two thirds the labor hours that support each cow.

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New Inflation Indicator

By Keith Weiner – Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle

Last week, we wrote that regulations, taxes, environmental compliance, and fear of lawsuits forces companies to put useless ingredients into their products. We said:

“For example, milk comes from the ingredients of: land, cows, ranch labor, dairy labor, dairy capital equipment, distribution labor, distribution capital, and consumable containers.”

There are eight necessary ingredients, without which milk cannot be produced.

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What Causes Loss Of Purchasing Power

By Keith Weiner – Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle

We have written much about the notion of inflation. We don’t want to rehash our many previous points, but to look at the idea of purchasing power from a new angle. Purchasing power is assumed to be intrinsic to the currency. We have said that the problem with the word inflation is that it treats two different phenomena as if they are the same. One is the presumed effect of rising quantity of dollars. The other is the effect of rising regulatory and tax burdens.

Let’s use milk as an example. Suppose milk was $1 per gallon. Many would say that a dollar is worth one gallon of milk. Or, alternatively, a dollar’s purchasing power is one gallon of milk. Suppose that later, the price of milk goes up to $2. Then, people say that the dollar’s purchasing power falls by 50%, to half a gallon of milk. Regardless of what you call it, everyone would agree that the dollar buys less than it did.

Until now. Let us explain.

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An Assessment of the 4th National Climate Assessment

By Andy May – Re-Blogged From WUWT

The U.S. Fourth National Climate Assessment (NCA4) Volume II is out and generating a lot of discussion. Volume II, Impacts Risks and Adaptation in the United States to climate change can be downloaded here (Reidmiller, et al. 2018). Volume I, published last year, on the physical science behind the assessment is here (Wuebbles, et al. 2017).

The mainstream media (MSM) is breathlessly reporting about it using the following template or something similar:

“[Volume II] of the Fourth National Climate Assessment shows how [America/city/state/poor/people of color/old people/young people, etc.] are already feeling the effects of climate change from [wildfires/droughts/floods/disease/hurricanes/etc.].

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Gold Miners’ Q3’18 Fundamentals

By Adam Hamilton – Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle

The major gold miners’ stocks remain mired in universal bearishness, largely left for dead.  They are just wrapping up their third-quarter earnings season, which proved challenging.  Lower gold prices cut deeply into cash flows and profits, and production-growth struggles persisted.  But these elite companies did hold the line on costs, portending soaring earnings as gold recovers.  Their absurdly-cheap stock prices aren’t justified.

Four times a year publicly-traded companies release treasure troves of valuable information in the form of quarterly reports.  Companies trading in the States are required to file 10-Qs with the US Securities and Exchange Commission by 40 calendar days after quarter-ends.  Canadian companies have similar requirements at 45 days.  In other countries with half-year reporting, many companies still partially report quarterly.

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At IPCC talks Trump Administration emphasizes scientific “uncertainty” and “value of fossil fuels”… MAGA!

By David Middleton – Re-Blogged From WUWT

From the No Schist Sherlock files of the American Association for the Advancement of Science of America…

Top researchers are huddled with government officials in South Korea this week to confront the scientific consensus that maintaining a safe global climate will require immediate and aggressive action… Continue reading

Germany’s Energiewende Program Exposed as a Catastrophic Failure

By Larry Hamlin – Re-Blogged From WUWT

An audit of the EU’s leading climate alarmism energy policy program concludes that Germany’s Energiewende is a colossal and hugely expensive debacle.

EU climate alarmist champion Germany has its Energiewende program exposed as a catastrophic failure with enormous costs

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Antibiotics for Appendicitis? Surgery Often Not Needed

By Associated Press – Re-Blogged From Newsmax Health

When emergency tests showed the telltale right-sided pain in Heather VanDusen’s abdomen was appendicitis, she figured she’d be quickly wheeled into surgery. But doctors offered her the option of antibiotics instead.

A new study from Finland shows her choice is a reasonable alternative for most patients with appendicitis. Five years after treatment with antibiotics, almost two-thirds of patients hadn’t had another attack.

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Unaffordable Green Energy: Charity Begs for More Volunteer Knitters, to Help Poor People Survive Winter

By Eric Worrall – Re-Blogged From WUWT

h/t JoNova – According to the charity KOGO, green energy champion Victora, Australia is experiencing unprecedented demand for charity provided warm woolies to help poor people who can no longer afford to heat their homes.

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Solar Electricity Installations Look Like a Gravy Train.

[A regular reader from Melbourne, Australia has this analysis of PV Panel home installation costs. BTW, today’s currency conversion rate is 1 USD = 1.36418 AUD. -Bob]

By tonytran2015 – Re-Blogged From Survival Tricks

With electricity price running out of control, anticipated to hit 40c/kWh in the near future, I have to consider investing in a home system of Solar Panels to reduces my expenditure. The good news is there are some Solar Panels on sale at $150 per square meter and my friend can install them for me at a cost of $150 per square meter. So I drew up the following financial analysis for the prospective installation of 1m2 of panel. The results are quite surprising: Solar electricity is not matured enough to be economically competitive. The Green actions by Australian Governments are mostly a gravy train with well connected, greedy people already having First Class seats on it.

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States Rush to Rein In Prescription Costs, and Drug Companies Fight Back

By Robert Pear – Re-Blogged From NY Times

States around the country are clamping down on pharmaceutical companies, forcing them to disclose and justify price increases, but the drug manufacturers are fighting back, challenging the state laws as a violation of their constitutional rights.

Even more states are, for the first time, trying to regulate middlemen who play a crucial role by managing drug benefits for employers and insurers, while taking payments from drug companies in return for giving preferential treatment to their drugs.

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Twenty-four states have passed 37 bills this year to curb rising prescription drug costs, according to Trish Riley, the executive director of the National Academy for State Health Policy.CreditJulio

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Gold-Stock Summer Lows

By Adam Hamilton – Re-Blogged From http://www.Gold-Eagle.com

The gold miners’ stocks have been drifting sideways to lower like usual in their summer doldrums. They are likely near their major seasonal lows ahead of a strong autumn rally, a great buying opportunity. Gold rebounding higher will be the primary driver fueling the gold-stock advance, dispelling today’s bearish psychology. And strong Q2 production growth will likely play a sizable role in restoring favorable sentiment.

Market summers have long been gold’s weakest time of the year seasonally. Junes and early Julies in particular are simply devoid of the big recurring demand spikes seen during most of the rest of the year. With traders vacationing to take advantage of warm sunshine and kids being out of school, markets take a back seat. So there’s no outsized gold buying driven by income-cycle or cultural factors this time of year.

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Soaring Fuel Costs, Falling Crop Prices Punish Global Farmers

By Thomson Reuters – Re-Blogged From Newsmax

Farmers worldwide are feeling the pinch as fuel costs rise to near four-year highs just as they plant and harvest their fields, eroding agricultural income already hamstrung by depressed crop prices.

The agricultural sector from the United States to Russia, and Brazil to Europe, is seeing profits harmed by the rise in diesel prices. The global oil benchmark, Brent crude, touched $80 a barrel for the first time since late 2014 on Thursday.

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Nuclear Power Subsidies Threaten Wind and Solar Power… Proof That Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction

By David Middleton – Re-Blogged From http://www.WattsUpWithThat.com

NukeLifeline

The push to save U.S. nuclear plants for the sake of fighting climate change is threatening support for the bread and butter of clean power: wind and solar.

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Gold Miners’ Q2’16 Fundamentals

By Adam Hamilton – Re-Blogged From http://www.Gold-Eagle.com

The gold miners’ stocks have skyrocketed this year as investors started returning to this long-abandoned sector. Many have tripled, quadrupled, or even quintupled since mid-January alone! But are such epic gains fundamentally justified? Much insight into this crucial question for investors can be gleaned from the gold miners’ latest quarterly financial and operational results. Their Q2 reports just finished coming in.

Companies trading on the US stock markets are required by the Securities and Exchange Commission to file quarterly earnings reports four times a year. For normal quarters that don’t end fiscal years, these 10-Q reports are due 45 calendar days after quarter-ends. They are a great boon to financial-market transparency and investors seeking to understand companies, yielding a treasure trove of information.

The gold miners are no exception, so about 6 weeks after quarter-ends I eagerly look forward to digging into their latest quarterly reports to see how they’re faring. And the just-reported second quarter of 2016 proved an exceedingly-strong one for gold stocks. Their benchmark HUI NYSE Arca Gold BUGS Index soared 38.4% higher in Q2 on a mere 7.4% gold rally! Gold stocks’ 5.2x upside leverage to gold was extreme.

The gold stocks began 2016 at fundamentally-absurd price levels relative to gold, the overwhelmingly-dominant driver of their profits and hence ultimately stock prices. Coming out of mid-January’s crazy 13.5-year secular low, the gold stocks were certainly overdue to soar in a massive mean-reversion rally. But with the HUI skyrocketing 182.2% at best in just 6.5 months by early August, the gains have been huge!

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Gold Miners’ Strong Q3 Results

By Adam Hamilton – Re-Blogged From http://www.Gold-Eagle.com

The beleaguered gold-mining sector continues to be plagued by monumental universal bearishness.  Nearly everyone assumes the gold miners are doomed, that they can’t survive for long in a sub-$1200-gold environment.  But this belief is totally wrong, a consequence of extreme fear’s fog of war.  The gold miners’ underlying earnings fundamentals remain very strong, as evidenced by their recent Q3 results.

In all the stock markets, corporate profits ultimately drive stock prices.  Because a stock simply represents a fractional stake in its underlying company’s future earnings stream, all stock prices eventually revert to some reasonable multiple of those profits.  These earnings are truly the only fundamental driver of stock prices.  All deviations from righteous valuations based on profits are just the temporary products of herd sentiment.

The gold stocks are suffering such an extreme psychological anomaly today, drowning in mind-boggling depths of popular fear and despair.  The leading HUI gold-stock index just slumped to a brutal new 13.3-year secular low this week!  The apathy and hate for this sector is nothing short of astounding.  Anyone masochistic enough to make a bullish contrarian case on gold stocks will be peppered with scathing ridicule.

But in the midst of any universal sentiment extreme, prudent investors and speculators must disconnect from the herd emotions to take a rational look at the underlying profits fundamentals.  And there is zero doubt today that prevailing gold-stock prices are truly fundamentally absurd.  The last time gold stocks were priced at these levels per the HUI ages ago in July 2002, the gold price was merely trading around $305.

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