The Danger of Making #Coronavirus Decisions Without Reliable Data

From STAT – Re-Blogged From WUWT

A fiasco in the making? As the coronavirus pandemic takes hold, we are making decisions without reliable data

By John P.A. Ioannidis

The current coronavirus disease, Covid-19, has been called a once-in-a-century pandemic. But it may also be a once-in-a-century evidence fiasco.

At a time when everyone needs better information, from disease modelers and governments to people quarantined or just social distancing, we lack reliable evidence on how many people have been infected with SARS-CoV-2 or who continue to become infected. Better information is needed to guide decisions and actions of monumental significance and to monitor their impact.

Draconian countermeasures have been adopted in many countries. If the pandemic dissipates — either on its own or because of these measures — short-term extreme social distancing and lockdowns may be bearable. How long, though, should measures like these be continued if the pandemic churns across the globe unabated? How can policymakers tell if they are doing more good than harm?

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CNN Touts the Climate Benefits of Chinese Coronavirus

By Eric Worrall – Re-Blogged From WUWT

The climate alarmist community is repeatedly praising the alleged “benefits” of the deadly Covid-19 outbreak.

There’s an unlikely beneficiary of coronavirus: The planet

By Rebecca Wright, CNN
Updated 1005 GMT (1805 HKT) March 17, 2020

Hong Kong (CNN)Factories were shuttered and streets were cleared across China’s Hubei province as authorities ordered residents to stay home to stop the spread of the coronavirus.

It seems the lockdown had an unintended benefit — blue skies.

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Pandemic Virus Impacts An Economy Already In Decline Before The Crisis

By David Haggith – Re-Blogged From Silver Phoenix

The soup lines hadn’t formed yet. Jobs had not even noticeably started to dry up, but they weren’t as easy to find anymore. You had to be angry to quit without having a better job firmly in hand. Stocks were climbing furiously above an economy that had been slowly ebbing away since summer. Sales were down for months, so revenues were down for months, and profits were down. Funding in the world’s easiest credit market — interbank repos — was extremely tight — so tight the Fed had to come to the rescue every single day for months, and the problem was only getting worse.

Such were the times before COVID-19 struck the world in 2020 like an asteroid from some far reach of the solar system crumbling the walls that already sat on cracked foundations, burying in ash a partying world that hadn’t yet figured out it was already slowly dying from its own internal decay.

Diamond Princess Mysteries

By Willis Eschenbach – R4e-Blogged From WUWT

OK, here are my questions. We had a perfect petri-dish coronavirus disease (COVID-19) experiment with the cruise ship “Diamond Princess”. That’s the cruise ship that ended up in quarantine for a number of weeks after a number of people tested positive for the coronavirus. I got to wondering what the outcome of the experiment was.

So I dug around and found an analysis of the situation, with the catchy title of Estimating the infection and case fatality ratio for COVID-19 using age-adjusted data from the outbreak on the Diamond Princess cruise ship (PDF), so I could see what the outcomes were.

As you might imagine, before they knew it was a problem, the epidemic raged on the ship, with infected crew members cooking and cleaning for the guests, people all eating together, close living quarters, lots of social interaction, and a generally older population. Seems like a perfect situation for an overwhelming majority of the passengers to become infected.

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China Says This Drug Is “Clearly Effective” Against Coronavirus

By Victor Tangermann – Re-Blogged From Futurism

According to a new study, it can turn coronavirus tests negative in just four days.

According to Japanese media, Chinese medical authorities have found that an antiviral drug called “favipiravir” has shown promise in treating COVID-19 patients, The Guardian reports.

“It has a high degree of safety and is clearly effective in treatment,” Zhang Xinmin, an official at China’s science and technology ministry, told reporters on Tuesday.

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Quarantines May Backfire

The mistaken presumption that a person “catches a cold” from someone else, or a flu virus, or a coronavirus, is the basis for calling a quarantine.

The fallacy of person-to-person transmission is ingrained in the population as news reports of vacationers trapped in China during a coronavirus are flown back to the US and are found to have COVID-19 corona virus that may spread to their family members.  But COVID-19 is not spreading into the community.  Online maps showing the almost stagnant number of coronavirus-confirmed cases in each State are rapidly vanishing from view on the internet.

There is person-to-person transmission of the virus, but not necessarily person-to-person transmission of the disease.  To better explain this, we have to dig back into the annals of epidemiology (the study of disease).

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Study Suggests Covid-19 Outbreak in Wuhan Has Been Controlled

Re-Blogged From WUWT

This new science paper suggests  “Considerable countermeasures have effectively controlled the Covid-19 outbreak in Wuhan”. That suggests that similar countermeasures being enacted worldwide might have an effective result.

This paper has not yet been peer-reviewed, but given the speed (or sluggishness) of that process, the authors thought they should do a pre-print first. Sometimes the web can be the harshest peer-review. – Anthony


Evolving Epidemiology and Impact of Non-pharmaceutical Interventions on the Outbreak of Coronavirus Disease 2019 in Wuhan, China

medRxiv preprint doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.03.20030593. The copyright holder for this preprint (which was not peer-reviewed) is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.

It is made available under a CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license .

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