The Danger of Making #Coronavirus Decisions Without Reliable Data

From STAT – Re-Blogged From WUWT

A fiasco in the making? As the coronavirus pandemic takes hold, we are making decisions without reliable data

By John P.A. Ioannidis

The current coronavirus disease, Covid-19, has been called a once-in-a-century pandemic. But it may also be a once-in-a-century evidence fiasco.

At a time when everyone needs better information, from disease modelers and governments to people quarantined or just social distancing, we lack reliable evidence on how many people have been infected with SARS-CoV-2 or who continue to become infected. Better information is needed to guide decisions and actions of monumental significance and to monitor their impact.

Draconian countermeasures have been adopted in many countries. If the pandemic dissipates — either on its own or because of these measures — short-term extreme social distancing and lockdowns may be bearable. How long, though, should measures like these be continued if the pandemic churns across the globe unabated? How can policymakers tell if they are doing more good than harm?

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CNN Touts the Climate Benefits of Chinese Coronavirus

By Eric Worrall – Re-Blogged From WUWT

The climate alarmist community is repeatedly praising the alleged “benefits” of the deadly Covid-19 outbreak.

There’s an unlikely beneficiary of coronavirus: The planet

By Rebecca Wright, CNN
Updated 1005 GMT (1805 HKT) March 17, 2020

Hong Kong (CNN)Factories were shuttered and streets were cleared across China’s Hubei province as authorities ordered residents to stay home to stop the spread of the coronavirus.

It seems the lockdown had an unintended benefit — blue skies.

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Pandemic Virus Impacts An Economy Already In Decline Before The Crisis

By David Haggith – Re-Blogged From Silver Phoenix

The soup lines hadn’t formed yet. Jobs had not even noticeably started to dry up, but they weren’t as easy to find anymore. You had to be angry to quit without having a better job firmly in hand. Stocks were climbing furiously above an economy that had been slowly ebbing away since summer. Sales were down for months, so revenues were down for months, and profits were down. Funding in the world’s easiest credit market — interbank repos — was extremely tight — so tight the Fed had to come to the rescue every single day for months, and the problem was only getting worse.

Such were the times before COVID-19 struck the world in 2020 like an asteroid from some far reach of the solar system crumbling the walls that already sat on cracked foundations, burying in ash a partying world that hadn’t yet figured out it was already slowly dying from its own internal decay.

Diamond Princess Mysteries

By Willis Eschenbach – R4e-Blogged From WUWT

OK, here are my questions. We had a perfect petri-dish coronavirus disease (COVID-19) experiment with the cruise ship “Diamond Princess”. That’s the cruise ship that ended up in quarantine for a number of weeks after a number of people tested positive for the coronavirus. I got to wondering what the outcome of the experiment was.

So I dug around and found an analysis of the situation, with the catchy title of Estimating the infection and case fatality ratio for COVID-19 using age-adjusted data from the outbreak on the Diamond Princess cruise ship (PDF), so I could see what the outcomes were.

As you might imagine, before they knew it was a problem, the epidemic raged on the ship, with infected crew members cooking and cleaning for the guests, people all eating together, close living quarters, lots of social interaction, and a generally older population. Seems like a perfect situation for an overwhelming majority of the passengers to become infected.

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China Says This Drug Is “Clearly Effective” Against Coronavirus

By Victor Tangermann – Re-Blogged From Futurism

According to a new study, it can turn coronavirus tests negative in just four days.

According to Japanese media, Chinese medical authorities have found that an antiviral drug called “favipiravir” has shown promise in treating COVID-19 patients, The Guardian reports.

“It has a high degree of safety and is clearly effective in treatment,” Zhang Xinmin, an official at China’s science and technology ministry, told reporters on Tuesday.

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Quarantines May Backfire

The mistaken presumption that a person “catches a cold” from someone else, or a flu virus, or a coronavirus, is the basis for calling a quarantine.

The fallacy of person-to-person transmission is ingrained in the population as news reports of vacationers trapped in China during a coronavirus are flown back to the US and are found to have COVID-19 corona virus that may spread to their family members.  But COVID-19 is not spreading into the community.  Online maps showing the almost stagnant number of coronavirus-confirmed cases in each State are rapidly vanishing from view on the internet.

There is person-to-person transmission of the virus, but not necessarily person-to-person transmission of the disease.  To better explain this, we have to dig back into the annals of epidemiology (the study of disease).

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Study Suggests Covid-19 Outbreak in Wuhan Has Been Controlled

Re-Blogged From WUWT

This new science paper suggests  “Considerable countermeasures have effectively controlled the Covid-19 outbreak in Wuhan”. That suggests that similar countermeasures being enacted worldwide might have an effective result.

This paper has not yet been peer-reviewed, but given the speed (or sluggishness) of that process, the authors thought they should do a pre-print first. Sometimes the web can be the harshest peer-review. – Anthony


Evolving Epidemiology and Impact of Non-pharmaceutical Interventions on the Outbreak of Coronavirus Disease 2019 in Wuhan, China

medRxiv preprint doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.03.20030593. The copyright holder for this preprint (which was not peer-reviewed) is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.

It is made available under a CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license .

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Fed Slashes Rates To Zero And Introduces QE In Response To COVID-19

By Arkadiusz Sieroń – Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle

On Sunday, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates and restarted quantitative easing to stimulate economy hit by the pandemic of COVID-19. That’s already its second move prior to this Wednesday’s FOMC. What does it imply for gold?

It’s Serious, Really.

Winter is not coming. Winter is here already. The situation does not look too good. Although the epidemic seems on the way out in China and South Korea, the situation in Europe and the US is deteriorating quickly. As you can see in the charts below, the new daily cases are quickly rising, making the total number of infected people doubling each 3-4 days. And please note that the chart shows only confirmed cases – the true number of infected people is almost certainly larger, especially in the US, where shockingly low number of tests have been conducted.

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Social Changes With COVID-19 are a Prelude to Life With Less Fossil Fuels

By Ronald Stein – Re-Blogged From WUWT

While the world is feverously trying to reduce emissions from fossil fuel usage, we get hit with the horrific contagious Coronavirus COVID-19. We’ve seen extensive self-imposed social adjustments to transportation that are very similar to what will be required to live with less fossil fuels in the future.

We’ve seen a serious reduction in the usage of the transportation infrastructures of airlines and cruise ships, as well as automobiles and trucks, and their impact on the leisure and entertainment industries, all to avoid crowds.

Before fossil fuels and the thousands of products made from petroleum derivatives, and electricity that followed, the world was a zero-sum snake pit that was a war against one another scrounging for food, water, and shelter. In the 1800’s most people never traveled 100-200 miles from where they were born. Life expectancy throughout Europe hovered between 20 and 30 years of age.

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This, Not Hand Sanitizer, Will Save Us from the COVID-19 Coronavirus

By Foster Kamer – Re-Blogged From Futurism

In the global health war against the COVID-19 coronavirus, there are two measures we know of that effectively prevent the spread of the outbreak while the world waits on a vaccine: Quarantine/social isolation, and cleaning your hands. But what’s the best — if not only surefire way — to get that right?

Washing them with soap and water.

Not hand sanitizer.

Not just water.

It’s soap and water.

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How to Prepare Your Home and Family for a Spreading Outbreak

By Associated Press – Re-Blogged From Headline Wealth

As the new coronavirus keeps turning up in more places, health experts say it’s wise to prepare for wider spread. But people shouldn’t panic or hoard large amounts of supplies, they stress.

So what should you do?

Some common-sense steps that are useful for any emergency, such as severe weather, can help get you and your family ready in case you need to hunker down.

More than a dozen states have COVID-19 cases. An outbreak “could last for a long time in your community,” the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention warns in its preparation advice.

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