China or US?

By Alasdair Macleod – Re-Blogged From Gold Money

China has made some silly errors in its conflict with the US, reflecting the arrogance that often afflicts every state actor. But the appearance that China is being backed into a corner over Huawei, trade tariffs and Hong Kong is misleading. China is progressing her own plans, and they do not require an accommodation with America. With Russia in tow, she is now the chief foreign influencer for up to three-quarters of the world’s population, so it is American hegemony that’s being backed into a corner.  One day, this will be reflected in a currency shoot-out. This article concludes that the dollar is more at risk than the yuan, the opposite of perceptions in western capital markets.

Introduction

In the undeclared war between the US and China, the focus has been on the obvious battles. Huawei has been badly wounded but looks like surviving. The trade tariff battle continues and the battle in Hong Kong is ongoing and yet to be resolved.

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When Will The Next Credit Crisis Occur?

By Alasdair Macleod – Re-Blogged From http://www.Silver-Phoenix500.com

The timing of any credit crisis is set by the rate at which the credit cycle progresses. People don’t think in terms of the credit cycle, wrongly believing it is a business cycle. The distinction is important, because a business cycle by its name suggests it emanates from business. In other words, the cycle of growth and recessions is due to instability in the private sector and this is generally believed by state planners and central bankers.

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