A Can Too Big For The Fed And ECB

There are lies, damned lies, and economists. Whether these economists work for the government or a bank, they spend all their time on the computer extrapolating current trends with minor adjustments.

If you want to understand the future, don’t spend your life preparing and constantly revising an Excel sheet with masses of economic data. Collective human behaviour is extremely predictable. But not by spreadsheet analysis but by studying history.

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Crashing Markets and the Threat of Deflation Will Lead to the Next Great Inflation

Stefan Gleason, Money – Re-Blogged From Headline Wealth

As the coronavirus spreads fear, sickness, and death, a specter haunts investors – the specter of deflation.

Despite central bankers’ attempts to push inflation rates higher, equity and commodity markets are collapsing. Inflation expectations as reflected in tanking U.S. Treasury yields, meanwhile, appear headed toward zero – and perhaps even below.

“I think that we have a real danger of deflation in the economy right now,” former Trump economic advisor Stephen Moore told Fox Business’ Maria Bartiromo last weekend.

Clearly, symptoms of deflation and leading indicators of economic contraction are now manifesting in dramatic ways:

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Irrational Fears Of Deflation

The benefits of a deflation of prices brought about by a combination of sound money and markets free from government intervention have been demonstrated to be the best economic environment, the denial of which in favour of inflationary financing has led to repeated monetary and systemic failures.

This article explains how this has come about and puts the record on deflation straight. The development of macroeconomic theory had to deny the benefits of a deflation of prices, unbelievably telling us we need higher prices to stimulate our consumption.

Deflation and investment funded by savings is a far better, natural economic environment than the false gods of easy debt and money printing. There can be no return to the stability of gentle price deflation without seismic shifts in economic thinking and government responsibilities.

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Inflation: Dead Or Alive?

By GE Christenson – Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle

Breaking news: Silver briefly reached $18.00 and closed at $17.85. The DOW rose again to 28,645.

Inflation, Deflation, Stagflation, and Hyperinflation? So What?

Inflation: The banking cartel demands inflation of the currency supply. The cartel encourages massive debt and collects the interest and fees. They want inflation because it increases debt and repayment is easier. With global debt at $250 trillion, the cartel is successful.

Governments account for a large percentage of global debt. They spend more, buy votes, feed currency units to cronies, and borrow to cover the revenue shortfall. Inflation makes the debt load easier to tolerate.

Corporations want mild inflation to boost revenues, profits and stock prices.

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Central Bank Time Machine

We are now witnessing the death throes of the free market. The massive and record-breaking global debt overhang, which is now $250 trillion (330% of GDP), demands a deflationary deleveraging depression to occur; as a wave of defaults eliminates much of that untenable debt overhang. The vestiges of the free market are trying to accomplish this task, which is both healthy and necessary in the long term—no matter how destructive it may seem during the process. Just like a forest fire is sometimes necessary to clear away the dead brush in order to promote viable new growth. However, the “firemen” of today (central banks) are no longer in the business of containing wildfires, but instead proactively flooding the forest with a deluge of water to the point of destroying all life.

In point of fact, the free market is no longer being allowed to function. Communism has destroyed capitalism, as the vital savings and investment dynamic has been obliterated. Central banks have decided that savers deserve no return on their so-called risk-free investments and have hence forced into existence humongous bubbles in junk bonds and equity markets worldwide. They have destroyed the savings and investment dynamic and turned time backward.

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Peak Crazy!

By Mike Savage – Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle

In the unending blowing of the most epic financial market bubbles of all time, Germany may have just announced “peak crazy”. Overnight they issued 30-year bonds that had a NEGATIVE yield. With all of the financial shenanigans going on it is not even a surprise that they did it.

The real surprise is that the “authorities” were surprised when people didn’t line up for the honor of losing money financing their profligate debt. According to Zerohedge, the German government issued $2 billion of these bonds and the Bundesbank (German Central Bank) was forced to buy 58% of the offering.

What this really should tell everyone is that those who actually earn their money rather than conjure it up out of nowhere actually care what type of return they are going to get for the risk that is being taken. Of course, when money is conjured up out of nowhere and at virtually no cost to the “printers” any return of capital is more than they started with. There could also be a few hedge funds out there speculating that rates will go even lower and lead to a short-term profit. (If there are any buyers at an even more negative rate).

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Deflation Is Everywhere—If You Know Where To Look

By Keith Weiner – Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle

At a shopping mall recently, we observed an interesting deal at Sketchers. If you buy two pairs of shoes, the second is 30% off. Sketchers has long offered deals like this (sometimes 50% off). This is a sign of deflation.

Regular readers know to wait for the punchline.

Manufacturer Gives Away Its Margins

We do not refer merely to the fact that there is a discount. We are not simply arguing that Sketchers are sold cheaper—hence deflation. That is not our approach. Let’s look beneath the surface, and drill deeper.

Sketchers makes the sort of shoes that you wear frequently, especially for exercise. They are not made to last forever, and not haute couture that will be worn once every blue moon. If the customer likes the Sketchers styling and they fit well (e.g. for wide feet), then he will be back to buy the next pair in three or four months.

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Monetary Innovation In The Ancient World

By Keith Weiner – Re-Blogged From Silver Phoenix

We think we are the only generation to be smart. In the 19th century, they did not have the internal combustion engine. In the 18th century, they did not have the railroad. In the 17th century, they did not have the piano. So, most people assume, they were dumb. They did not know about smart phones, so they would not have understood anything. Such as money.

So let’s tell the story of the ancient city of Orinthus. They were innovators in money, millennia ahead of their time…

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Division of Labor

Orinthus was inhabited by the first people to settle down with agriculture and fishing. Soon, a new class of evolved: those who crafted goods out of riverbank clay, animal hides, and even stone quarried from the local hills. With the advent of real production and trade, they soon discovered it’s terribly inefficient if the guy who made leather needed to find a fisherman who needed shoes whenever he was hungry. They realized they needed money.

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But “We Owe It To Ourselves”

By Keith Weiner – Re-Blogged From http://www.Gold-Eagle.com

Have you ever heard someone say this? It falls into the category of, it’s so perverse, so wrong, and so wrong-headed that there has got to be a constituency out there somewhere, to assert this!

First, let’s head off at the pass the objection that the majority of US government debt is held by foreigners. As of March this year, the US Treasury estimates that $6.3 trillion worth of Treasury bills and bonds are owned by foreign holders. This is not even close to the majority of it.

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Global Trends, Events And News

By Don Swenson – Re-Blogged From http://www.Silver-Phoenix500.com

Change is in the ‘air’ and 2017 is likely to lead to major changes within our global political/economic/religious/scientific system. People are starting to think about all the various issues which will be emerging all around our planet. The issues are complex and confusing as paradox is a major part of the problem. Our world mostly operates with paradox and contrarian perplexities. Let’s review our global situation briefly for further understanding and comprehension:

Middle-East Situation

The wars and chaos over in the Middle-East are tragic and must eventually be resolved. Thousands have been killed and millions are seeking refuge. Basically, the Islamic countries (within this Middle East territory) do not see eye to eye with Western hegemonic goals and visions. Since the end of WWI this region has been in continuing turmoil…and recent events are now culminating into serious chaos (leading to WW III potentially). Syria is unable to govern itself. Iraq is unable to govern itself. The same goes for Iran, Afghanistan, Libya, Egypt, Yemen, Somalia, Sudan, Gambia, Nigeria, and a host of similar Islamic nations where the rule of law does not work effectively. Leaders cannot solve any of the core political secular problems. The core issues are actually spiritual!

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Illusory Gains

By Egon von Greyerz – Re-Blogged From http://www.Gold-Eagle.com

Investors in most countries make the mistake of measuring their returns based on their home market and their domestic currency. This might have worked when they only had access to their local investment market. But that time is long gone. Now we have a global economy and most Westerners have access to securities worldwide. Still, in for example Germany, the UK or Japan, investors measure returns in their local currency. Even more so in the US. Due to the size of the US economy and the importance of the dollar, few Americans look at investment markets or currencies in other countries.

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The Fractional Reserve Banking Sideshow

cropped-bob-shapiro.jpg   By Bob Shapiro

I have seen a recent flurry of articles, including one by Austrian School Economist, Frank Shostak, of the Mises Institute, discussing the evils of Fractonal Reserve Banking (FRB) regarding the Boom-Bust Cycle.

While I also am a Free Market guy, subscribing to the Austrian School, I think the critics of FRB are allowing themselves to fight the wrong fight – to be diverted by a red herring.

Let us consider three countries. Each one has a Money Supply of $1 Trillion, which has remained constant for several years. Country 1 has as its money a Gold Standard. Country 2 uses a 100% paper currency. And Country 3 has a basic, unchanging money supply made up of 1/10th base money (either Gold or paper money – take your pick), plus 90% bank credit of the FRB type, totaling $1 Trillion.

Image result for fractional reserve banking

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Will Trump Bring Inflation To America’s Shores?

By Stefan Gleason – Re-Blogged From http://www.Gold-Eagle.com

Something is brewing in the economy. Since the election of Donald Trump, interest rates have spiked, copper prices have surged, and various sectors of the stock market have swung “bigly” on speculation of what “Trumponomics” will bring.

Scores of triumphant Republican commentators are already painting a bullish picture of the Trump economy. The GOP – which will control the White House, Congress, and most state governments – has a rare opportunity to implement a pro-growth agenda.

Republicans squandered their last great window of opportunity. George W. Bush and his Congressional allies grew government spending at a faster clip than the economy and saddled the country with trillions of dollars in new debt.

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Economic Stagnation

By Gerald Peters – Re-Blogged From http://www.Silver-Phoenix500.com

So we have once again seen official reports about sub-par economic growth. Some are constantly perplexed as to why growth is so weak. I believe it will eventually become more obvious to everyone that debt is one of the major problems causing our current stagnation.

Looking at the above chart, we see GDP growth rates have been getting weaker each decade. The economy used to grow at 7 or 8 %…then 5 or 6%…then 4%…then 3%. Currently. There is only 2% growth. Moreover, after the next recession we will be lucky to see 1% growth as the norm. Follow the trend and we see that the US economy will probably be at 0% economic growth after 2030. To be sure after 2040 we will probably see negative growth as the norm. By the way, the chart of retail sales growth looks the same. This trend has continued regardless of which political party controls the White House or Congress.

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The Inflation Imperative

By Gary E Christenson – Re-Blogged From Deviant Investor

The western welfare states (US, UK, EU etc.) have borrowed more digital currency than can be repaid at current values. The choices are:

Massive inflation: a bad choice

Default: an even worse choice

From Jim Rickards (Strategic Intelligence – Sept. 2016 issue):

“Given the non-sustainability of sovereign debt under current monetary regimes and the necessity for global inflation, there are three possible endgame scenarios facing us now.”

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Japan’s “Helicopter Money” Play: Road To Hyperinflation Or Cure For Debt Deflation?

[I DO NOT agree with the Helicopter Money thesis. Governments’ expansions of their money supplies unrestrictedly were the cause of every Hyperinflation the world has known, as for example in Wiemar Germany and more recently in Zimbabwe. –Bob]

By Ellen Brown – Re-Blogged From http://www.Silver-Phoenix500.com

Fifteen years after embarking on its largely ineffective quantitative easing program, Japan appears poised to try the form recommended by Ben Bernanke in his notorious “helicopter money” speech in 2002. The Japanese test case could finally resolve a longstanding dispute between monetarists and money reformers over the economic effects of government-issued money.

When then-Fed Governor Ben Bernanke gave his famous helicopter money speech to the Japanese in 2002, he was talking about something quite different from the quantitative easing they actually got and other central banks later mimicked. Quoting Milton Friedman, he said the government could reverse a deflation simply by printing money and dropping it from helicopters. A gift of free money with no strings attached, it would find its way into the real economy and trigger the demand needed to power productivity and employment.

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Unintended Consequences (Part 1)

By John Rubino – Re-Blogged From Dollar Collapse

Somewhere back in the depths of time the world got the idea that easy money — that is, low interest rates and high levels of government spending — would produce sustainable growth with modest but positive inflation. And for a while it seemed to work.

But that was an illusion. What actually happened was textbook, long-term, surreally-vast misallocation of capital in which individuals, companies and governments were fooled into thinking that adding new factories, stores and infrastructure at a rate several times that of population growth would somehow work out for the best.

China, as with so many other things, was the epicenter of this delusion. In response to the 2008-2009 financial crisis it borrowed more money than any other country ever, and spent most of the proceeds on infrastructure and basic industry. It’s steel-making capacity, already huge by 2008, kept growing right through the Great Recession, and now dwarfs that of any other country.

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Goldman Is Dead Wrong

By Michael Pento – Re-Blogged From http://www.Gold-Eagle.com

Goldman Sachs has been predicting the demise of gold for the past few years. Back in July of 2015, Jeff Currie (Global Head of Commodities Research at the investment firm) went on record predicting the price of the yellow metal would fall below $1,000 per ounce by the start of 2016. However, that prediction failed to materialize; despite the fact that gold was already below $1,100 at the time he made the call.

Nevertheless, being wrong on the direction of gold last year did not prevent him from once again urging investors to short the commodity in February of this year; claiming it would fall to $1,000 per ounce within 12 months.  His rationale for anticipating the price decline is that gold is primarily a “safe haven” asset in times of economic and market turmoil and that the U.S. faced very little recession risk—so there is no reason for investors to seek the shelter of gold.

However, Goldman Sachs, which is a bastion of Keynesian apologists–like most on Wall Street, fails to grasp what really drives the price of gold…and what has caused it to surge 18% so far in 2016.

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The Truth About GDP

By Alasdair Macleod – Re-Blogged From http://www.Gold-Eagle.com

“I can prove anything by statistics except the truth” – George Canning

Canning’s aphorism is as valid today as when he was Britain’s Prime Minister in 1817. Unfortunately, his wisdom is ignored completely by mainstream economists. Nowhere is this error more important than in defining economic activity, where the abuse of statistics is taken to levels that would have even surprised Canning.

Today we describe the economy as being in one of two states, growth or recession. We arrive at a judgment of its condition by taking the sum total of the transactions selected by statisticians and then deflating this total by a rate of inflation devised by them under direct or indirect political direction. Nominal gross domestic product is created and thereby adjusted and termed real GDP.

The errors in the method encourage a bias towards a general increase in the GDP trend by under-recording the rate of price inflation. From here it is a short step to associate rising prices only with an increase in economic activity. It also follows, based on these assumptions, that falling prices are to be avoided at all costs.

Assumptions, assumptions, all are assumptions. They lead to a ridiculous conclusion, that falling prices are evidence of falling demand, recession or even depression. Another of Canning’s aphorisms was that there is nothing so sublime as the truth. There’s no sublimity here. If there was, the improvement in everyone’s standard of living through falling prices for communications, access to data, and the technology in our homes and everyday life could not possibly have happened.

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How the Great Depression 2.0 Will Soon Unfold

By Michael Pento – Re-Blogged From http://www.PentoPort.com

Those who place their faith in a sustainable economic recovery emanating through government fiat will soon be shocked. Colossal central bank counterfeiting and gargantuan government deficit spending has caused the major averages to climb back towards unchanged on the year. Zero interest rate and negative interest rate policies, along with unprecedented interest rate manipulations, have levitated global stock markets. But still, sustainable and robust GDP growth has been remarkably absent for the past 8 years.

Equity prices have now become massively disconnected from underlying economic activity, and the recession in corporate revenue and earnings growth is exacerbating this overvalued condition. Throw in the fact that earnings have been manipulated higher by Wall Street’s recent prowess in the art of financial engineering, and you get an extremely combustible cocktail.

I have been on record saying this will end in chaos and here is how I think it will unfold: Continue reading

This Actually Is Going To Happen Next Year

By John Rubino – Re-Blogged From Dollar Collapse

The intellectual groundwork is being laid for the next stage of the Money Bubble, and it’s going to be epic. Here are excerpts from two articles that appeared over the weekend (and which should be read in their entirety). Both deal with Japan, which went all-in on debt monetization, lost badly, and now needs a new plan.

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The Economy Is In Liquidation Mode

If you’re an American over a certain age, you remember roller skating rinks (I have no idea if it caught on in other countries). This industry boomed in the 1970’s disco era. However, by the mid 1980’s, the fad was fading. Imagine running a rink company at the end of the craze. You know it is not going to survive for long. How do you operate your business?

You milk it.

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Four Conflicts Of Interest Between Governments & Retirement Investors

By Daniel R Amermn – Re-Blogged From http://www.Silver-Phoenex500.com

Most retirement account and other long term investors continue to follow the same financial strategies they’ve been following for decades, believing that the “science” of modern finance will reliably build wealth and security for them.

Meanwhile, for some years now and as a matter of openly stated policy, the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and Bank of Japan, as well as the central banks of other nations have sought to create what are known as “negative real rates of return”.

What needs to be understood is that there are four direct conflicts of interest between current government policies and the most widely followed retirement investment strategies. Indeed, the purpose of massive monetary interventions around the world is to override the usual market forces, in order to meet governmental goals.

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Two Percent Inflation And The Fed’s Current Mandate

Ron Paul   By Ron Paul

Over the last 100 years the Fed has had many mandates and policy changes in its pursuit of becoming the chief central economic planner for the United States. Not only has it pursued this utopian dream of planning the US economy and financing every boondoggle conceivable in the welfare/warfare state, it has become the manipulator of the premier world reserve currency.

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The Business Cycle & Government

cropped-bob-shapiro.jpg   By Bob Shapiro

Sometimes, people make stupid choices.

Wait! Let me be more kind. Sometimes, people make choices which don’t work out as well as they had hoped.

You may have a passion for reproductions of historic horse and buggy rigs, and you decide to invest your life savings to open a plant to produce buggy whips. My expectation (I certainly can be mistaken myself) is that your venture won’t meet your profit hopes.

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The Inflation/Deflation Rollercoaster

Guest Post By Michael Pento

Politicians and central bankers are desperately trying to convince investors that the economy has returned to what they deem as a “pre-crisis normality”. But the truth is the global economy has never been in a more fragile condition. In an example of just how precarious the Fed-engineered asset bubbles have become, all of the 2014 U.S. equity market gains were wiped out by just a few really bad trading days in October.

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When Exactly Are Falling Prices Bad?

Peter-Schiff   Guest Post By Peter Schiff

The sudden fall in the price of oil provides a unique opportunity to examine the widely held belief that deflation is economic poison. As many governments and central banks have vowed to fight deflation at all costs in 2015, the question could hardly be more significant.

While falling prices may strike the layman as cause for celebration, economists believe that it can kick off a nasty, and often inescapable, negative cycle, which many believe leads inevitably to a prolonged recession, or even a depression. However, these same economists acknowledge that falling energy prices may offer a stimulus, equivalent to an enormous “tax cut,” particularly for lower and middle

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