A Week Of Stock Market Turmoil With More To Come

By Mark J Lundeen – Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle

Can you believe it? After a week where the Dow Jones saw four days of extreme market volatility (Dow Jones 2% days), and the NYSE saw two days of extreme market breadth (NYSE 70% A-D days), the Dow Jones closed UP 455 points from last week’s close. After all that the Dow Jones in its Bear’s Eye View Chart below is little changed from last week.

Looking at the Dow Jones in its daily bars (next), it’s very apparent how after Friday, February 21st someone (Mr Bear?) changed the rules. From October 1st to February 21st average daily volatility for the Dow Jones was only 0.50%. In the past two weeks it has leapt to 3.01%. And though the Dow Jones closed up 455 for the week, looking at the chart below one thing comes to my mind – Mr Bear is once again hard at work.

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Mr Bear Took His Pound Of Flesh From The Stock Market This Week

By Mark J Lundeen – Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle

At last week’s close, with the Dow Jones’ BEV value at -1.89%, I said I’d remain long-term bullish as long as the Dow Jones stayed above its BEV -7.5% line, or even if it remained in single-digits BEV values.  As it turned out I could only remain long-term bullish until Wednesday of this week with the Dow Jones closing at a BEV of -8.78%.  Thursday the Dow Jones closed with a BEV of -12.81%, and Mr Bear’s slaughter of the innocents on Wall Street continued on Friday, closing the week with the Dow Jones seeing a BEV of -14.02%.

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Gold Price Pre-Fed Update

President Roosevelt made owning gold for American citizens, with minor exceptions, illegal in 1933. See Executive Order # 6102. Begin the DOW to gold ratio analysis in 1933.

Many people have discussed the Dow to gold ratio. It fell from over 40 in the year 2000 when the DOW (11,750) was expensive, and gold sold for less than $300. In those days paper assets (DOW, bonds, S&P500 stocks) looked like they would rise forever.

Everything changes.

By 2011 the DOW (12,800) had fallen 10% from its 2007 high and gold peaked at an all-time high over $1,900. The ratio dropped to about 7.

The ratio rises and falls in long waves.

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Downside Price Rotation Dominates After Manufacturing Data

By Chris Vermeulen – Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle

Our research team has been all over this longer-term Pennant/Flag setup and the potential for the breakdown in the US/Global markets.  The US manufacturing data released today confirmed what we believed would be the outcome of the extended trade issues between the US and China – a moderate slowdown in US manufacturing.  Couple that with a US Fed that is attempting to navigate very difficult economic developments, consumers headed into the Christmas season unsure of what lies ahead, the US political environment (almost complete chaos) and uncertainties with foreign markets and we have a perfect setup for “investor malaise”.

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Fighting Inflation, Fighting Deflation, Fighting For Their Lives

By Mark J Lundeen – Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle

The Dow Jones Index closed the week down 5.38% from its last all-time high of July 15th, a month ago. But looking at the Dow Jones as Mr Bear does in the BEV chart below, with every new all-time high registered as a 0.0%, or BEV Zero, and all other daily closings as a percentage decline from their last all-time high, comes short of displaying what has happened in the stock market since July 15th.

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A Long Shadow Creeps Over The Economy This Summer

By David Haggith – Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle

It’s time to turn around and see the darkness that the Fed sees looming over you. Earnings season is already extending signs of recession with the first corporate reports coming in far darker than expectations that were already twilight dim in FactSet’s estimations, which pegged earnings as likely to show a 2% contraction.

Even the Fed sees problems ahead. Jerome Powell’s speech to congress has been called “one of the most dovish Fed speeches ever!” While that quickened the heart of a sugar-hungry stock market, what does it really tell you about how soon or likely the Fed sees recession looming for the economy or sees trouble for the stock market? Why else would Father Fed suddenly become the “most dovish … ever?” Does the Fed become its “most dovish … ever” when the economy and the stock market are doing great?

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NYSE Margin Debt 1979 To Present

By Mark J Lundeen – Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle

The Dow Jones Index in the BEV chart below closed this week a bit below last week’s close; 1.06% instead of last week’s 1.00%, down six cents on the dollar, or basically unchanged from last week.  As I said last week the bulls aren’t in a hurry, but I’m sure the bulls remain optimistic that the Dow Jones will make history sometime in the weeks and months to come.

What happens after that is the question.  Last October the Dow Jones made a handful of BEV Zero’s, and then began a three month 18% correction, as seen in the BEV chart below.

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