Gold Miners’ Profits To Soar

By Adam Hamilton – Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle

The gold miners are likely to report blowout profits in this spinning-up Q3’19 earnings season.  Higher production, stable costs, and much-higher gold prices should combine for some super-impressive results.  That’s going to leave the still-undervalued gold miners much more attractive fundamentally, supporting bigger capital inflows and much-higher stock prices.  Q3 should prove the gold miners’ best quarter in years.

Stock prices are ultimately dependent on underlying corporate earnings.  Over the long term all stock prices gravitate towards some reasonable multiple of their underlying companies’ profits.  Herd greed and fear can force stock prices to disconnect from fundamentals for some time, but eventually they trump sentiment.  So there’s nothing more important for stock-price-appreciation potential than foundational profits.

Most of the major gold miners trade in the US or Canada, and thus are required to report their results quarterly.  The SEC deadline for filing 10-Q quarterly reports is 40 calendar days after quarter-ends, or November 9th for the recently-finished Q3’19.  The major gold miners tend to report in the latter end of that window.  The definitive list of them comes from the leading gold-stock trading vehicle and benchmark.

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The Relentless Road to Recession

By David Haggith – Re-Blogged From The Great Recession Blog 

“Show me the data,” demand those who cannot see a recession forming all around them and who keep parroting what they are told about the economy being strong because it is what they want to believe; yet, the data look like an endless march through a long summer down the road to recession.

And that is what you are going to get in this article, a seemingly endless parade of data along the recessionary road. This is for the data hounds.

As we end the summer of our discontent when few would deny that most economic talk turned toward recession and, as we begin the time when I said the stock market appears it may fulfill my prognostication of another October surprise, it’s time to lay out — again — the latest data that support my summer recession prediction. We’ll have to wait until next year for the government to officially declare a recession if one did start in September. (Yes, September is a summer month.) In the meantime, the data stream is a long line of confirmation.

Air-Conditioner Maker Lennox Cuts Forecast, Citing ‘Significantly Cooler Temperatures’

From CNBC – Re-Blogged From WUWT

Published Mon, Jul 22 2019 10:48 AM EDT Updated Mon, Jul 22 2019 12:57 PM EDT

Kate Rooney@Kr00ney

Key Points

  • Lennox International lowers its 2019 guidance, partially based on colder temperatures.
  • “Significantly cooler temperatures and higher precipitation across the United States adversely impacted the HVAC market in the second quarter,” says Chairman and CEO Todd Bluedorn.
  • The guidance cut comes after a heat wave swept through the United States this weekend. June was the hottest since the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration began recording temperatures in the 1800s and July is on track to break its own record.

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What The World Doesn’t Need Now Is Lower Rates

The Q2 earnings season is upon us and the risks to the rally that started after the worst December on record at the close of last year is in serious jeopardy. We received a glimpse of this with some of the current companies that have reported. For example, to understand how dangerous this earnings reporting season can be, take a look at what one of the largest US multinational firms had to say recently after it reported earnings. The Minnesota-based Fastenal, which is the largest fastener distributor in North America, reported worse-than-expected second-quarter earnings and revenue. Shares of Fastenal promptly tanked more than 4%. But what the management said about the quarter was very interesting. The company said in its press release that its strategy to raise prices to offset tariffs placed to date on products sourced from China were not sufficient to also counter general inflation in the marketplace.

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US GDP Not All It Was Cracked Up To Be

You may be worried my prediction that a recession will start sometime this summer is not looking too good. So was I after first-quarter corporate earnings started coming in better than what economists expected. Except that barely “beating expectations” is kind of pathetic when expectations are dumbed down as far as they were.

(Note that I have also stated each time I repeat this prediction that we won’t know until half a year beyond summer whether or not it happened, because initial GDP reports are often revised down after the next quarter (perhaps in order to make the next quarter look better quarter on quarter) as facts come in more clearly and because no recession is officially declared until a month after two full quarters have seen total GDP decline — not a decline in the growth rate, but an actual drop in GDP.)

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Companies to Buy Back Fewer Shares

By Thomson Reuters – Re-Blogged From Newsmax

U.S. companies’ shopping spree for their own shares helped put a floor on market declines in 2018. Don’t look for the same level of support in 2019.

Wall Street’s recent volatility has optimists betting that buybacks could provide the market with an even better buffer in 2019. But many strategists see the lift from buybacks – a major factor behind the bull market – losing some force as earnings growth slows while tax policy bonanzas fizzle out.

“Companies bought back around 2.8 percent of shares outstanding in 2018. That was a substantial support to the market and bigger than dividends,” said Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at Cresset Wealth Advisors in Chicago.

case of dollar bills to buy back stock shares

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Stealth Reason Why The Stock Market Keeps Going Up

By Gordon T Long – Re-Blogged From Silver Phoenix

Key Message:

  • The US stock market continues to rise because it is increasingly dominated by shrinking “availability & supply”,
  • All three stock “Pools” are shrinking in a stealth & unappreciated fashion,
  • There is an increasing potential for a “Minsky Melt-Up” based on an even stronger US dollar (i.e. An Emerging Market Flight to Safety),
  • Expect a coming M&A corporate focus using inflated stock as the takeover currency to answer slowing corporate growth …. further reducing listing and outstanding share pools.
  • Expect market rotation from Growth to Value in the near term versus the final Topping of the equity markets.

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