US GDP Not All It Was Cracked Up To Be

You may be worried my prediction that a recession will start sometime this summer is not looking too good. So was I after first-quarter corporate earnings started coming in better than what economists expected. Except that barely “beating expectations” is kind of pathetic when expectations are dumbed down as far as they were.

(Note that I have also stated each time I repeat this prediction that we won’t know until half a year beyond summer whether or not it happened, because initial GDP reports are often revised down after the next quarter (perhaps in order to make the next quarter look better quarter on quarter) as facts come in more clearly and because no recession is officially declared until a month after two full quarters have seen total GDP decline — not a decline in the growth rate, but an actual drop in GDP.)

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Companies to Buy Back Fewer Shares

By Thomson Reuters – Re-Blogged From Newsmax

U.S. companies’ shopping spree for their own shares helped put a floor on market declines in 2018. Don’t look for the same level of support in 2019.

Wall Street’s recent volatility has optimists betting that buybacks could provide the market with an even better buffer in 2019. But many strategists see the lift from buybacks – a major factor behind the bull market – losing some force as earnings growth slows while tax policy bonanzas fizzle out.

“Companies bought back around 2.8 percent of shares outstanding in 2018. That was a substantial support to the market and bigger than dividends,” said Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at Cresset Wealth Advisors in Chicago.

case of dollar bills to buy back stock shares

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Stealth Reason Why The Stock Market Keeps Going Up

By Gordon T Long – Re-Blogged From Silver Phoenix

Key Message:

  • The US stock market continues to rise because it is increasingly dominated by shrinking “availability & supply”,
  • All three stock “Pools” are shrinking in a stealth & unappreciated fashion,
  • There is an increasing potential for a “Minsky Melt-Up” based on an even stronger US dollar (i.e. An Emerging Market Flight to Safety),
  • Expect a coming M&A corporate focus using inflated stock as the takeover currency to answer slowing corporate growth …. further reducing listing and outstanding share pools.
  • Expect market rotation from Growth to Value in the near term versus the final Topping of the equity markets.

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Sears Warns It May Go Out of Business

By Thomson Reuters – Re-Blogged From Newsmax

Sears Holdings Corp. reported a smaller decline in quarterly same-store sales, but warned again that there is doubt about the company’s continued operation as it awaits approval to sell some of its businesses to its chief executive’s hedge fund.

“It is imperative that the Company reduce debt, adjust its debt maturity profile and eliminate the associated cash interest obligations,” Chief Executive Edward Lampert said in a blog post on the company’s website.

A Home Business Can Be Rewarding

By Alexia Wolker

Running a home business can be a great way to balance your work and home life. Working from home gives you the flexibility of not having to commute to and from work, which maximizes the time you can spend with your family. There are many different business`s you can run from home, this article should give you some ideas for home-based businesses that may work for you.

It`s already tough enough to get people to trust a home business, so don`t let your website sabotage the trust you have built. Be honest, forthright, and open in everything you post. Don`t hide anything or be sneaky, like throwing keywords throughout the page that look out of place. If you get 10 people to your site who trust you and buy, it`s better than doing anything it takes to get 10 times as many who see through your techniques and leave.

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Gold Miners’ Q4’17 Fundamentals

By Adam Hamilton – Re-Blogged From http://www.Gold-Eagle.com

The gold miners’ stocks remain deeply out of favor, trading at prices seen when gold was half or even a quarter of current levels. So many traders assume this small contrarian sector must be really struggling fundamentally. But nothing could be farther from the truth! The major gold miners’ recently-released Q4’17 results prove they are thriving. Their languishing stock prices are the result of irrational herd sentiment.

Four times a year publicly-traded companies release treasure troves of valuable information in the form of quarterly reports. Required by securities regulators, these quarterly results are exceedingly important for investors and speculators. They dispel all the sentimental distortions surrounding prevailing stock-price levels, revealing the underlying hard fundamental realities. They serve to re-anchor perceptions.

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Companies On Track For $800 Billion Share Buyback Record In 2018

By Rick Mills – Re-Blogged From http://www.Silver-Phoenix500.com

Donald Trump’s tax cuts are already paying dividends… well, actually the companies that are benefiting from the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act passed by the Trump Administration in December are not only returning cash to shareholders in the form of dividends, but are presiding over what could be the largest share buyback program in history.

The legislation slashed the corporate tax rate from 35% to 21% and the top individual tax rate shrunk to 37%. It also cut income tax rates, doubled the standard deduction and eliminated personal exemptions. All told, the Trump tax cuts are the eighth largest since 1918, and represent just over 1% of GDP – in other words, how much federal revenue the government will forego as a percentage of the economy.

Yardeni.com

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