A Can Too Big For The Fed And ECB

There are lies, damned lies, and economists. Whether these economists work for the government or a bank, they spend all their time on the computer extrapolating current trends with minor adjustments.

If you want to understand the future, don’t spend your life preparing and constantly revising an Excel sheet with masses of economic data. Collective human behaviour is extremely predictable. But not by spreadsheet analysis but by studying history.

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Do Jobless Claims Point To Sluggish Recovery

By Arkadiusz Sieroń – Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle

Jobless claims paint a much grimmer picture than other pieces of economic data. So, the Fed (and other central banks) will remain dovish for years, which should support gold prices.

More and more economic reports show the beginning of the economic recovery in the U.S. Following the retail sales earlier last week, the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index turned from negative 43.1 in May to positive 27.5 in June, the first positive reading since February. And the Leading Economic Index rose 2.8 percent in May, after a record plunge in the two prior months.

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Silver Is Going To Have A Sudden, Massive Move To $50 That Everyone Will Be Surprised Over

By Mike Gleason – Re-Blogged From Silver Phoenix

Mike Gleason: It is my privilege now to welcome back Michael Pento president and founder of Pento Portfolio Services. Michael is a well-known money manager, market commentator, and author of the book, The Coming Bond Market Collapse: How to Survive the Demise of the U.S. Debt Market. He’s been a regular guest with us over the years, and it’s always a pleasure to have him on with us.

Well, Michael, it’s been a few months since we’ve had you on last and just a little bit has been going on in the world. COVID-19 has hit the states to say the least and caused major disruptions in the economy. Governors have instituted stay-home orders. Tens of millions of people have filed for unemployment. Now we’re seeing major rioting and social unrest in many cities throughout the country over the police killing of a black man in Minnesota last week.

And in the face of all that, the markets are seemingly doing just fine. Stocks are still rallying and it doesn’t seem like Wall Street is all that concerned about any of this. So, let’s get your take on what’s going on there, Michael, because it’s pretty hard to connect the dots between Wall Street and Main Street these days. Help us out there.

Michael Pento: Yeah. So nothing is going on that much this year at all, right? It’s been pretty boring. </sarc>  The divide between the rich and the poor, which was already humongous coming into this year has grown exponentially. And you have to ask yourself the question, gee, if GDP, according to the Atlanta Fed is going to drop in the second quarter by over 52%, that is a seasonally adjusted annual rate, Mike. GDP is going to be cut in more than half during the second quarter of 2020, how in God’s name could it be possible that stocks are close to all-time record highs? And by evaluation metric at all-time record highs. There are about over 150% of GDP.

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Will Brexit And Coronavirus End The EU?

By Alasdair Macleod – Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle

The EU and euro face a sudden deterioration in economic conditions due to the coronavirus, which seems certain to widen the differences between Germany and the spendthrift Mediterranean members. But a more immediate problem is the increasing likelihood that the ECB will lose control over financial asset prices, particularly those of government bonds.

In the short-term, it seems likely the euro will rise against the dollar as currency and financial distortions, principally in the fx swap market, are unwound. However, the eurozone faces a developing financial crisis comprised of the following elements: a collapse in economic activity, escalating payment failures, a drastic contraction of bank credit and a collapse in bond prices, as well as the medium used to buy them (the euro).

Eventually, Germany is could go it alone by introducing a gold-backed mark, which will only happen after the European Project is finally abandoned.

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Fed Can’t See The Bubbles Through The Lather

Recently, there has been a parade of central bankers along with their lackeys on Wall Street coming on the financial news networks and desperately trying to convince investors that there are no bubbles extant in the world today. Indeed, the Fed sees no economic or market imbalances anywhere that should give perma-bulls cause for concern. You can listen to Jerome Powell’s upbeat assessment of the situation in his own words during the latest FOMC press conference here. The Fed Chair did, however, manage to acknowledge that corporate debt levels are in fact a bit on the high side. But he added that “we have been monitoring it carefully and taken appropriate steps.” By taking appropriate steps to reduce debt levels Powell must mean slashing interest rates and going back into QE. The problem with that strategy being that is exactly what caused the debt binge and overleveraged condition of corporations in the first place.

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Financial System Is Rotten

By Egon von Greyerz – Re-Blogged From Silver Phoenix 

Something is rotten in the state of Denmark the world (from Shakespeare’s Hamlet).

In a world that cannot survive without incessant deficit spending, money printing and negative interest rates, there is clearly something very rotten. It is not only rotten but it stinks! Yes it stinks of lies, deceit and moral decadence.

So why doesn’t anyone stand up to tell the world where we are heading. Well, for the simple reason that no politician can tell the truth. Because if they did, they wouldn’t be elected. The principal purpose of any politician is to buy votes and to get votes you can never speak the truth.

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The Ghost of Failed Banks Returns

By Alasdair Macleod – Re-Blogged From Gold Money

Last week’s failure in the US repo market might have had something to do with Deutsche Bank’s disposal of its prime brokerage to BNP, bringing an unwelcome spotlight to the troubled bank and other foreign banks with prime brokerages in America. There are also worrying similarities between Germany’s Deutsche Bank today and Austria’s Credit-Anstalt in 1931, only the scale is far larger and additionally includes derivatives with a gross value of $50 trillion.

If the repo problem spreads, it could also raise questions over the synthetic ETF industry, whose cash and deposits may face escalating counterparty risks in some of the large banks and their prime brokerages. Managers of synthetic ETFs should be urgently re-evaluating their contractual relationships.

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The Race To Depreciate Fiat Currencies Is Accelerating

By Mike Gleason – Re-Blogged From Silver Phoenix

Metals investors are anxiously awaiting the market’s reaction to next week’s Fed meeting. We may see players in the futures markets move to smash gold and silver prices down to lower support zones in the trading around the Fed’s decision.

But flushing out some more speculative longs and late comers with weak hands would be a healthy development in setting up the next rally.

Those who got left behind in this summer’s big moves in metals markets should certainly consider taking advantage of favorable buying opportunities as they present themselves ahead of a possible seasonal push higher in the sector this fall.

Conventional financial markets could become volatile as uncertainties surrounding America’s economy and political future weigh on investors. We are potentially only one election away from falling into socialism and one quarter’s GDP report away from falling into recession.

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Central Banks In Panic Mode

By Egon von Greyerz – Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle

In this interview Max Keiser and Egon von Greyerz discuss the enormous pressures in the financial system and the coming stampede into gold. Also:

  • The final phase of the currency race to zero has just started
  • Massive energy in gold, built up over the last 6 years
  • Gold will break its all-time high of $1920, without effort
  • Gold hit new all-time highs in many currencies. Now on its way to at least $10,000 or even $50,000
  • Central banks panicking over global banking system
  • Negative rates – Government bonds, world’s most risky investment
  • At some point, investors will dump overvalued bonds, resulting in hyperinflation and implosion of bond market
  • Dow Jones stock index, will face a vicious fall very soon and in years to come

HERE IS THE INTERVIEW:

The Yield “Curve” Knows

By Craig Hemke – Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle

As global interest plummets to historically negative levels—and as the U.S. bond market reveals a deeply inverted yield curve—it’s time again to assess what all of this means for the precious metals investor.

Just yesterday, a fellow on CNBC remarked that “no one had seen this coming”. By “this”, he meant a sharp rally in both gold and bonds. Oh really? We write these articles for Sprott Money each and every week.

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Deeply Negative Nominal Rates Are On Their Way

Growing evidence of a severe global recession is sure to provoke more aggressive monetary policies from central banks. They had hoped to have the leeway to cut interest rates significantly after normalising them. That hasn’t happened. Consequently, as the recession intensifies central banks will see no alternative to deeper negative nominal rates to keep their governments and banks afloat through a combination of eliminating borrowing costs and inflating bond prices. It will be the last throw of the fiat-money dice and, if pursued, will ultimately end in the death of them. Gold and bitcoin prices are now beginning to detect deeper negative rates and the adverse consequences for fiat currencies.

The problem

Central banks face a dilemma: how can they cut interest rates enough to stop an economy sliding into recession. A central banker addressing it will note that the average cut required to put an economy back on its feet is of the order of 5%, judging by the experience of 2001/02 and 2008/09 and what their economic models tell them. Yet, in Euroland the starting point is minus 0.4% and in Japan minus 0.1%. In the US it was 2.5% before the recent reduction and in the UK 0.75%. The solution they will almost certainly favour is deeper negative nominal interest rates.

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Negative Interest Rates And Cash

By Bart Klein Ikink – Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle

Is it possible to have cash with negative rates?

War on cash?

There is talk about a war on cash to pave the way for negative interest rates. Negative interest rates and cash go not well together, at least so it seems. People may opt for cash when interest rates on bank accounts and government bonds are negative. In Europe many interest rates are already in negative territory but the central bank still promotes the use of cash. So is there a war on cash? At least not at the European Central Bank (ECB) it seems. Some ECB policy makers can even get a bit emotional about cash being the only real link between the central bank the people.1

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Europe’s Hail Mary Pass

By Rick Ackerman – Re-Blogged From Silver Phoenix

Europe took competition to a new level last week in the global currency-devaluation olympiad. Nominating the politically-minded IMF chief Christine Lagarde rather than a blue-blooded financier to run the ECB is akin to making Trump chairman of the Federal Reserve. No longer can we pretend that the staid protocols of old-school banking still obtain in the financial realm. Instead, there is a strong whiff of desperation as Europe readies a last-ditch attempt to stimulate itself out of a liquidity trap with the ECB’s deposit rate already at minus 0.4%.

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Gold Sees Safe-Haven Gains As Stocks Fall Sharply And Deutsche Bank Plummets

By Mark O’Byrne – Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle

Gold rose to a two week high and was higher in most currencies today after Washington’s threat of tariffs on Mexico exacerbated fears of a global trade war and recession, which saw a ‘flight to quality’ and gains for safe haven gold.

Spot gold jumped 0.9% to $1,298.80 an ounce this morning, its highest since May 15. Gold bullion has risen over 1.2% this month and appears headed for its first monthly gain in four months. This is important from a technical perspective and the fundamentals of growing risk aversion and robust demand should lead to further gains in June.

European trading has seen a clear flight to quality after President Trump unexpectedly politicised tariffs by slapping 5% on all goods coming from Mexico.

The increasingly hopeless case of a U.S. and China trade deal looked even further away after China drew up an “Unreliable entities” list of foreign parties (presumably mostly U.S.) that harm Chinese firms.

Stocks are red across the board globally with the S&P 500 breaking down sharply below its 200 day moving average (DMA). 2776 is a key level and Wall Street and Wasshington will not want a close below this level. Market intervention is quite possible, if not likely.

A weekly close below the 200 day moving average (DMA) could lead to follow through selling on Monday which could get ugly given the economic backdrop.

Financial stocks are particularly under pressure including UBS and embattled Deutsche Bank with the latter posting new “all time” lows of around €6. A whiff of contagion is in the air.

US and German bond yields hitting recent lows indicate the Fed might be backed into a rate cut sooner than they have been guiding with an inverting yield curve being a good barometer of trouble ahead

The greenback has also benefited somewhat from the risk off trade, in the face of this, silver and particularly gold are holding up well despite the recent sell off.

$1,300/oz and $14.60/oz are the respective hurdles approaching for both. Weekly closes over these levels should see follow though buying and further gains.

How far down we go, nobody knows, but it makes sense to stay cautious and prepared.

Fasten your seat belts it could be a lively Friday afternoon and weekend…

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EU Monetary And Economic Failures

By Alasdair Macleod – Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle

Introduction and summary

The monetary, financial and political weaknesses of the EU are about to be exposed by the forthcoming global credit crisis.

This article assumes the combination of end of credit cycle dynamics and the rise in trade protectionism in 1929 is a valid precedent for gauging the scale of a developing global credit crisis today, as described in my earlier article published here. Then, it was heavier tariffs coinciding with a less destabilising inflation cycle than we face today, a combination that saw stock markets collapse. Today, we have the additional factors of far greater monetary inflation, far higher levels of government debt, low savings coupled with record consumer borrowing, and unbacked fiat currencies likely to lose purchasing power instead of gold-backed currencies which increased their purchasing power.

Declining international trade has already become evident in only a few months, and prescient observers detect early signs of a rapidly developing global recession. In response, the ECB has announced it will target lending to non-financial businesses with its TLTRO-III programme from September onwards.

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The Dollar – King Rat Of Failing Currencies

BY Alasdair Macleod – Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle

The explanation for the sudden halt in global economic growth is found in the coincidence of peak credit combining with trade protectionism. The history of economic downturns points to a rerun of the 1929-32 period, but with fiat currencies substituted for a gold standard. Government finances are in far worse shape today, and markets have yet to appreciate the consequences of just a moderate contraction in global trade. Between new issues and liquidation by foreigners, domestic buyers will need to absorb $2 trillion of US Treasuries in the coming year, so QE is bound to return with a vengeance, the last hurrah for fiat currencies. However, China and Russia have the means to escape this fate, assuming they have the gumption to do so.

Introduction

It may be too early to say the world is entering a significant economic downturn, but even ardent bulls must admit to it as an increasing possibility. Financial analysts, both bovine and ursine, face a complex matrix of factors when judging the future effect of any downturn on currencies, and of the prospects for the dollar in particular.

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Powell’s Testimony & The ECB Meeting?

By Arkadiusz Sieroń – Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle

Powell’s testimony before the Congress is behind us. The ECB meeting is ahead of us. Will Draghi support the gold prices after recent declines?

Gold Falls Below $1,300

Gold bulls might be disappointed. The upward trend apparently ended. As one can see in the chart below, gold fell below $1,300 on Friday.

Chart 1: Gold prices from March 1 to March 4, 2019

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If You Could Design A Perfect World For Gold…

By John Rubino – Re-Blogged From Dollar Collapse

Are you sick of your gold just sitting there when it was supposed to have long since made you rich? Have you been fantasizing about a world in which your gold really does make you rich?

If so you’re in good – or at least numerous – company.

So let’s sketch out such a world.

Start by envisioning an America in which a handful of oligopolies have captured banking, media, healthcare and several other important industries, while a tiny group of super-rich neo-aristocrats control as much wealth as the 200 million least-rich citizens.

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EU Recession Imminent – Euro Disunion As Brexit, Italy And End Of QE Loom

By John Mauldin – Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle

Someone asked recently how many times I had “crossed the pond” to Europe. I really don’t know. Certainly dozens of times. It’s been several times a year for as long as I remember.

That makes me an extremely unusual American. Most of us never visit Europe, except maybe for a rare dream vacation. And that’s okay because our own country is wonderful and has a lifetime of sights to see. But it does affect our perspective on the world.


Graphic: European Central Bank

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Rome vs Brussels

By Arkadiusz Sieron – Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle

Only one digit has changed. But it may have profound consequences, sending the country closer to junk status. Meanwhile, Rome and Brussels clash over budget plan. Will that duel benefit or harm the yellow metal?

Only One Notch Above Being Junk

Italian drama continues. On Friday, Moody’s, one of the most significant rating agencies in the world, downgraded the Italian credit rating from Baa2 to Baa3. It means that Italy’s local and foreign-currency bonds are now only one notch above junk territory. The move was not surprising, as well as the reasons behind this decision:

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Bond Bubble Conundrum

By Michael Pento – Re-Blogged From Silver Phoenix

Wall Street shills are in near perfect agreement that the bond market is not in a bubble. And, even if there are a few on the fringes who will admit that one does exist, they claim it will burst harmlessly because the Fed is merely gradually letting the air out from inside. However, the fact that we are in a bond bubble is beyond a doubt—and given the magnitude of the yield distortions that exist today, the effects of its unwinding will be epoch.

Due to the risks associated with inflation and solvency concerns, it should be a prima facie case that sovereign bond yields should never venture anywhere near zero percent—and in some cases, shockingly, below zero percent. Even if a nation were to have an annual budget surplus with no inflation, it should still provide investors with a real, after-tax return on government debt. But in the context of today’s inflation-seeking and debt-disabled governments, negative nominal interest rates are equivalent to investment heresy.

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Inflation Target Regrets

By Michael Pento – Re-Blogged From Silver Phoenix

Beginning this fall, and continuing throughout 2019, the stock market’s performance should be vastly different from what has occurred during the prior few years. Indeed, the huge reconciliation of stock prices is arriving now.

The primary reason behind this is the watershed change in global central banks’ monetary policies. For years central banks had been keeping rates near 0%, or below, and at the same time printing over a hundred billion dollars’ worth of fiat currencies each and every month to purchase bonds and stocks. That is all changing now. According to Capital Economics, fourteen major global central banks are either in the process right now, or have indicated that they be will next year, in the process of raising interest rates. At the same time, QE on a global net basis will plunge from $180 billion per month at its peak during 2017, to $0 by December…and will then go negative in 2019.

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Does Gold Speak Italian?

By Arkadiusz Sieron – Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle

Is Italy the new Greece? Read today’s article and find out what does the newest Italian turmoil imply for the gold market.

The recent days have been quite tumultuous in Italy. The turmoil started last week when the new government submitted its spending plans to the EU. The ruling coalition set Italy’s budget deficit at 2.4 percent of its GDP. The number is much higher than the current deficit which is set to be 1.5 percent of the GDP. The proposed difference between spending and revenue is also higher than 1.6 percent proposed by the country’s finance minister Giovanni Tria. So the number was above the expectations. Actually, it came as a shock, especially that the International Monetary Fund has projected it to fall to 0.9 per cent in 2019. Well, nobody expected the Italian inquisition.

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Global Central Banks Enter the Danger Zone

By Michael Pento – Re-Blogged From Pento Portfolios

Investors are experiencing huge moves in commodities, currencies, equities and in sovereign debt across the globe. And now the fall has arrived. Expect the volatility currently witnessed in markets to only surge.

This is because global central banks have overwhelmingly turned hawkish in a vain attempt to gradually let the air out of the massive bubbles they have spent the last decade recreating. Unfortunately, that is not the nature of asset bubbles—they don’t end with a whimper–and they are about to burst in violent fashion.

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Italy Calls Europe’s Bluff, And The Euro Loses Either Way

By John Rubino – Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle

When Italy elected a bunch of rowdy populists back in March, the rest of the eurozone assumed (or at least hoped) that the weight of responsibility would bring Rome back into line. But so far the Italians appear to be serious about ending austerity and forcing the ECB to finance their spending ambitions. The just-passed Italian budget calls for a rising deficit, in direct disobedience of Continental (read German) authorities.

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The Dollar is Central to the Next Crisis

By Alasdair Macleod – Re-Blogged From GoldMoney

Introduction And Summary

It is now possible to pencil in how the next credit crisis is likely to develop. At its centre is an overvalued dollar over-owned by foreigners, puffed up on speculative flows driven by interest rate differentials.  These must be urgently corrected by the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan if the distortion is to be prevented from becoming much worse.

The problem is compounded because the next crisis is likely to be triggered by this normalisation. It can be expected to commence in the coming months, even by the year-end. When flows into the dollar subside and reverse, bond yields can be expected to rise sharply in all the major currencies. There will also be a number of other unhelpful factors, particularly rising commodity prices, the timing of the Trump stimulus and trade tariffs pushing up price inflation. Coupled with a declining dollar, price inflation and therefore interest rates are bound to rise significantly.

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Italian Debt – A Financial Disaster Waiting To Happen

By Mark O’Byrne – Re-Blogged From http://www.Silver-Phoenix500.com

The new Italian government will increase public spending and public debt.

It promised to reduce taxes, introduce basic security and reform pensions. Italy’s Northern League’s leader Mateo Salvini surged in the polls and the party is now the strongest in Italy.

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Why The Global Collapse Will Be Devastating

By Egon von Greyerz – Re-Blogged From King World News

As the world edges closer to the next crisis, today the man who has become legendary for his predictions on QE and historic moves in currencies, told King World News there is no way out and this is why the global collapse will be devastating.

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Stock Markets Hyper-Risky 3

By Adam Hamilton – Re-Blogged From http://www.Silver-Phoenix500.com

The lofty US stock markets remain riddled with euphoria and complacency, fueled by an exceptional bull. Investors believe downside risks are trivial, despite long years of epic central-bank easing catapulting valuations to dangerous bull-slaying extremes. This has left today’s markets hyper-risky, with a massive bear looming as the Fed and ECB increasingly slow and reverse their easy-money policies. Caveat emptor!

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Chairman for People and Arrogant Eurocrat

arkadiusz-sieron   By Arkadiusz Sieron – Re-Blogged From Sunshine Profits 

Two of the most powerful men in the world. Trump? Putin? Xi? Nah. Chairman Jerome Powell and President Mario Draghi. Let’s analyze their recent press conferences!

Powell – Chairman for People

In the last edition of the Gold New Monitor, we promised that we will elaborate on the Powell’s and Draghi’s press conferences. It’s high time we fulfilled the promise.

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Return of the Euro Crisis: Italy Quakes, Rest of the World Shakes and Merkel’s Empire Breaks

By David Haggith – Re-Blogged From Great Recession Blog

Europe’s many fault lines are spreading once again, bringing the endless euro crisis saga back in 3-D realism. Italy gained a new anti-establishment government last week, even as Spain elected a new Socialista government that could crack Catalonia off from the rest of Spain. All of Europe fell under Trumpian trade-war sanctions and threatened their own retaliation. And Germany’s most titanic bank got downgraded to the bottom of the junk-bond B-bin.

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The Gently Rotting Debt-Ridden EU

By Alasdair Macleod – Re-Blogged From http://www.Gold-Eagle.com

The EU (Euro Union) as a political construction is in a state of terminal decay. We know this for one reason and one reason alone: its core principal is the state is superior to its people. A system of government can only work over the longer term if it recognises that it is the servant of the people, not its master. It matters not what electoral system is in place, so long as this principal is adhered to.

The EU executive in Brussels does not accept electoral primacy. It shares with Marxist communism a belief in statist primacy instead. The only difference between the two creeds is Marx planned to rule the world, while Brussels is on the way to ruling Europe.

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Making Italy Great Again

By Peter Schiff – Re-Blogged From Euro Pacific Capital

This week, market watchers around the world are justifiably fixated with the high-stakes, high-drama political developments unfolding in Italy. While a political crisis in the world’s 9th largest economy (International Monetary Fund figures, 4/17/18) would normally not be enough to cause an international meltdown, given how thin the global economic ice has become as a result of ever-increasing debt loads, even small disruptions can create systemic problems. But from my perspective, what makes the Italian drama so interesting is that it parallels so precisely developments in the United States. It’s amazing that more Americans do not realize, that when looking at Italy, they are looking at a fun house mirror reflection of the United States.

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Currencies Will Be ‘Flushed Down The Toilet’

By Mike Gleason – Re-Blogged From http://www.Gold-Eagle.com

Mike Gleason: It is my privilege now to welcome back Michael Pento, president and founder of Pento Portfolio Strategies, and author of the book The Coming Bond Market Collapse: How to Survive the Demise of the U.S. Debt Market.

Michael is a well-known money manager and a fantastic market commentator, and over the past few years has been a wonderful guest and one of our favorite interviews here on the Money Metals Podcast and we always enjoy getting his Austrian economist viewpoint.

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When Will The Next Credit Crisis Occur?

By Alasdair Macleod – Re-Blogged From http://www.Silver-Phoenix500.com

The timing of any credit crisis is set by the rate at which the credit cycle progresses. People don’t think in terms of the credit cycle, wrongly believing it is a business cycle. The distinction is important, because a business cycle by its name suggests it emanates from business. In other words, the cycle of growth and recessions is due to instability in the private sector and this is generally believed by state planners and central bankers.

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Stock Selling Unleashed!

By Adam Hamilton – Re-Blogged From http://www.Gold-Eagle.com

The unnaturally-tranquil stock markets suddenly plunged over this past week. Volatility skyrocketed out of the blue and shattered years of artificial calm conjured by extreme central-bank distortions. This was a huge shock to the legions of hyper-complacent traders, who are realizing stocks don’t rally forever. With stock selling unleashed again, herd psychology will start shifting back to bearish which will fuel lots more selling.

As a contrarian student of the markets, I watched stocks’ recent mania-blowoff surge in stunned disbelief. On fundamental, technical, and sentimental fronts, the stock markets were as or more extreme than their last major bull-market toppings in March 2000 and October 2007! I outlined all this in an essay on these hyper-risky stock markets on 2017’s final trading day. The ominous writing was on the wall for all willing to see.

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Brexit Risks Increase

By Mark O’Byrne – Re-Blogged From http://www.Silver-Phoenix500.com

Brexit uncertainty deepens as UK government in disarray

– BOE warns of earlier and larger rate hikes for Brexit-hit UK

– UK property prices fall second month in row, London property under pressure

– No deal Brexit estimated to cost UK £80bn according to government analysis – Transition period causing major uncertainty for UK and pound – Pound expected to fall as Brexit fears remain into 2018

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Don’t Fight the Fed! Or the Rest of the World’s Central Banks

By Michael Pento – Re-Blogged From PentoPort

On March 9, 2009, The Wall Street Journal’s Money and Investing section posed this ominous question: “How low can stocks go?” The stench of economic malaise was suffocating as the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) rounded off its fourth straight week of losses, and the S&P 500 touched below 700 for the first time in 13 years. Goldman Sachs cautioned the S&P could fall to 400, while CNBC’s Jim Cramer was busily calculating the stock valuations of the DJIA components based on balance sheet cash levels.

Yet miraculously, as the market pundits stood despondently believing there was nothing positive on the economic horizon and that no stock was worth buying at any price, investors stared into the abyss and took a leap of faith. And just like that, the market had bottomed. Dow 6,440.08 was a buying opportunity, and with the Fed’s QE spigot operating on full throttle, the Dow was poised for a historic take-off.

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98,750,067,000,000 Reasons To Buy Gold In 2018

By Mark O’Byrne – Re-Blogged From http://www.Gold-Eagle.com

World equity index market capitalization touching distance of $100 trillion dollars at beginning of December
– Key indicators across global financial markets are looking decidedly bubble-like
– Little indication that we are through the worst of the financial crisis that started in 2007

– Apparent lack of concern regarding the over-heated and overpriced markets
– Since financial crisis gold has climbed nearly 124% in EUR, 190% in GBP and 98% in USD
– Goldcore’s latest podcast covers gold’s role in 2018 in the land of bubbles

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Investment Prospects For 2018

By Alasdair Macleod – Re-Blogged From http://www.Gold-Eagle.com

Predicting the future is a mug’s game, and in financial markets we simply cannot know tomorrow’s prices. All we can do is make assessments of the factors that can be expected to influence them.

Economists’ forecasts today, with very few exceptions, are a waste of time and downright misleading. In 2016, we saw this spectacularly illustrated with Brexit, when the IMF, OECD, the Bank of England and the UK Treasury all forecast a slump in the British economy in the event the referendum voted to leave the EU. While there are reasonable suspicions there was an element of disinformation in the forecasts, the fact they were so wrong is the important point. Yet, we still persist in paying economists to fail us.

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Choose…Blow Up Stocks 0r Bonds

By Graham Summers – Re-Blogged From http://www.Gold-Eagle.com

And they’re going to choose to let stocks go.

The #1 driver of the stock market is Central Bank money printing. In 2017 alone, the BoJ and the European Central Bank (ECB) have printed over $1.5 TRILLION and funneled it into the financial system.

The primary goal of this is to ramp stocks higher. But the consequence is that inflation has been unleashed.

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Rising Rates And The Coming Systemic Reset

By Graham Summers – Re-Blogged From http://www.Gold-Eagle.com

Remember how the Fed, ECB and others all claimed ZIRP and QE were about generating economic growth, making mortgages more affordable, and helping consumers?

Well, that was a gigantic lie. The truth is that every major policy employed by Central Banks since 2008 have been about one thing…

Maintaining the bond bubble.

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Lemmings in Full Gallup Towards Cliff

By Michael Pento – Re-Blogged From http://www.pentoport.com

Its official…the stock market has broken above 23,000, and its valuations should now scare even the most mind-numbed carnival barker on Wall Street. The forward 12-month PE ratio is 18, compared to the 10-year average of just 14. The 12-month trailing PE for Pro-forma earnings, which takes into account non-recurring items that seem to recur ever quarter, is trading at 20 times earnings. But on a reported earnings basis—the number you report to the SEC under penalty of the law and according to GAAP standards–the 12-month trailing PE is 25.5 times earnings.

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Coming Central Bank Failure

By Mike Gleason – Re-Blogged From http://www.Gold-Eagle.com

Listen to the Podcast Audio: Click Here

Mike Gleason (Money Metals Exchange): It is my privilege to welcome in Michael Pento, President and founder of Pento Portfolio Strategies, and author of the book, The Coming Bond Market Collapse: How to Survive the Demise of the U.S. Debt Market. Michael is a well-known and successful money manager, and has been a regular guest on CNBC, Bloomberg, Fox Business News, and also the Money Medals Podcast, and shares his astute insights on markets and geopolitics from the perspective of an Austrian school economist viewpoint.

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D.C. Dysfunction and Central Bank Chaos

By Michael Pento – Re-Blogged From Pento Portfolio Strategies

On September 5th, the members of both houses of Congress of the United States cleaned the beach sand from between their toes and returned to work. Our public servants who occupy The House of Representatives have been working on their respective tans since July 29th. The Senate has had a little less time in the sun; they held their final vote on August 3rd despite their pledge to stay until August 11th.

Hopefully, they got a lot of rest, because they have a lot to do upon their return. By the end of September Congress will need to pass a budget bill to avoid a government shutdown. Expect Tea Party Republicans to hold their ground on spending cuts while Trump petitions for his wall. According to recent tweets, Trump is pushing for this fight and welcomes a government shutdown. Get out the popcorn this could get interesting.

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See No Evil…Speak No Evil

By Alasdair Macleod – Re-Blogged From http://www.Silver-Phoenix500.com

The Jackson Hole speeches of Janet Yellen and Mario Draghi last week were notable for the omission of any comment about the burning issues of the day: where do the Fed and the ECB respectively think America and the Eurozone are in the central bank induced credit cycle, and therefore, what are the Fed and the ECB going to do with interest rates? And why is it still appropriate for the ECB to be injecting raw money into the Eurozone banks to the tune of $60bn per month, if the great financial crisis is over?

Instead, they stuck firmly to their topics, the Jackson Hole theme for 2017 being Fostering a dynamic global economy. Both central bankers told us how good they have been at controlling events since the last financial crisis. Ms Yellen majored on regulation, bolstering her earlier-expressed belief that financial crises are now unlikely to happen again, because American banks are properly regulated and capitalised.

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Most Useful Leading Indicator

By Steve Saville – Re-Blogged From http://www.Gold-Eagle.com

The long-term economic oscillations between boom and bust are caused by changes in the money-supply growth rate. It can therefore make sense to monitor such changes, but doing so requires knowing how to calculate the money supply. Unfortunately, most of the popular monetary aggregates are not useful in this regard because they either include quantities that aren’t money or omit quantities that are money.

What “Austrian” economists refer to as TMS (True Money Supply) is the most accurate monetary aggregate. Whereas popular measures such as M2, M3 and MZM contain credit instruments, TMS only contains money. Specifically, TMS comprises currency (notes and coins), checkable deposits and savings deposits.

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Follow The Money

By Alasdair Macleod – Re-Blogged From http://www.Silver-Phoenix500.com

Since 2009, equities and other financial assets have climbed a wall of worry. Initially, it was recovery from the threat of a complete financial collapse, before the Fed saved the system once again. Systemic collapse continued to be on the cards, with European banks at risk of bankruptcy. We still talk about this today. More walls of worry to climb.

The global economy has not imploded, as the bears have consistently warned. Systemic and other dangers still exist. The bears now point to excessive valuations as the reason for staying out of the market. But this misses the point: the general level of asset valuations depends not on fundamentals, but on credit flows. It matters not whether there is cash sitting on the side-lines, or whether speculators borrow to invest, so long as the credit keeps flowing into financial assets. Just follow the money.

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5 Reasons to Fear the Fall

By Michael Pento – Re-Blogged From http://www.PentoPort.com

This powerful and protracted bull market has made Cassandras look foolish for a long time. Those who went on record predicting that massive central bank manipulation of markets would not engender viable economic growth have been proven correct. However, these same individuals failed to fully anticipate the willingness of momentum-trading algorithms to take asset prices very far above the underlying level of economic growth.

Nevertheless, there are five reasons to believe that this fall will finally bring stock market valuations down to earth, and vindicate those who have displayed caution amidst all the frenzy.

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The Elephant In The Room: Debt

By David Chapman – Re-Blogged From http://www.Gold-Eagle.com

It’s the elephant in the room; the guest no one wants to talk to—debt! Total global debt is estimated to be about $217 trillion and some believe it could be as high as $230 trillion. In 2008, when the global financial system almost collapsed global debt stood at roughly $142 trillion. The growth since then has been astounding. Instead of the world de-leveraging, the world has instead leveraged up. While global debt has been growing at about 5% annually, global nominal GDP has been averaging only about 3% annually (all measured in US$). World debt to GDP is estimated at about 325% (that is all debt—governments, corporations, individuals). In some countries such as the United Kingdom, it exceeds 600%. It has taken upwards of $4 in new debt to purchase $1 of GDP since the 2008 financial crisis. Many have studied and reported on the massive growth of debt including McKinsey & Company www.mickinsey.com, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) www.imf.org, and the World Bank www.worldbank.org.

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