Upcoming La Nina Winter: Cooler and Wetter than Normal

By Cliff Mass Weather Blog – Re-Blogged From WUWT

There comes a point during mid-summer when the veil of uncertainty lifts regarding the nature of the upcoming winter season and we are at that point now.

The key tool for seasonal forecasting in our region is the correlation between El Nino (warmer than normal water in the tropical Pacific) and La Nina (the opposite) and the large-scale weather circulation over our region.    El Nino years tend to bring our region warm/drier conditions with a lower than normal snowpack. La Nina years tend to be cooler/wetter and are the periods skiers dream of.

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Half of 21st Century Warming Due to El Nino

By Roy W. Spencer – Re-Blogged From http://www.drroyspencer.com

A major uncertainty in figuring out how much of recent warming has been human-caused is knowing how much nature has caused. The IPCC is quite sure that nature is responsible for less than half of the warming since the mid-1900s, but politicians, activists, and various green energy pundits go even further, behaving as if warming is 100% human-caused.

The fact is we really don’t understand the causes of natural climate change on the time scale of an individual lifetime, although theories abound. For example, there is plenty of evidence that the Little Ice Age was real, and so some of the warming over the last 150 years (especially prior to 1940) was natural — but how much?

The answer makes as huge difference to energy policy. If global warming is only 50% as large as is predicted by the IPCC (which would make it only 20% of the problem portrayed by the media and politicians), then the immense cost of renewable energy can be avoided until we have new cost-competitive energy technologies.

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Does The Climate-Science Industry Purposely Ignore A Simple Aspect of Strong El Niño Events That Causes Long-Term Global Warming?

By Bob Tisdale – Re-Blogged From WUWT

It was a little more than 10 years ago that I published my first blog posts on the obvious upward steps in the sea surface temperatures of a large portion of the global oceans…upward steps that are caused by El Niño events…upward steps that lead to sunlight-fueled, naturally occurring global warming.

There is a very simple explanation for those El Niño-caused upward shifts that also make themselves known in the sea surface temperature data for much larger portion of the global oceans than I first presented a decade ago…the upward steps that are blatantly obvious in the satellite-era (starts November 1981) of sea surface temperature data for the South Atlantic, Indian and West Pacific Oceans, as shown in Figure 1, which together cover about 52% of the surfaces of the global oceans.

Figure 1

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Weak Sun and El Nino Events May Create a Colder and Snowier Than Normal Winter Season in Much of the Eastern Half of the USA

By Meteorologist Paul Dorian – Re-Blogged From WUWT

The fast approaching solar minimum and its potential impact on the upcoming winter season

Overview

In the long term, the sun is the main driver of all weather and climate and multi-decadal trends in solar activity can have major impacts on oceanic and atmospheric temperatures. In addition, empirical observations have shown that the sun can have important ramifications on weather and climate on shorter time scales including those associated with the average solar cycle of around 11-years. For example, there is evidence that low solar activity during solar minimum years tend to be well-correlated with more frequent “high-latitude blocking” events compared to normal and this type of atmospheric phenomenon can play an important role in the winter season.

The sun today: a blank, spotless, ball. 58% of the days in 2018 have been without sunspots. Source: NASA SDO

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El Niño Development Looking More Likely Now

By Anthony Watts – Re-Blogged From WUWT

ENSO-neutral conditions still reign as of the beginning of the month, but we’re starting to see some clearer signs of the development of El Niño.

Forecasters estimate that El Niño conditions will develop in the next few months, and there’s a 70-75% chance El Niño will be present through the winter.  Most computer models are currently predicting a weak El Niño event.

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Clouds and El Nino

By Willis Eschenbach – Re-Blogged From http://www.WattsUpWithThat.com

After the turn of the century, I became interested in climate science. But unlike almost everyone else, I wasn’t surprised by how much the global temperature was changing. As someone with experience with heat engines and engine governors, I know how hard it is to keep a heat engine stable under a changing load. As a result, I was surprised at how little the temperature was changing.

Over the 20th Century, for example, the temperature changed by a trivially small ±0.3°C. Since the average temperature of the planet is on the order of 287K, this means that the global temperature varied only about a tenth of one percent in a hundred years … that that is amazingly stable.

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Plateau in Ocean Air Temps

– Re-Blogged From Science Matters

Years ago, Dr. Roger Pielke Sr. explained why sea surface temperatures (SST) were the best indicator of heat content gained or lost from earth’s climate system.  Enthalpy is the thermodynamic term for total heat content in a system, and humidity differences in air parcels affect enthalpy.  Measuring water temperature directly avoids distorted impressions from air measurements.  In addition, ocean covers 71% of the planet surface and thus dominates surface temperature estimates.

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Will There Be A 2018/19 El Niño?

By Bob Tisdale – Re-Blogged From http://www.WattsUpWithThat.com

Looks like one may be forming right now.

Judith Curry published the post ENSO forecast for 2018 yesterday. On the thread (here) I asked and stated:

Judith, the question that needs answering: Are weather conditions right for a series of westerly wind bursts in the western tropical Pacific? Without westerly wind bursts to initiate downwelling Kelvin waves, there will be no El Niño.

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Cause and Timings of El Nino Events, 1850-Present

[See bottom for a description of an El Nino. -Bob]

By Burl C Henry

ABSTRACT:

An hypothesis is presented that the cause of an EL Nino event is the reduction in the amount of dimming Sulfur Dioxide (SO2) aerosol emissions into the troposphere.

For the modern era, 1850 – present, the SO2 removal episodes are coincident with either business recessions, or environmentally-driven reductions in net global SO2 aerosol emissions.

DISCUSSION:

One of the enduring questions regarding Earth’s climate has been what causes the onset of an El Nino event, because of their generally adverse impact upon the Earth’s weather. They are believed to have occurred for thousands of years, but up until now, the reason for their appearance has been the subject of much debate.

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Why Climate Models Run Hot

By Rud Istvan – Re-Blogged From http://www.WattsUpWithThat.com

EPA administrator Pruitt wants to “Red Team” the catastrophic anthropogenic global warming (CAGW) consensus best reflected in the IPCC assessment reports (AR). At its core, CAGW rests on just three propositions:

1. CO2 is a ‘greenhouse’ gas retarding radiative cooling. This should not be in serious dispute since Tyndall experimentally proved it in 1859.

2. The Earth is warming. Although the details are in dispute because of temperature data quality problems and ‘adjustments’, the general fact is not. The Earth has been intermittently warming since the Little Ice Age (LIA) ended. For example, the last Thames Ice Fair was in 1814.

3. CO2 and its knock-on effects caused the recent warming, and climate models (such as the CMIP5 archive for IPCC AR5) predict this will continue to catastrophic levels. This is an extremely dubious proposition.

This guest post addresses proposition 3. It does so in a short sound bite ‘abstract’ useful for debating warmunists, and then in a typical WUWT full climate science guest post. It is a modest Red Team contribution.

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NOAA: Above-Normal Atlantic Hurricane Season is Most Likely This Year

‘Weak or non-existent’ El Nino is a factor

Forecasters at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center say the Atlantic could see another above-normal hurricane season this year.

For the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 through November 30, forecasters predict a 45 percent chance of an above-normal season, a 35 percent chance of a near-normal season, and only a 20 percent chance of a below-normal season.

“As a Florida resident, I am particularly proud of the important work NOAA does in weather forecasting and hurricane prediction,” said U.S. Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross. “These forecasts are important for both public safety and business planning, and are a crucial function of the federal government.”

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Where Did the 2016 El Niño’s Heat Come From?

By Mike Jonas – Re-Blogged From http://www.WattsUpWithThat.com

1. The basic physics

2016 was claimed as the “hottest year ever”. Well, the hottest for a few centuries, anyway, if the global temperature measures are to be believed. Let’s suppose that they are. It is known that 2016 was an El Niño year, and that the “hottest year ever” was caused by a burst of warm water from the ocean (and we know that CO2 doesn’t act that fast). So – where did the El Niño’s heat come from? Let’s look at some basic physics:

Greenhouse gases (GHGs) warm the atmosphere. From there, the downward Infra-Red (IR) radiation reaches the ocean surface.

IR cannot penetrate more than a fraction of a millimetre into the ocean, so it warms just the surface skin. From there most of its energy goes back into the atmosphere or space, but some of it can convect or conduct into the ocean.

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Despite Denial, Data Shows Global Temperatures Are Dropping Fast

By Dr David Whitehouse, The GWPF Science Editor – Re-Blogged From http://www.WattsUpWithThat.com

All global temperature data sets confirm that global temperature has fallen rapidly in recent months as the recent El Nino ended.

Over the last couple of years there have been many articles about how they have been record-breakers in global temperature. It’s often sold as a simple ‘the planet is getting warmer only because of us’ story. As I have discussed before the concurrent El Nino was dismissed by some climate scientists as having an insignificant contribution to that record. However, there is a great deal of confusion and diversity in the assessment of its contribution. Some scientists maintain that it was the recent very strong El Nino that elevated the temperature to record levels.

Nevertheless some maintain that warm records would have been broken without the El Nino (although the significant contribution made by the highly unusual warm “Pacific Blob” is usually ignored).

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Weekly Climate and Energy News Roundup #240

The Week That Was: September 10, 2016 – Brought to You by www.SEPP.org

By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project

Treaty or No Treaty? According to reports, on September 3, U.S. President Obama and Chinese President Xi Jinping signed the Paris Climate Agreement (Treaty) prior to the G-20 economic meeting in Hangzhou, China. It is becoming clear that Mr. Obama has no intention of submitting the agreement for approval by two-thirds of the US Senate to become a Treaty, as required by the US Constitution — Article II, Section 2, Clause 2. As such, the agreement is not a treaty having the force of law in the United States, nor is it even a Congressional-Executive Agreement requiring a simple majority in both the Senate and the House of Representatives. The enforcement of the agreement under international law is a subject for legal scholars and; possibly extensive litigation. As the situation exists now, the future President can simply state that the United States changed its mind. Of course, the avid green groups would be outraged.

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Britain Heading for Mini ICE AGE Next Year

By Joshua Nevett – Re-Blogged From Daily Star

A “TRIPLE whammy” of freak climate events causing temperatures to plummet will hit the country in 2017, it has been sensationally claimed.

Climate boffins believe the UK’s topsy-turvy climate is in for a chilly twist within the next few years as three major forms of climate change trigger “substantial cooling”.

lan-nina-forecast

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El Niño Effect in 2015 Was 20 Times as Large as the Global Warming Signal

El Nino 2015 versus Global Warming 2015. Which caused the bigger temperature increase?

By Sheldon Walker – Re-Blogged From http://www.WattsUpWithThat.com

The aim of this article is to split the temperature increase that occurred between the end of 2014, and the end of 2015, into 2 components. An El Nino component, and a Global Warming component. This will allow the size of the 2 components to be compared.

In order to do this we need to choose a temperature series. HADCRUT4 monthly temperature data will be used for the initial analysis, but the results for GISTEMP, NOAA, and Berkeley will be included for comparison with the HADCRUT4 results.

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Godzilla El Nino to Lower Your Heating Bill

By Matt Egan – Re-Blogged From http://money.cnn.com

Apparently, a godzilla is destroying the natural gas market.

Don’t worry, there isn’t a giant sea monster preparing an attack. Rather, predictions of an extremely warm winter — driven by what meteorologists have dubbed a “Godzilla” El Nino — have caused natural gas prices to plummet dramatically.

Natural gas prices tumbled 9% on Monday to three-and-a-half year lows. They’re already down 18% in October and nearly one-third so far this year.

Meteorologists are predicting the unseasonably warm fall temperatures to continue into the winter, which would diminish demand for natural gas to heat homes and businesses.

“A warm winter is the last thing this market needs,” Bank of America Merrill Lynch commodity strategist Sabine Schels wrote in a research report.

Schels believes a mild winter is a “big risk” and could cause a “gas glut” in the coming months.

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Open Letter to U.S. Senators Ted Cruz, James Inhofe and Marco Rubio

By Bob Tisdale – Re-Blogged From http://www.WattsUpWithThat.com

To: The Honorable Ted Cruz, James Inhofe and Marco Rubio

Dear Senators Cruz, Inhofe and Rubio:

I am writing you as chairs of the Subcommittee on Space, Science, and Competitiveness, of the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee, and of the Committee on Oceans, Atmosphere, Fisheries, and Coast Guard. I am an independent researcher who studies global warming and climate change, and I am probably best known for my articles at the science weblog WattsUpWithThat, where I would be considered an investigative reporter.

I have a few very basic questions for you about climate model-based science. They are:

  • Why are taxpayers funding climate model-based research when those models are not simulating Earth’s climate?
  • Why are taxpayers funding climate model-based research when each new generation of climate models provides the same basic answers?
  • Redundancy: why are taxpayers funding 4 climate models in the U.S.?
  • Why aren’t climate models providing the answers we need?
    • Example: Why didn’t the consensus of regional climate models predict the timing, extent and duration of the Californian drought?

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ENSO Explains Global Temperature Swings

cropped-bob-shapiro.jpg   By Bob Shapiro

The IPCC has use many models to try to predict future global temperatures. To date, these models have done a lousy job, not even being able to predict the past climate fluctuations. Worst of all, the IPCC and the rest of the CAGW Alarmism industry have ignored the numerous natural variation explanations.

One of these lines of thought is ENSO – the El Nino/Southern Oscillation. Let’s look briefly at each of the parts.

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