Half of 21st Century Warming Due to El Nino

By Roy W. Spencer – Re-Blogged From http://www.drroyspencer.com

A major uncertainty in figuring out how much of recent warming has been human-caused is knowing how much nature has caused. The IPCC is quite sure that nature is responsible for less than half of the warming since the mid-1900s, but politicians, activists, and various green energy pundits go even further, behaving as if warming is 100% human-caused.

The fact is we really don’t understand the causes of natural climate change on the time scale of an individual lifetime, although theories abound. For example, there is plenty of evidence that the Little Ice Age was real, and so some of the warming over the last 150 years (especially prior to 1940) was natural — but how much?

The answer makes as huge difference to energy policy. If global warming is only 50% as large as is predicted by the IPCC (which would make it only 20% of the problem portrayed by the media and politicians), then the immense cost of renewable energy can be avoided until we have new cost-competitive energy technologies.

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Does The Climate-Science Industry Purposely Ignore A Simple Aspect of Strong El Niño Events That Causes Long-Term Global Warming?

By Bob Tisdale – Re-Blogged From WUWT

It was a little more than 10 years ago that I published my first blog posts on the obvious upward steps in the sea surface temperatures of a large portion of the global oceans…upward steps that are caused by El Niño events…upward steps that lead to sunlight-fueled, naturally occurring global warming.

There is a very simple explanation for those El Niño-caused upward shifts that also make themselves known in the sea surface temperature data for much larger portion of the global oceans than I first presented a decade ago…the upward steps that are blatantly obvious in the satellite-era (starts November 1981) of sea surface temperature data for the South Atlantic, Indian and West Pacific Oceans, as shown in Figure 1, which together cover about 52% of the surfaces of the global oceans.

Figure 1

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El Niño Development Looking More Likely Now

By Anthony Watts – Re-Blogged From WUWT

ENSO-neutral conditions still reign as of the beginning of the month, but we’re starting to see some clearer signs of the development of El Niño.

Forecasters estimate that El Niño conditions will develop in the next few months, and there’s a 70-75% chance El Niño will be present through the winter.  Most computer models are currently predicting a weak El Niño event.

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Solar Cycles and the Equatorial Trough

[This lengthy, scholarly paper, though understated in style, may offer a major challenge to ‘consensus’ climate theory. -Bob]

By Michael Wallace, Hydrologist – Re-Blogged From http://www.WattsUpWithThat.com

I have offered to write this guest essay to reflect recent talks I’ve presented to water resource professionals on hydroclimatology and Solar cycles. As an academic and hydrologic forecaster, I have followed an energy centric, reproducible data path to quantify correlations between solar cycles and atmospheric moisture patterns. I have anchored my study areas upon subdivisions of the hydrosphere, including the Equatorial Trough (ET) and its relative, the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). I have exploited the lags to high correlations that I found to produce what appear to be some of the most accurate climate forecasts known.

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Weekly Climate and Energy News Roundup #294

The Week That Was: December 2, 2017 Brought to You by www.SEPP.org

By Ken Haapala, President, The Science and Environmental Policy Project

38.5 Years of Data: Using atmospheric data collected by satellites from January 1979 to June 2017, John Christy and Richard McNider of the Earth System Science Center at the University of Alabama in Huntsville (UAH) estimate the maximum effect increasing carbon dioxide (CO2) may have on atmospheric temperatures – an upper bound of climate sensitivity to increasing CO2. They do this by using widely accepted statistical techniques to eliminate the effects of two well established natural types of occurrences have on atmospheric temperatures – volcanoes and the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO).

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Cause and Timings of El Nino Events, 1850-Present

[See bottom for a description of an El Nino. -Bob]

By Burl C Henry

ABSTRACT:

An hypothesis is presented that the cause of an EL Nino event is the reduction in the amount of dimming Sulfur Dioxide (SO2) aerosol emissions into the troposphere.

For the modern era, 1850 – present, the SO2 removal episodes are coincident with either business recessions, or environmentally-driven reductions in net global SO2 aerosol emissions.

DISCUSSION:

One of the enduring questions regarding Earth’s climate has been what causes the onset of an El Nino event, because of their generally adverse impact upon the Earth’s weather. They are believed to have occurred for thousands of years, but up until now, the reason for their appearance has been the subject of much debate.

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