Forecasts

Polar Bear Survival Contradictions: Sea Ice Decline vs. Documented Harm

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Reposted from Dr. Susan Crockford’s Polar Bear Science

Re-Blogged From WUWT

Here I take a detailed look at sea ice and polar bear population health information available for Western Hudson Bay and the Southern Beaufort compared to the Barents and Chukchi Seas. Data from the first two regions – but especially Western Hudson Bay – are used repeatedly to proclaim that a pronounced decline in summer sea ice since 1979 has caused harm to the health of global polar bear populations even though data from the second two regions strongly contradict such a conclusion, as I’ve pointed out in my fully referenced book, The Polar Bear Catastrophe That Never Happened.

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These contradictions mean that studies from Western Hudson Bay and the Southern Beaufort should not be used to extrapolate to the rest of the Arctic with regard to how polar bears are responding to reduced summer sea ice. The plea to ‘Save Our Sea Ice‘ for the sake of polar bear survival is a climate change marketing slogan, not a scientific assessment.

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The Climate Model Muddle

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By Ed Zuiderwijk – Re-Blogged From WUWT

This is a posting about the epistemology of climate models, about what we can learn from them about the future. The answer will disappoint: not much. In order to convince you of the veracity of that proposition I will first tell you a little story, an allegory if you want, regarding a thought experiment, a completely fictitious account of what a research project might look like, and then apply whatever insight we gained (if any) to the climate modelling scene.

A thought experiment

Here’s the thought experiment: We want to make a compound that produces colour somehow (the mechanism how it does that is not really relevant). However, we specifically want a well-defined colour, prescribed by whatever application it is going to be used for. Say a shade of turquoise.

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25 for 25

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By David Archibald – Re-Blogged From WUWT

Back on March 7, 2006, the National Science Foundation issued a press release predicting that the amplitude of Solar Cycle 24 would be “30 to 50 percent stronger” than Solar Cycle 23. Solar Cycle 23 had a smoothed maximum amplitude of 180.3. The press release described the forecast as “unprecedented”. Perhaps it was as in unprecedentedly wrong. Solar Cycle 24 had a smoothed maximum amplitude of 116.4 in April 2014, which made it 35% weaker than Solar Cycle 23.

NASA has recycled some of the language from that 2006 press release in this release on NASA researcher Irina Kitiashvili’s forecast of Solar Cycle 25 amplitude which includes this line:

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Economist Foresees “Quick Decline” in US Oil Production

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By David Middleton – Re-Blogged From WUWT

U.S. Oil Production Is Headed For A Quick Decline

By Philip Verleger – Mar 11, 2019

The most recent forecasts published by the US Energy Information Administration show US oil production increasing steadily. The February Short-Term Energy Outlook sees the output from US wells rising from 11.9 million barrels per day at the end of 2018 to 13.5 million barrels per day by the end of 2020. Most other forecasters agree.

Thus, it may come as a surprise to learn that production at the end of 2020 may have actually decreased from December’s 11.9 million barrels per day level to between 11.3 and 11.5 million barrels per day. This lower figure represents the production level that should be expected given the financial activity of the independent firms behind the shale output surge.
The coming decline will occur mostly in the areas that have produced the most growth over the last five years: the Bakken, Eagle Ford, Haynesville, Julesburg, and Permian basins. The production drop will occur because the firms operating there have been forced by monetary constraints to cut back on drilling. The recent reduction in debt and equity issuance by these firms assure the output decline.

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