Decline of the U.S. Dollar Could Happen at ‘Warp Speed’

Stephen Roach, a Yale University senior fellow and former Morgan Stanley Asia chairman, tells MarketWatch that his forecast for a sharp deterioration of the U.S. dollar could be a very near-term phenomenon, not an event that looms off in the distance.

“I do think it’s something that happens sooner rather than later,” the economist told MarketWatch during a Monday-afternoon interview.

His comments come as the financial expert has been warning for weeks of an epic downturn of the buck that could signal the end of the hegemony of the greenback as a reserve currency — an event that would ripple through global financial markets.

Stephen Roach

World Now Faces ‘Monetary Armageddon’

By Mike Gleason – Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle

Mike Gleason (Money Metals Exchange): It is my privilege now to interview our good friend, Greg Weldon, CEO and President of Weldon Financial. Greg has decades of market research and trading experience specializing in the metals and commodity markets and he even authored a book back in 2006 titled Gold Trading Boot Camp where we accurately predicted the implosion of the U.S. credit market and urged people to buy gold when it was only $550 an ounce. He’s made some fantastic calls over the last few years here on our podcast and it’s great to have him back with us.

We did speak to you back at the end of February before all this madness started. At the time, COVID-19 had begun seriously impacting economic activity in global markets, maybe not so much in the U.S. Now, just two months later, more than 30 million people have filed for unemployment, GDP was deeply negative in the first quarter and figures to be even worse here in Q2. But the equity markets are acting as if the worst is behind us. We got a major correction followed by an almost relentless rally. Our take is that equity markets are completely disconnected from reality. They are hitched, instead, to the Fed’s magic money machine. What is your take on how stock markets are behaving here, Greg?

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Market Advances & Declines

[A “BEV” Chart shows the last high as 0% with pullbacks, corrections, and bear mrkets as percntages below the most recent high. -Bob]
By Mark J Lundeen – Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle

This week the Dow Jones saw above average volatility, especially early in the week, but on Friday closed only 3.92% from its last all-time high.

The Dow Jones in the table below (#10) was down 6% at Monday’s close, but recovered as the week progressed to Friday’s close, and that was the story for the rest of the indexes in the table too.

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Falling Yields And Currency Turmoil

By Mike Gleason – Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle

What a wild week it’s been for investors.

The threat of global trade wars and currency wars sparked big swings across all major asset classes. Bond yields dove toward historic lows. Stocks plunged earlier in the week before rebounding sharply by Thursday. And precious metals rode a huge safe-haven wave higher.

Gold prices eclipsed the $1,500 level on Wednesday for the first time in over six years. Meanwhile, silver price pushed above $17 an ounce to record a one-year high. Both metals are up over 4% for the week.

The money metals are becoming increasingly attractive as President Donald Trump ramps up his battles against China abroad and the Federal Reserve at home.

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After Fed Disappoints, Will Trump Initiate Currency Intervention?

[Views may differ, but why would any sane person want to keep rates around 2% or lower, well below market clearing levels? -Bob]

Following months of cajoling by the White House, the Federal Reserve finally cut its benchmark interest rate. However, the reaction in equity and currency markets was not the one President Donald Trump wanted – or many traders anticipated.

The Trump administration wants the Fed to help drive the fiat U.S. dollar lower versus foreign currencies, especially those of major exporting countries.

Instead, the U.S. Dollar Index rallied throughout July ahead of the expected rate cut and continued rallying after Fed chairman Jerome Powell made it official on Wednesday.

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Tariffs, Rate Cuts And Devaluation Whispers

Mike GleasonBy  – Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle

Well, after months of presidential complaining, tweeting, and pressuring, Donald Trump finally got a rate cut from the Fed.

A lower interest rate was supposed to stimulate the stock market and make the dollar cheaper versus the currencies of exporting countries — thereby making U.S. products more competitive according to Trumponomics.

Instead, stocks fell, and the U.S. Dollar Index broke out to a two-year high following the Federal Reserve’s policy move on Wednesday.

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Broken Markets And Fragile Currencies

By Alasdair Macleod – Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle

There are growing signs that the global economic slowdown is for real. As was the case in 1929, the combination of the peak of the credit cycle coupled with trade protectionism in the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act are similar conditions to those of today and potentially pose a serious economic challenge to the post-Bretton Woods fiat currency system. Therefore, we must consider the consequences if monetary policy fails to contain the developing recession and it turns into a full-blown slump. Complacency over broken markets is no longer an option, with rising prices for gold and bitcoin signalling the prospect of a new round of currency debasement to avoid market distortions unwinding. This article shows why this outcome could undermine fiat currencies entirely and looks at the alternatives of bitcoin and gold in this context.

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Dancing Closer to the Exits

By Rick Mills – Re-Blogged From Ahead of the Heard

When Americans elect or re-elect a president in the fall of 2020, there is a very good chance the closest thing to their hearts – their wallets – will be top of mind.

 

That’s because many are predicting the longest-running economic expansion in US history is about to slam on the brakes. It’s been over a decade since The Great Recession of 2007-09 plunged the world into monetary despair. That downturn was particularly bad because it combined an economic slowdown with problems in the financial system, rudely exposed by the sub-prime mortgage crisis.

 

In this article we are asking, what is the best indicator for predicting the next recession? What does the current data say about a recession?

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Irredeemable Currency Is A Roach Motel

By Keith Weiner  – Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle

In what has become a four-part series, we are looking at the monetary science of China’s potential strategy to nuke the Treasury bond market. In Part I, we gave a list of reasons why selling dollars would hurt China. In Part II we showed that interest rates, being that the dollar is irredeemable, are not subject to bond vigilantes. In Part III, we took on the Quantity Theory of Money head-on, and showed the counterintuitive property that, the more dollars are out there, the greater the demand.

Now in this essay, we will tie this all together.

You could say it in one sentence: the regime of irredeemable currency has unintended consequences. We often say that we do not prefer the term “unintended consequences” because it puts the emphasis on the alleged intentions of those who perpetrated it. As we discussed in another recent article, John Maynard Keynes’ intentions really were evil.

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Global Manufacturers Just Shrank For The First Time in 7 Years

Perhaps surprising no one, global manufacturers are now in contraction mode for the first time since 2012. That’s according to the most recent reading of the sector’s health, the purchasing manager’s index (PMI), which headed lower for a record 13th straight month in May. The PMI posted 49.8, down from 50.4 a month earlier. As a reminder, anything above 50.0 indicates expansion; anything below, contraction.

Less than half of world economies’ manufacturing sectors are expanding right now, “the worst showing since the throes of the euro area sovereign debt crisis in 2012,” according to analysis by Neil Dutta, head of economics at Renaissance Macro Research (RenMac).

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Useless…But Not Worthless

By Keith Weiner – Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle

Let’s continue to look at the fiasco in the franc. We say “fiasco”, because anyone in Switzerland who is trying to save for retirement has been put on a treadmill, which is now running backwards at –¾ mph (yes, miles per hour in keeping with our treadmill analogy). Instead of being propelled forward towards their retirement goals by earning interest that compounds, they are losing principal. They will never reach their retirement goals. If you disagree, we encourage you to model it.

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The Credit Cycle Is On The Turn

By Alasdair Macleod – Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle

We are on the verge of moving into an era of high interest rates, so markets will behave differently from any time since the early-1980s. There are enough similarities with the post-Bretton Woods era of the 1970s to give us some guidance as to how markets are likely to evolve in the foreseeable future.

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The “Strong Dollar” Buys Less

By Clint Siegner – Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle

Some of last week’s weakness in the stock market was attributed to surprisingly week jobs report on Friday. Non-farm payrolls came in significantly below projections.

However, much of that weakness was explained by Hurricane Florence. And the headline unemployment rate dropped to 3.7% – the lowest in almost 50 years.

Much was made of that, while almost nothing was made of the rate of employment at 60.4% – also near 50-year lows.

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Beginning Of The End Of The Dollar

By Rick Mills – Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle

Donald Trump will go down in history for many things, including a justice department investigation into US-Russian collusion in the 2016 election, a guilty verdict for his former campaign chair, Paul Manafort, and a guilty plea by his personal lawyer, Michael Cohen, in relation to hush-money payments to women in violation of campaign finance laws. Then there was the Access Hollywood tape, the ban on Muslims, the implicit condoning of neo-Nazis, the plans to build a border wall to keep out illegal Mexicans, the separation of immigrant children from their parents (though some say that law was drafted under Obama), and Trump’s ban on global abortion funding to please the pro-life portion of his base. Could Trump’s legacy though be something few had ever predicted: The beginning of the end of the dollar?

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US Government Is “Missing” $21 Trillion

By Mark O’Byrne – Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle

– The U.S. government is “missing” $21 trillion between the Department of Defence (DOD) and Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD)

– Investment advisor and former Assistant Secretary of Housing, Catherine Austin Fitts, predicts the global financial system “will take some big hits before the end of the year” (see video below)

– They can publish financial statements that are”complete fiction with no accountability to you and call it national security”

– Gold is one of the “primary real assets” and a “core holding” … “I love gold … I am also a silver fan”

– “I am getting reports that silver is getting hard to find …  go and try to buy a bunch of silver. It’s tough…”

– “But make sure wherever you hold your gold” that the “custodian relationships” and where you have gold and silver stored are “absolutely safe”

– Own “real assets” and “have as little leverage and debt as possible…”

Join Greg Hunter as he goes One-on-One with Catherine Austin Fitts, Publisher of The Solari Report. Courtesy of USAWatchdog

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The Dollar is Central to the Next Crisis

By Alasdair Macleod – Re-Blogged From GoldMoney

Introduction And Summary

It is now possible to pencil in how the next credit crisis is likely to develop. At its centre is an overvalued dollar over-owned by foreigners, puffed up on speculative flows driven by interest rate differentials.  These must be urgently corrected by the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan if the distortion is to be prevented from becoming much worse.

The problem is compounded because the next crisis is likely to be triggered by this normalisation. It can be expected to commence in the coming months, even by the year-end. When flows into the dollar subside and reverse, bond yields can be expected to rise sharply in all the major currencies. There will also be a number of other unhelpful factors, particularly rising commodity prices, the timing of the Trump stimulus and trade tariffs pushing up price inflation. Coupled with a declining dollar, price inflation and therefore interest rates are bound to rise significantly.

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A Submerging Global Economy

By Egon von Greyerz – Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle

Many emerging markets are now turning to submerging markets as country after country is experiencing falling economies, currencies and stock markets.

The currency is often the best indication of a country’s economic health. Just look at these six currencies submerging into obscurity:

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Currency Woes

By Alasdair Macleod – Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle

This week’s collapse of the Turkish lira has dominated the headlines, and it is widely reported that this and other emerging market currencies are in trouble because of the withdrawal of dollar liquidity. There are huge quantities of footloose dollars betting against these weak currencies, as well as commodities and gold, on the basis the long-expected squeeze on dollar liquidity is finally upon us.

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Dollar/Yuan and Treasuries/Gold

   By Bob Shapiro

The relationship between currencies on the FOREX market has a lot to do with the trade balances between countries. If a country consistently runs a trade surplus against a second country, most likely its currency will rise. Certainly, there are other factors, mainly bearing on how they affect expectations of future trade.

For many years, China has run a trade surplus with the US. Of course, as China exports goods containing components from other of its trading partners, the China/US trade balance likely is overstated. But, China still has a surplus.

Image result for image china

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Currency War Erupts

By Bloomberg – Re-Blogged From Newsmax

The currency war has arrived.

So say some of the best and brightest in the $5.1 trillion-per-day foreign-exchange market. U.S. President Donald Trump on Friday accused China and the European Union of “manipulating their currencies and interest rates lower.” The comments came after the yuan plunged to its lowest level in a year, with little sign of China’s central bank intervening to stem the slide. They also follow a decline in the euro this year and add to the calculus that European Central Bank policy makers might need to consider when they meet next week.

Image: Currency War Erupts, Threatening to Ripple Across Global Markets

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The Impact Of Currency Exchange Rates On The Economy

   By Katherine Reed

Most people see currency conversion as something simple that appears because of a need to change currency. The problem is that currency exchange is incredibly complicated and there are so many different things that are analyzed when the rates are calculated. The truth is that exchange rates will always have an impact on business and since the economic recession hit many companies, the impact is a lot higher at the moment. Drastic fluctuations will affect the entire global training market.

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America’s Stagflation

By Alasdair Macleod – Re-Blogged From http://www.Gold-Eagle.com

The accumulation of monetary policy errors by the Fed is increasingly certain to culminate in the credit crisis that always marks the end of the credit cycle. Credit crises are the result of globally coordinated monetary policies nowadays, so the timing of the forthcoming crunch is not only dependant on the Fed’s actions, but is equally likely to be triggered from elsewhere. Candidates for triggering a global credit crisis include economic and financial developments in Europe, Japan and China.

The next crisis is set to be more serious than the global crisis of 2008/09, given the greater level of debt involved, and the exceptionally high rate of monetary inflation since. It is a story I have covered elsewhere. This article will concentrate on the prospects for the US economy ahead of the next credit crisis, and the implications for the dollar and its associated financial markets.

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Bad News Banksters Double Cross Their Customers

Re-Blogged From http://www.MoneyMetals.com

Crooked bankers are all over the headlines again.

The world’s largest metals hedge fund, Red Kite Management, Ltd., is suing Barclays for rigging copper prices. Federal prosecutors launched an investigation of Wells Fargo bankers working on its foreign exchange desk Friday. And on October 23rd, a jury in New York convicted an HSBC trader of fraud.

The HSBC trader, Mark Johnson, said he “thought we got away with it” to his coworkers after cheating their client in a massive foreign exchange transaction. But he was wrong. The jury found him guilty for his involvement in a 2011 exchange in which the Cairn Energy Plc converted $3.5 billion dollars to British pounds.

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Run On The Pound Sterling

By Mark O’Byrne – Re-Blogged From http://www.Silver-Phoenix500.com

Right to plan for ‘run on pound’ if Labour wins says Corbyn and Labour party 

– British pound already down 20% since Brexit, collapse already in play

– Run on the pound likely due to Labour’s ‘command economy’ approach

– Collapse in Sterling would undermine UK financial system

– Portfolios holding sterling and related assets would be significantly affected

– Pension funds and property the most likely to get hit by run on the pound

– Gold to benefit as sterling collapse picks up pace

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On December 14th Whirlybird Janet Will Be In A Very, Very “Hot Seat”

By Andrew Hoffman – Re-Blogged From http://www.Gold-Eagle.com

It’s Friday night, after another week of financial market ignominy has passed; fortunately, without further damage to those holding REAL money. Which fortunately, is likely to be extremely limited going forward, given how low Precious Metal “valuations” have been driven, amidst the most bullish fundamental environment imaginable. Heck, whilst the paper gold price has been mercilessly attacked – as countless fiat currencies crash, amidst an environment of unprecedented economic and political instability – physical demand has exploded.

To wit, physical gold is trading around $1,700/oz in India; whilst Chinese physical premiums have surged to their highest level since April 2013’s “Alternative Currencies Destruction” raid; which, I might add, caused May 2013 to be Miles Franklin’s best ever month. To that end, yesterday was the single strongest day of Shanghai Exchange physical gold offtake all year; and November, the year’s strongest month for U.S. Mint gold Eagle sales – surpassing…drum roll please…October, which saw a dramatic demand surge following the Cartel’s blatant October 4th attack, just after China’s markets closed for the “Golden Week” holiday.

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This Is What Gold Does In A Currency Crisis, Brexit Edition

By John Rubino – Re-Blogged From Dollar Collapse

In June the UK shocked the world – or at least the world’s elites – by voting to pull out of the European Union. Economists predicted disaster, EU leaders threatened pain for British exporters and tourists, and the media settled in to watch the UK shrivel and die.

Four months later, the appropriate response is a yawn rather than a scream.

UK economy set to shrug off Brexit in latest GDP figures…For now

(CNBC) – The first indications of how the U.K. economy is performing in the aftermath of the Brexit vote will be known this Thursday, with the release of quarterly gross domestic product (GDP) figures.

Analysts told CNBC they forecast a 0.4 percent growth in the third quarter of this year – an “upside surprise” following the decision last June to leave the European Union. Prior to the vote, many market observers were pointing to economic contractions if voters opted to leave the EU.

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Massive Twin Deficits To Impact UK Assets

By Mark O’Byrne – Re-Blogged From http://www.Gold-Eagle.com

Sterling is now the worst performing major currency in 2016 and gold the best.

The pound has completed its worst four day performance since Brexit and the pound remains considerably weaker versus the dollar, euro and gold since the Conservative Party conference, when Theresa May promised to trigger article 50 within six months.

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Ten Investor Warning Signs for 2016

By Michael Pento – Re-Blogged From http://www.PentoPort.com

Wall Street’s proclivity to create serial equity bubbles off the back of cheap credit has once again set up the middle class for disaster. The warning signs of this next correction have now clearly manifested, but are being skillfully obfuscated and trivialized by financial institutions. Nevertheless, here are ten salient warning signs that astute investors should heed as we roll into 2016.

  1. The Baltic Dry Index, a measure of shipping rates and a barometer for worldwide commodity demand, recently fell to its lowest level since 1985. This index clearly portrays the dramatic decrease in global trade and forebodes a worldwide recession.

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Fed’s ‘Recovery’ Hoax Takes A Pounding

By Rick Ackerman – Re-Blogged From http://www.Silver-Phoenix500.com

It’s always refreshing to see the stock market get the crap kicked out of it, even if it will take a 10,000-point fall in the Dow to cast out the thieves, thimble-riggers, broad-tossers, carny men, grifters, mountebanks and child molesters who have ruled the global banking system for the last umpteen years. The sleazeballs tried to run up stocks yesterday on the latest Fed ‘news’ — and what a shocker it was!  Seems that the ‘done deal’ calling for tightening in September has been undone yet again. Surprise, surprise. We have stuck to our guns on this one, shouting from the rooftops for the last two years that the Fed will NEVER raise rates.

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Trading The Parabolic Dollar

By Adam Hamilton – Re-Blogged From http://www.Gold-Eagle.com

The mighty US dollar has been red-hot in March, rocketing higher on the incredible divergence of major central-bank policies.  While the Federal Reserve’s first rate-hike cycle in 9 years looms, the European Central Bank has started aggressively monetizing sovereign debt for the first time ever.  The resulting yield differential has catapulted the dollar parabolic, portending a major reversal and fantastic trading opportunity.

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The CPI and The Dollar

cropped-bob-shapiro.jpg   By Bob Shapiro

The Year-Over-Year rise in the official CPI has turned negative, while the ShadowStats versions, using the BLS calculation methodologies used in 1990 and 1980, still show positive if lowered price increase rates. The 1990 methodology shows prices 3 1/2 % higher than a year earlier, down from a 5 1/2 % rise last year from the previous 12 months. The 1980 methodology shows a slowing of consumer price hikes to about 5% (YOY) compared to the previous year’s 10% (YOY) rate.

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The Euro May Be Riskier Than You Think

By Alasdair Macleod – Re-Blogged From http://www.Silver-Phoenex500.com

Finance ministers in the Eurozone appear to have had a free lesson in game theory from Professor Yanis Varoufakis, the Greek finance minister. At the time of writing Greece’s future in the Eurozone is far from secured, but it appears that Greece has achieved something.

He gave his fellow finance ministers a deal they dared not refuse, though it still has to be ratified by some parliaments, including Germany’s today. Varoufakis almost certainly understands that the Eurozone is in a weaker position than the bureaucrats and finance ministers themselves believed. It was important for them to become aware of this reality, which was central to his approach.

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Arbitrage, Interest, & Exchange Rates

cropped-bob-shapiro.jpg   By Bob Shapiro

Arbitrage is an unfamiliar term. However, our Economy depends on it for every transaction. The simplest explanation is buying cheap in one market and selling higher in another market.

Everyday, you sell your productive work time in exchange for the necessities, and luxuries, of life. You wouldn’t do it unless you believed that your time was of cheaper value – to you – than the things you exchange it for.

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The Dollar in FOREX Markets

cropped-bob-shapiro.jpg   By Bob Shapiro

The paper currencies of all countries fluctuate in exchange rate for several reasons, mostly (but not always) due to government policies.

The exchange rate for the Euro (since 1999 when the Euro was introduced) vs the US Dollar, started around $1.18, dropped to $0.83 in 2001, jumped up to $1.60 in 2008, and now is back just below where it started, today at $1.1275 per Euro.

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