Continue To Beware The Job Numbers (Is it The Bureau Of Labor Statistics Or Bureau of Lying Statistics?)

By David Haggith – Re-Blogged From http://www.Silver-Phoenix500.com

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Near-Record 94.6 Million Americans Aren’t in Workforce

Re-Blogged From http://www.newsmax.com

Behind the cheerful spin the Labor Department and government talking heads put on the official monthly jobs data is a sobering reality: a more-realistic unemployment rate is probably closer to 10 percent and a wide swatch of the American public remains out of work.

Friday’s report sketched a picture of a resilient job market that likely keeps the Federal Reserve on track to raise interest rates when it meets next month.

Yet the economy remains pocketed by weaknesses that have left many feeling left behind on the eve of Election Day. Job gains have been steady, but pay raises have only recently become widespread. And millions of Americans are working part time but would prefer full-time work.

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Peddling Fiction, Ignoring Fact

By Peter Schiff – Re-Blogged From Euro Pacific Capital

In his seventh, and final, State of the Union address this January, President Obama, clearly looking to bolster his legacy as the president who vanquished the Great Recession, boldly asserted that “Anyone claiming that America’s economy is in decline is peddling fiction.”  Unfortunately for the President, more and more Americans seem to believe (with an adequate basis in proof) that the fiction is emanating from the White House.
It’s hard to imagine how anyone can really assert with a straight face that the economy is currently “strong.” The most recent Gross Domestic Product (GDP), from 4th Quarter 2015, shows us barely inching along at a 1% annualized growth rate (Bureau of Economic Analysis, 2/26/16). Given that moderate growth used to be measured in the 3%-4% range, and that recent declines in the trade balance could further subtract from both 4th (2015) and 1st quarter GDP, we could be forgiven for raising an eyebrow or two in reaction to Obama’s boast. Continue reading

Why The Bulls Will Get Slaughtered

By David Stockman – Re-Blogged From http://davidstockmanscontracorner.com

Well, they got that right. Detecting that “parts of the U.S. jobs report for January seem fishy”, MarketWatch offered this pictorial summary:

Needless to say, none of that stink was detected by Steve Liesman and his band of Jobs Friday half-wits who bloviate on bubblevision after each release. This time the BLS report actually showed the US economy lost 2.989 million jobs between December and January. Yet Moody’s Keynesian pitchman, Mark Zandi described it as “perfect”

Yes, the BLS always uses a big seasonal adjustment (SA) in January——so that’s how they got the positive headline number. But the point is that the seasonal adjustment factor for the month is so huge that the resulting month-over-month delta is inherently just plain noise.

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Happy New Employment

cropped-bob-shapiro.jpg   By Bob Shapiro

As we are about to ring in the new year, we can give thanks for the “Full Employment” Economy. That big Thank You needs to go to the manipulators of the official statistics over at the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and elsewhere in our government.

It should be remembered that the Participation Rate among working age Americans is at a multi-generation record low. 10 Million Americans or more burned through over a year’s worth of unemployment benefits, and still could not find a job which payed more than Welfare and Food Stamps.

These people, who have given up hope, were re-defined out of the ranks of the officially unemployed. Too bad for them, but they no longer count – or rather no longer are being counted.

However, some people were able to find full time jobs, even if the skill level – and pay level – was far below what the had become accustomed to. Too bad for them, but having to accept half of what they used to be paid, doesn’t mean they are unemployed. Under-employed people don’t count – or don’t get counted by the BLS.

Some formerly unemployed Americans have accepted part-time jobs. Checking the official numbers, part-time positions have skyrocketed while full-time openings have plunged. (The surge in part-time vs full-time jobs must be one of the hidden “Benefits!” of ObamaCare.) But again, a job is a job, so no use complaining about it. And, no use expecting to be counted as unemployed.

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These Ain’t Your Grandfather’s “Jobs”

By David Stockman – Re-Blogged From http://davidstockmanscontracorner.com

This “Jobs Friday” ritual is getting truly absurd. So it can’t be repeated often enough: These artifacts of the BLS’ seasonally maladjusted, trend-cycle modeled, heavily imputed, endlessly crafted and five times revised “jobs” numbers have precious little to do with the real health of the main street economy.

Indeed, the six-year run of job gains since early 2010 primarily represents “born-again jobs” and part-time gigs. In economic terms, they do not remotely resemble your grandfather’s industrial era economy when a “job” lasted 40 to 50 hours per week all year round; and most of what the BLS survey counted as “jobs” paid a living wage.

Not now. Not even close.

The Wall Street fools who bought the dip still another time on Friday do not have the slightest clue that the US jobs market is actually quite dead.

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Barack Obama Tells Another Whopper—He Did Not Create 12.8 Million Jobs

By David Stockman – Re-Blogged From http://davidstockmanscontracorner.com

America is better off when President Obama is out on the stump bloviating and boasting rather than in Washington actively doing harm. But the whoppers he just told the students at the University of Wisconsin are beyond the pale. Said our spinmeister-in-chief:

 And the unemployment rate is now down to 5.3 percent. (Applause.) Keep in mind, when I came into office it was hovering around 10 percent. All told, we’ve now seen 64 straight months of private sector job growth, which is a new record — (applause) — new record — 12.8 million new jobs all told.

That’s a pack of context-free factoids. There is still such a thing as the business cycle, and only economically illiterate hacks—-like those who work on the White House speech writing staff—-would measure anything from the deep V-shaped but momentary bottom that happened to occur during Obama’s second year in office. What counts is not that we’ve had a bounce after a terrible bust, but where we are now on a trend basis.

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