Gold-Stock Correction Mode

By Adam Hamilton – Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle

The gold miners’ stocks are mired in correction mode, which isn’t surprising after their mighty post-stock-panic upleg. Huge buying catapulting them higher left this sector extremely overbought. Corrections are normal and healthy after prices get too stretched technically. They eradicate upleg toppings’ excessive greed, rebalancing sentiment. That paves the way for bulls’ next uplegs, and offers great buying opportunities.

The most-popular gold-stock benchmark today is the GDX VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF. It includes the world’s biggest and best gold miners, dwarfing its peers in size. Launched way back in May 2006, GDX’s first-mover advantage has grown insurmountable. This ETF’s $17.9b in net assets this week are running 31.4x larger than its next biggest competitor’s in the 1x-long major-gold-miners-ETF space. GDX is king.

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Silver Miners’ Q2’20 Fundamentals

By Adam Hamilton – Re-Blogged From Silver Phoenix

The silver miners’ stocks have had a roller-coaster ride of a year, getting sucked into March’s stock panic before skyrocketing out in a massive upleg. While much-higher prevailing silver prices radically improve silver-stock fundamentals, Q2’s national economic lockdowns to fight COVID-19 wreaked havoc on this sector. The silver miners’ latest quarterly results recently released revealed unprecedented challenges.

The silver-stock realm is tiny, as there aren’t many major silver miners in the world. Only a handful are primary silver producers, companies deriving over half their revenues from silver. So in mid-August as silver miners finished reporting their latest Q2’20 operational and financial results, this sector’s leading benchmark and trading vehicle only held $1.1b in net assets. It is the SIL Global X Silver Miners ETF.

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Gold Mid-Tiers’ Q2’20 Fundamentals

By Adam Hamilton – Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle

The mid-tier gold miners in this sector’s sweet spot for upside potential have had a spectacular run since March’s stock panic!  That catapulted them to extremely-overbought levels, necessitating a correction to rebalance sentiment.  The mid-tiers’ just-reported Q2’20 operational and financial results reveal whether those big gains were fundamentally-righteous, and whether more major upside is likely in coming months.

Mid-tier gold miners produce between 300k to 1m ounces of gold annually, more than smaller juniors but less than larger majors.  Mid-tiers are far less risky than juniors, and amplify gold’s uplegs much more than majors.  Their unique mix of sizable diversified gold production, material output-growth potential, and smaller market capitalizations is ideal for outsized gains.  They are the best gold stocks for traders to own.

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Gold Miners’ Q2’20 Fundamentals

By Adam Hamilton – Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle

The major gold miners’ stocks have skyrocketed since mid-March’s stock panic, attracting in a deluge of new capital inflows. That recently catapulted this normally-contrarian sector to extremely-overbought levels, necessitating a rebalancing correction. The gold miners are just finishing reporting their operating and financial results from the challenging last quarter. Was gold stocks’ huge upleg fundamentally justified?

The leading and dominant gold-stock benchmark and trading vehicle today is the GDX VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF. Launched way back in May 2006, GDX’s first-mover advantage has grown into an insurmountable lead. With $16.8b of net assets this week, GDX commands a staggering 31.7x more capital than its next-biggest 1x-long major-gold-miners-ETF competitor! GDX is really the only game in town.

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Gold And Silver Very Overbought

By Adam Hamilton – Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle

Both gold and silver surged dramatically higher this past week, propelled by torrents of investment capital deluging in.  The resulting major new highs are really exciting, unleashing widespread fear-of-missing-out buying.  But the precious metals’ blistering jumps have left them very overbought.  They have come so far so fast they are at and above technical extremes that have proven unsustainable.  So caution is in order here.

Gold and silver are powering higher on balance in secular bull markets that have been running for years.  And their fundamental underpinnings are stronger than ever.  The Fed’s astoundingly-epic money printing since mid-March’s stock panic has catapulted stock markets to dangerous bubble valuations.  And the vast majority of investors have yet to diversify their stock-heavy portfolios with counter-moving precious metals.

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Gold Stocks Blast Higher

By Adam Hamilton – Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle

The gold miners’ stocks are blasting higher, just achieving major new secular highs!  Traders are flocking back to gold stocks as the metal they produce relentlessly advances on strong investment demand.  That is atypical during market summers, but the pandemic has made for unprecedented times.  This gold-stock upleg is big, but doesn’t look excessive yet.  It should keep marching with investment capital flowing into gold.

With these red-hot stock markets fueled by extreme Fed money printing, the small contrarian gold-stock sector has largely remained overlooked.  But the gold miners’ gains since March’s stock panic have been awesome.  The leading and dominant gold-stock benchmark is the GDX VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF.  Its impressive $16.9b in net assets this week doubled all the rest of the US gold-stock ETFs combined!

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Gold-Stock Upleg Healthy

By Adam Hamilton – Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle

The gold miners’ stocks just rolled over into a correction, raising concerns about the staying power of their massive post-panic upleg.  These higher prevailing gold prices have driven very-strong fundamentals at the gold miners.  But they are entering the seasonally-weak summer doldrums.  And current sentiment and technicals play major roles in governing when uplegs remain healthy or ready to give up their ghosts.

The GDX VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF remains the leading and dominant benchmark for this small contrarian sector.  Its $14.3b in net assets this week were a colossal 33.2x bigger than those of its next-largest 1x-long major-gold-miners-ETF competitor!  GDX’s only real rival is its little-brother GDXJ mid-tier gold-miners ETF, which is only about one-third of GDX’s size.  The GDX gold stocks have sure had a wild ride.

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Gold Mid-Tiers’ Q1’20 Fundamentals

By Adam Hamilton – Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle

The mid-tier gold miners in the sweet spot for stock-price upside potential have enjoyed a massive run since mid-March’s stock-panic lows.  They’ve already more than doubled in the couple months since!  Their just-released Q1’20 operational and financial results reveal whether these huge gains are righteous fundamentally, whether this uptrend is likely to persist, and how COVID-19 shutdowns are affecting gold miners.

Interestingly the leading mid-tier gold-stock ETF is the famous GDXJ VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF.  Despite its misleading name, GDXJ is overwhelmingly dominated by mid-tier gold miners.  They produce 300k to 1m ounces of gold annually, between the smaller juniors and larger majors.  The mid-tiers offer an excellent mix of sizable diversified production, output-growth potential, and smaller market caps.

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Gold Miners’ Q1’20 Fundamentals

By Adam Hamilton – Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle

The major gold miners’ stocks have rallied dramatically out of mid-March’s stock-panic lows, soaring to new bull-market highs. Their just-reported Q1’20 operational and financial results reveal whether today’s higher gold-stock prices are fundamentally justified. They also illuminate whether this gold-stock upleg is likely to continue powering higher, despite the catastrophic economic damage from governments’ lockdowns.

With officials around the world waging a scorched-earth war against this COVID-19 pandemic, the gold miners’ latest quarterly results are more important than ever. While this earnings season covered Q1’20, most gold companies didn’t release their quarterly reports until the last couple weeks. In them they had to disclose the ongoing impact of governments’ COVID-19 lockdowns current to those quarterlies’ release dates.

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Gold Stocks Crash, V-Bounce!

By Adam Hamilton – Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle

Gold miners’ stocks have endured epic volatility in this past month, literally crashing before blasting back higher in a violent V-bounce.  That preceding wicked capitulation flush savagely forced the weak hands out, paving the way for gold stocks’ next major upleg.  The resulting fierce rebound signals it is already underway, with plenty of speculators and investors now chasing the huge gains this sector is famous for.

Perspective is essential and exceedingly-valuable for traders.  If you don’t know where we’ve been and how we got here, you can’t figure out where we’re likely going.  Context is necessary to frame this past month’s extraordinary gold-stock action, and to successfully game where this sector should be heading.  Extreme volatility creates extreme opportunities, neither of which come around very often.  Carpe diem!

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Gold Mid-Tiers’ Q4’19 Fundamentals

By Adam Hamilton – Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle

The mid-tier gold miners’ stocks have been annihilated with COVID-19 fears infecting traders’ sentiment. They crashed with gold getting hammered on extreme gold-futures selling! With blood in the streets, the buy-low opportunities are phenomenal. The fundamentally-superior mid-tier gold miners have epic upside potential during gold’s next upleg. This key sector just reported outstanding Q4’19 results on higher gold.

The sheer carnage in gold-stock-land has been jaw-dropping! In late February, the gold-stock sector per its leading benchmark GDX VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF edged up to a 3.5-year high slightly above early September’s. That was fueled by gold’s $1600 breakout surge on COVID-19 fears. Yet as I warned in an essay the trading day before GDX’s peak, gold’s surge was peculiar and precarious lacking normal drivers.

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Big US Stocks’ Q4’19 Fundamentals

By Adam Hamilton – Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle

Stock-market volatility has exploded on COVID-19 fears, shattering the Fed’s QE4-fueled levitation.  The resulting stunning sentiment shift has left investors and speculators wondering where these wild markets are heading.  This is an important time to check the latest fundamentals underlying the big US stocks that dominate market action.  They just finished reporting their Q4’19 results, which illuminate their valuations.

Recent weeks’ stock-market swings have been huge, driven by mounting worries about the economic fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic.  For 6 weeks I’ve covered this virus’s daily progression in depth in our subscription newsletters, including many troubling reports out of China that the media ignored.  Before this selloff, I recommended long-volatility and short-stock-market trades that surged to big realized gains up to +145%.

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Gold-Miner Valuations

By Adam Hamilton – Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle

The gold miners’ stocks have spent the past half-year mired in a high consolidation.  They haven’t been able to break out, but aren’t breaking down either.  This technical purgatory is working to slowly bleed off overboughtness and rebalance sentiment.  This necessary process to eradicate greed from the last upleg peak is never exciting.  But today’s low gold-miner valuations reveal great upside potential in their next upleg.

The world’s leading and dominant gold-stock trading vehicle and benchmark is the GDX VanEck Vectors Gold Miners exchange-traded fund.  It commanded $13.2b in net assets in the middle of this week, 2.7x larger than its next-biggest competitor GDXJ.  The major gold miners’ stocks included in GDX soared this past summer, blasting higher after gold’s decisive breakout to its bull market’s first new highs in several years.

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Gold-Stock Head Fake?

By Adam Hamilton – Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle

Gold miners’ stocks blasted higher this past week, breaking out of their correction downtrend.  Rapidly-improving psychology fueled such strong upside momentum that sector benchmarks are challenging months-old upleg highs.  Most traders assume this is righteous, that gold stocks’ next upleg is starting to accelerate.  But key indicators argue the contrarian side, that this breakout surge is a head fake within a correction.

In early September, a major gold-stock upleg peaked after soaring higher on gold’s decisive bull-market breakout in late June.  The GDX VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF, this sector’s leading benchmark and trading vehicle, had powered 76.2% higher over 11.8 months.  It crested the same day gold’s own upleg did, hitting $30.95 on close.  That major 3.1-year high proved the apex of that impressive gold-stock upleg.

Gold started grinding lower after its own September 4th upleg zenith of $1554, capping a massive 32.4% run over 12.6 months.  The gold stocks corrected with gold like usual, as these miners are essentially leveraged plays on gold.  Since their earnings amplify gold-price changes, the major gold stocks dominating GDX generally leverage gold by 2x to 3xSo the gold stocks drifted lower over the next several months.

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The Narrative About Gold Is Changing Again

By Arkadiusz Sieroń – Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle

Teaser: Let’s face it, we live in a world of radical uncertainty. Yet we’re supposed to make perfectly rational decisions – so, how do we cope with the unknown? We tell narratives, and form our decisions around them! Let’s explore the narratives in the financial markets for it reveals their importance to the gold market.

Let’s face it, we live in a world of radical uncertainty. There are not only many known unknowns in the world, but the same can’t be said of unknown unknowns. We simply do not known what we don’t know. In other words, the problem is not risk. The notion of risk implies that we can compute probability. This is what the mainstream economists assume: we know the odds, so there is a single optimizing solution to each problem. But the real issue is that we do not know the probabilities, because we even do not know how the world works. You see, the probability applies in a casino but not in a real world. You are certainly aware of substantial difference between roulette or weather forecasting, and the scope of new inventions or the prospect of war, elections or the asset prices. As Keynes wrote (at least once we agree with him), “About these matters there is no scientific basis on which to form any calculable probability whatever. We simply do not know.”

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Silver Miners’ Q3’19 Fundamentals

By Adam Hamilton – Re-Blogged From Silver Phoenix

The silver miners are finally enjoying higher prevailing silver prices, a great boon for this sector. Silver surged this past summer after gold’s first new bull-market highs in several years rekindled enthusiasm for precious metals. The long-neglected silver stocks rallied strongly with their metal. Their recently-reported Q3’19 results reveal whether those gains are justified, and how much fundamentals improved on higher silver.

Four times a year publicly-traded companies release treasure troves of valuable information in the form of quarterly reports. Required by the US Securities and Exchange Commission, these 10-Qs and 10-Ks contain the best fundamental data available to traders. They dispel all the sentiment distortions inevitably surrounding prevailing stock-price levels, revealing corporations’ underlying hard fundamental realities.

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Gold Miners’ Profits To Soar

By Adam Hamilton – Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle

The gold miners are likely to report blowout profits in this spinning-up Q3’19 earnings season.  Higher production, stable costs, and much-higher gold prices should combine for some super-impressive results.  That’s going to leave the still-undervalued gold miners much more attractive fundamentally, supporting bigger capital inflows and much-higher stock prices.  Q3 should prove the gold miners’ best quarter in years.

Stock prices are ultimately dependent on underlying corporate earnings.  Over the long term all stock prices gravitate towards some reasonable multiple of their underlying companies’ profits.  Herd greed and fear can force stock prices to disconnect from fundamentals for some time, but eventually they trump sentiment.  So there’s nothing more important for stock-price-appreciation potential than foundational profits.

Most of the major gold miners trade in the US or Canada, and thus are required to report their results quarterly.  The SEC deadline for filing 10-Q quarterly reports is 40 calendar days after quarter-ends, or November 9th for the recently-finished Q3’19.  The major gold miners tend to report in the latter end of that window.  The definitive list of them comes from the leading gold-stock trading vehicle and benchmark.

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Silver Miners’ Q4’18 Fundamentals

By Adam Hamilton – Re-Blogged From Silver Phoenix

The major silver miners have rallied higher on balance in recent months, enjoying a young upleg. That’s a welcome change after they suffered a miserable 2018. Times are tough for silver miners, since silver’s prices have languished near extreme lows relative to gold. That has forced many traditional silver miners to increasingly diversify into gold. The major silver miners’ recently-released Q4’18 results illuminate their struggles.

Four times a year publicly-traded companies release treasure troves of valuable information in the form of quarterly reports. Required by the US Securities and Exchange Commission, these 10-Qs and 10-Ks contain the best fundamental data available to traders. They dispel all the sentiment distortions inevitably surrounding prevailing stock-price levels, revealing corporations’ underlying hard fundamental realities.

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Gold Stocks Gather Steam

By Adam Hamilton, CPA – Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle

Gold stocks’ young upleg is gathering steam, marching steadily to higher lows and higher highs. These bullish technicals are gradually improving sentiment, fueling mounting interest in this contrarian sector. That’s helping the gold stocks regain lost ground relative to gold, the driver of their profits. Fundamentals are growing more favorable as gold itself powers higher. All this portends much-bigger gold-stock gains coming.

Despite a strong rebound upleg in recent months, the gold miners’ stocks are still flying under the radars of most speculators and investors. They aren’t aware the gold stocks are running again, and likely don’t realize how massive gold-stock uplegs can grow. That’s unfortunate, because the biggest gains are won early in young uplegs before they are universally recognized. Buying low early on is the key to multiplying wealth.

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Gold-Stock Upleg Pauses

By Adam Hamilton – Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle

The gold miners’ stocks have slumped in January, tilting sentiment back to bearish.  This sector’s strong December upward momentum was checked by gold’s own upleg stalling out.  Gold investment demand growth slowed on the blistering stock-market rally.  But uplegs always flow and ebb, and this young gold-stock upleg merely paused.  The gold miners’ gains will likely resume soon, rekindling bullish psychology.

Most investors and analysts track the gold-mining sector with its leading ETF, the GDX VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF.  GDX was this sector’s pioneering ETF birthed in May 2006, creating a huge first-mover advantage that is insurmountable.  This week GDX’s net assets of $9.9b were an incredible 56.7x larger than the next-biggest 1x-long major-gold-miners ETF!  GDX dominates this space with little competition.

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Gold Miners’ Q3’18 Fundamentals

By Adam Hamilton – Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle

The major gold miners’ stocks remain mired in universal bearishness, largely left for dead.  They are just wrapping up their third-quarter earnings season, which proved challenging.  Lower gold prices cut deeply into cash flows and profits, and production-growth struggles persisted.  But these elite companies did hold the line on costs, portending soaring earnings as gold recovers.  Their absurdly-cheap stock prices aren’t justified.

Four times a year publicly-traded companies release treasure troves of valuable information in the form of quarterly reports.  Companies trading in the States are required to file 10-Qs with the US Securities and Exchange Commission by 40 calendar days after quarter-ends.  Canadian companies have similar requirements at 45 days.  In other countries with half-year reporting, many companies still partially report quarterly.

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Gold-Stocks Forced Capitulation

By Adam Hamilton – Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle

The gold miners’ stocks suffered a rare capitulation selloff over the past month or so.  Selling cascaded to extremes as stop losses were sequentially triggered, battering this contrarian sector to exceedingly-low levels.  While very challenging psychologically, capitulations are super-bullish.  They rapidly exhaust all near-term selling potential, leaving gold stocks wildly oversold and undervalued which births major new uplegs.

Capitulations are quite rare which makes them inherently unpredictable.  The vast majority of selloffs end normally well before they snowball into capitulation-grade plummets.  But very seldomly heavy selling just continues to intensify rather than abate like usual.  The word capitulation means “the act of surrendering or giving up”.  That’s exactly what happens in these extraordinary selling events, traders stampede for the exits.

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Big US Stocks’ Q4’17 Fundamentals

By Adam Hamilton – Re-Blogged From http://www.Silver-Phoenix500.com

The mega-cap stocks that dominate the US markets have enjoyed an amazing bull run. But February’s first correction in years proved things are changing. With that unnatural low-volatility melt-up behind us, it’s more important than ever to keep leading stocks’ underlying fundamentals in focus. They help investors understand which major American companies are the best buys and when to deploy capital in them.

For some years now, I’ve been doing deep dives into the quarterly financial and operational results in the small contrarian sector of gold and silver miners. While hard and tedious work, this exercise has proven incredibly valuable. With each passing quarter my knowledge of individual companies grows, helping to ferret out miners with superior fundamentals and the greatest upside potential. Traders love the resulting essays.

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New Silver Bull Coming

By Adam Hamilton – Re-Blogged From http://www.Silver-Phoenix500.com

Silver has been dead money over the past year or so, relentlessly grinding sideways to lower.  That weak price action has naturally left this classic alternative investment deeply out of favor.  Silver is extremely undervalued relative to gold, while speculators’ silver-futures positions are extraordinarily bearish.  All this has created the perfect breeding ground to birth a major new silver bull market, which could erupt anytime.

Silver’s price  behavior is unusual, making it a challenging investment psychologically.  Most of the time silver is maddeningly boring, drifting listlessly for months or sometimes years on end.  So the vast majority of investors abandon it and move on, which is exactly what’s happened since late 2016.  There’s so little interest in silver these days that even traditional primary silver miners are actively diversifying into gold!

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Gold Miners’ Q4’17 Fundamentals

By Adam Hamilton – Re-Blogged From http://www.Gold-Eagle.com

The gold miners’ stocks remain deeply out of favor, trading at prices seen when gold was half or even a quarter of current levels. So many traders assume this small contrarian sector must be really struggling fundamentally. But nothing could be farther from the truth! The major gold miners’ recently-released Q4’17 results prove they are thriving. Their languishing stock prices are the result of irrational herd sentiment.

Four times a year publicly-traded companies release treasure troves of valuable information in the form of quarterly reports. Required by securities regulators, these quarterly results are exceedingly important for investors and speculators. They dispel all the sentimental distortions surrounding prevailing stock-price levels, revealing the underlying hard fundamental realities. They serve to re-anchor perceptions.

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Semi Bearish?

By Gary Tanashian – Re-Blogged From http://www.NFTRH.com

Over the last several years, beginning in 2013 I’ve made post titles like ‘Semi Bullish‘ in response to the bullish leading edge economic cycle indicator, the Semiconductor Equipment sector and its implications for broad stocks and the economy. Those implications of economic acceleration were along these lines… Semi Equipment Book-to-Bill (b2b) → Broad Semi → Manufacturing → Employment → Firm Economy. Shortly after the b2b was noted as bullish the SOX index and the S&P 500 broke out to new highs, not to even hint at looking back until the rocky 2015-2016 period.

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Silver Stocks Comatose

By Adam Hamilton – Re-Blogged From http://www.Silver-Phoenix500.com

The silver miners’ stocks have mostly drifted sideways this year, looking vexingly comatose.  Such dull price action repels speculators and investors, so they’ve largely abandoned this lackluster sector.  That weak trader participation has led to silver stocks’ responsiveness to silver price moves decaying.  What can shock silver stocks out of their zombified stupor?  And how soon is such an awakening catalyst likely?

Silver stocks’ flatlined behavior so far in 2017 is surprising and odd.  Silver-stock prices are ultimately driven by silver-mining profits, which are overwhelmingly driven by prevailing silver price levels.  Silver in turn is slaved to gold’s fortunes, the yellow metal is the white metal’s dominant primary driver.  With gold faring quite well this year despite the euphoric record stock markets, silver and its miners’ stocks should be shining.

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Gold Miners’ Q3’17 Preview

By Adam Hamilton – Re-Blogged From http://www.Gold-Eagle.com

With the third quarter’s earnings season now underway, the gold miners will soon join in and report their latest results. No data is more highly anticipated by investors, for good reason. Quarterly reports dispel the dense fogs of herd sentiment that usually obscure gold stocks, revealing their operations’ underlying fundamental realities. Q3’17’s upcoming results are likely to prove quite bullish for this neglected sector.

Four times a year publicly-traded companies release treasure troves of valuable information in the form of quarterly reports. Companies trading in the States are required to file 10-Qs with the US Securities and Exchange Commission by 45 calendar days after quarter-ends. The gold miners generally release their quarterly reports in the latter half of this span. So Q3’17’s will arrive between late October and mid-November.

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Gold Juniors’ Q2’17 Fundamentals

By Adam Hamilton – Re-Blogged From http://www.Gold-Eagle.com

The junior gold miners’ stocks have spent months grinding sideways near lows, sapping confidence and breeding widespread bearishness.  The entire precious-metals sector has been left for dead, eclipsed by the dazzling Trumphoria stock-market rally.  But traders need to keep their eyes on the fundamental ball so herd sentiment doesn’t mislead them.  The juniors recently reported Q2 earnings, and enjoyed strong results.

Four times a year publicly-traded companies release treasure troves of valuable information in the form of quarterly reports.  Companies trading in the States are required to file 10-Qs with the US Securities and Exchange Commission by 45 calendar days after quarter-ends.  Canadian companies have similar requirements.  In other countries with half-year reporting, some companies still partially report quarterly.

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Gold Miners’ Q2’17 Fundamentals

By Adam Hamilton – Re-Blogged From http://www.Gold-Eagle.com

The gold miners’ stocks have spent months adrift, cast off in the long shadow of the Trumphoria stock-market rally. This vexing consolidation has left a wasteland of popular bearishness. But once a quarter earnings season arrives, bright fundamental sunlight dispelling the obscuring sentiment fogs. The major gold miners’ just-reported Q2’17 results prove this sector remains strong fundamentally, and super-undervalued.

Four times a year publicly-traded companies release treasure troves of valuable information in the form of quarterly reports. Companies trading in the States are required to file 10-Qs with the US Securities and Exchange Commission by 45 calendar days after quarter-ends. Canadian companies have similar requirements. In other countries with half-year reporting, some companies still partially report quarterly.

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