Gold Mid-Tiers’ Q1’19 Fundamentals

By Adam Hamilton – Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle

The mid-tier gold miners’ stocks in the sweet spot for price-appreciation potential have been struggling in recent months, grinding lower with gold.  Their strong early-year momentum has been sapped by recent stock-market euphoria.  But gold-mining stocks are more important than ever for prudently diversifying portfolios.  The mid-tiers’ recently-reported Q1’19 results reveal their fundamentals remain sound and bullish.

The wild market action in Q4’18 emphasized why investors shouldn’t overlook gold stocks.  All portfolios need a 10% allocation in gold and its miners’ stocks!  As the flagship S&P 500 broad-market stock index plunged 9.2% in December alone, nearly entering a new bear market, the leading mid-tier gold-stock ETF surged 13.7% higher that month.  That was a warning shot across the bow that these markets are changing.

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Gold-Stock Mega-Mergers Bad

By Adam Hamilton – Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle

The world’s two biggest gold miners both announced mega-mergers over the past 5 months or so.  These huge deals briefly garnered some interest in the usually-forgotten gold-stock sector, and fleeting praise from Wall Street analysts.  But gold-stock mega-mergers are bad news for gold-miner shareholders on all sides.  They reveal the serious struggles of major gold miners, and really retard future upside in their stocks.

For decades the largest gold miners in the world have been Newmont Mining (NEM) and Barrick Gold (ABX).  These behemoths have long dwarfed all their peers in operational scope.  While the gold miners are in the process of reporting Q4’18 results now, their latest complete set remains Q3’18’s.  As after every quarterly earnings season, I analyzed them in depth for the major gold miners of GDX back in mid-November.

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Gold Stocks Gather Steam

By Adam Hamilton, CPA – Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle

Gold stocks’ young upleg is gathering steam, marching steadily to higher lows and higher highs. These bullish technicals are gradually improving sentiment, fueling mounting interest in this contrarian sector. That’s helping the gold stocks regain lost ground relative to gold, the driver of their profits. Fundamentals are growing more favorable as gold itself powers higher. All this portends much-bigger gold-stock gains coming.

Despite a strong rebound upleg in recent months, the gold miners’ stocks are still flying under the radars of most speculators and investors. They aren’t aware the gold stocks are running again, and likely don’t realize how massive gold-stock uplegs can grow. That’s unfortunate, because the biggest gains are won early in young uplegs before they are universally recognized. Buying low early on is the key to multiplying wealth.

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Gold-Stock Upleg Pauses

By Adam Hamilton – Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle

The gold miners’ stocks have slumped in January, tilting sentiment back to bearish.  This sector’s strong December upward momentum was checked by gold’s own upleg stalling out.  Gold investment demand growth slowed on the blistering stock-market rally.  But uplegs always flow and ebb, and this young gold-stock upleg merely paused.  The gold miners’ gains will likely resume soon, rekindling bullish psychology.

Most investors and analysts track the gold-mining sector with its leading ETF, the GDX VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF.  GDX was this sector’s pioneering ETF birthed in May 2006, creating a huge first-mover advantage that is insurmountable.  This week GDX’s net assets of $9.9b were an incredible 56.7x larger than the next-biggest 1x-long major-gold-miners ETF!  GDX dominates this space with little competition.

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GDXJ Upside Bests GDX

By Adam Hamilton – Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle

Gold miners’ exchange-traded funds are surging with gold powering higher.  These mounting gains are naturally fueling growing interest in the leading gold-stock investment vehicles.  Traders looking to deploy capital are wondering which major gold-stock ETF is superior, offering the best balance between upside potential, component fundamentals, and risks.  GDXJ takes the crown, besting its larger big brother GDX.

By my count, there are currently 14 gold miners ETFs trading in US markets.  But that’s not authoritative, as the broader ETF industry is constantly in flux.  These gold-stock ETFs collectively held $17.5b in net assets as of the middle of this week.  And two major ETFs utterly dominated, commanding fully 85.1% of all those gold-stock investments!  They are of course GDX and GDXJ, which dwarf everything else in this sector.

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Gold-Stock Triple Breakout

By Adam Hamilton – Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle

The beleaguered gold stocks are recovering from their late-summer capitulation, enjoying a solid young upleg as investors gradually return.  Their buying has pushed the leading gold-stock ETF near a major triple breakout technically.  That event should really boost capital inflows into this sector, accelerating the rally.  A major gold and gold-stock buying catalyst is likely imminent too, a more-dovish Fed next week.

The gold miners’ stocks have always been a small contrarian sector, a little-watched corner of the stock markets.  But they’ve been even more unpopular than usual in recent months.  That pessimistic sentiment is driven by price action, which has mostly proven poor in 2018.  That’s really evident in the performance of the flagship gold-stock investment vehicle, the GDX VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF which is struggling.

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Gold Miners’ Q3’18 Fundamentals

By Adam Hamilton – Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle

The major gold miners’ stocks remain mired in universal bearishness, largely left for dead.  They are just wrapping up their third-quarter earnings season, which proved challenging.  Lower gold prices cut deeply into cash flows and profits, and production-growth struggles persisted.  But these elite companies did hold the line on costs, portending soaring earnings as gold recovers.  Their absurdly-cheap stock prices aren’t justified.

Four times a year publicly-traded companies release treasure troves of valuable information in the form of quarterly reports.  Companies trading in the States are required to file 10-Qs with the US Securities and Exchange Commission by 40 calendar days after quarter-ends.  Canadian companies have similar requirements at 45 days.  In other countries with half-year reporting, many companies still partially report quarterly.

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