Gold Juniors’ Q4’16 Fundamentals

By Adam Hamilton – Re-Blogged From Zeal

The junior gold stocks corrected hard in recent weeks, setting them up to blast higher on Wednesday’s less-hawkish-than-expected Fed.  That started to dispel some of the serious bearish sentiment that has been mounting in this sector.  The junior gold miners’ fundamentals justify much-higher stock prices, as evidenced in their recently-reported fourth-quarter operating and financial results.  They remain very bullish.

Four times a year publicly-traded companies release treasure troves of valuable information in the form of quarterly reports.  Required by securities regulators, these quarterly results are exceedingly important for investors and speculators.  They banish all the sentimental distortions surrounding prevailing stock-price levels, revealing the underlying hard fundamental realities.  This greatly helps in re-anchoring perceptions.

After spending decades intensely studying and actively trading this contrarian sector, there is no gold-stock data I look forward to more than their quarterly reports.  These offer a true and clear snapshot of what’s really going on, overcoming all the misconceptions bred by the ever-shifting winds of sentiment.  If you have capital deployed in this sector but don’t watch the quarterlies, you’re shooting yourself in the foot.

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Gold Stocks’ Winter Rally

By Adam Hamilton – Re-Blogged From Zeal LLC

The gold miners’ stocks have certainly had a wild ride this year.  After initially skyrocketing out of deep secular lows into a mighty new bull market, they recently suffered a massive correction climaxing in an extreme plummet.  This coincided with gold stocks’ major seasonal low in October.  That heralds their strongest seasonal rally of the year heading into and through winter, a very bullish omen for coming months.

Gold-stock performance is highly seasonal, which certainly sounds odd.  The gold miners produce and sell their metal at relatively-constant rates year-round, so the temporal journey through calendar months should be irrelevant.  Based on these miners’ revenues, there’s no reason investors should favor them more at certain times of the year than others.  Yet history proves that’s exactly what happens in this sector.

Seasonality is the tendency for prices to exhibit recurring patterns at certain times during the calendar year.  While seasonality doesn’t drive price action, it quantifies annually-repeating behavior driven by sentiment, technicals, and fundamentals.  We humans are creatures of habit and herd, which naturally colors our trading decisions.  The calendar year’s passage affects the timing and intensity of buying and selling.

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Gold Stocks Screaming Buy

By Adam Hamilton – Re-Blogged From http://www.Zealllc.com

The gold miners’ stocks are suffering from universal and overwhelming bearishness today, with nearly everyone expecting further selling.  That’s the natural reaction following this sector’s recent massive correction, which climaxed in one of its biggest daily plummets ever witnessed.  But within bull markets, there’s no better time to buy aggressively than deep in a major selloff that’s riddled with great doubt and fear.

The core mission of speculation and investment is so simple even children can easily grasp it, buy low sell high.  The great challenges arise not from understanding, but execution.  Actually buying low then selling high in real markets is exceedingly unnatural and uncomfortable.  It requires traders to overcome their own greed and fear to do the exact opposite of everything their own instincts are screaming to do.

The only times speculators and investors want to buy aggressively is when it feels great to do so.  That only happens late in powerful rallies, when everyone can clearly see how strong a sector’s performance has been.  Traders then commit one of trading’s cardinal sins, extrapolating recent performance out into the indefinite future.  They assume a red-hot sector will keep on rising, and eagerly rush to buy high after a rally.

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Gold Stocks’ Major Breakout

By Adam Hamilton – Re-Blogged From http://www.Gold-Eagle.com

The left-for-dead gold stocks have rallied dramatically this past week, surging to a major breakout.  This pivotal technical event reveals the hyper-bearish psychology plaguing this sector in recent months is dissipating, paving the way for investment capital to return.  And given the fundamentally-absurd price levels in this battered sector, this new gold-stock buying is likely just the initial vanguard of a massive new upleg.

Even among contrarians, the overwhelming consensus view is that gold miners’ stocks are doomed to grind lower indefinitely.  Pretty much everyone even aware of this obscure sector totally despises it, the inevitable result of recent years’ dismal price action.  The flagship gold-stock index, the NYSE Arca Gold BUGS Index better known by its symbol HUI, certainly reflects the unbelievable misery in this business.

Over 4.0 years between September 2011 and September 2015, the HUI plunged 83.5% in a bear market of apocalyptic magnitude!  This incredibly-large bear excelled in annihilating all interest in this sector.  Almost everyone capitulated, scared away by the brutal mauling.  Adding insult to injury, the benchmark S&P 500 general-stock-market index soared 63.5% over this same span.  Gold stocks have been dreadful.

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