Gold-Stock Upleg Healthy

By Adam Hamilton – Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle

The gold miners’ stocks just rolled over into a correction, raising concerns about the staying power of their massive post-panic upleg.  These higher prevailing gold prices have driven very-strong fundamentals at the gold miners.  But they are entering the seasonally-weak summer doldrums.  And current sentiment and technicals play major roles in governing when uplegs remain healthy or ready to give up their ghosts.

The GDX VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF remains the leading and dominant benchmark for this small contrarian sector.  Its $14.3b in net assets this week were a colossal 33.2x bigger than those of its next-largest 1x-long major-gold-miners-ETF competitor!  GDX’s only real rival is its little-brother GDXJ mid-tier gold-miners ETF, which is only about one-third of GDX’s size.  The GDX gold stocks have sure had a wild ride.

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Gold Mid-Tiers’ Q1’20 Fundamentals

By Adam Hamilton – Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle

The mid-tier gold miners in the sweet spot for stock-price upside potential have enjoyed a massive run since mid-March’s stock-panic lows.  They’ve already more than doubled in the couple months since!  Their just-released Q1’20 operational and financial results reveal whether these huge gains are righteous fundamentally, whether this uptrend is likely to persist, and how COVID-19 shutdowns are affecting gold miners.

Interestingly the leading mid-tier gold-stock ETF is the famous GDXJ VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF.  Despite its misleading name, GDXJ is overwhelmingly dominated by mid-tier gold miners.  They produce 300k to 1m ounces of gold annually, between the smaller juniors and larger majors.  The mid-tiers offer an excellent mix of sizable diversified production, output-growth potential, and smaller market caps.

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Gold Stocks Crash, V-Bounce!

By Adam Hamilton – Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle

Gold miners’ stocks have endured epic volatility in this past month, literally crashing before blasting back higher in a violent V-bounce.  That preceding wicked capitulation flush savagely forced the weak hands out, paving the way for gold stocks’ next major upleg.  The resulting fierce rebound signals it is already underway, with plenty of speculators and investors now chasing the huge gains this sector is famous for.

Perspective is essential and exceedingly-valuable for traders.  If you don’t know where we’ve been and how we got here, you can’t figure out where we’re likely going.  Context is necessary to frame this past month’s extraordinary gold-stock action, and to successfully game where this sector should be heading.  Extreme volatility creates extreme opportunities, neither of which come around very often.  Carpe diem!

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Gold Mid-Tiers’ Q4’19 Fundamentals

By Adam Hamilton – Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle

The mid-tier gold miners’ stocks have been annihilated with COVID-19 fears infecting traders’ sentiment. They crashed with gold getting hammered on extreme gold-futures selling! With blood in the streets, the buy-low opportunities are phenomenal. The fundamentally-superior mid-tier gold miners have epic upside potential during gold’s next upleg. This key sector just reported outstanding Q4’19 results on higher gold.

The sheer carnage in gold-stock-land has been jaw-dropping! In late February, the gold-stock sector per its leading benchmark GDX VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF edged up to a 3.5-year high slightly above early September’s. That was fueled by gold’s $1600 breakout surge on COVID-19 fears. Yet as I warned in an essay the trading day before GDX’s peak, gold’s surge was peculiar and precarious lacking normal drivers.

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Gold Mid-Tiers’ Q3’19 Fundamentals

By Adam Hamilton – Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle

The mid-tier gold miners just reported their results for a phenomenal gold quarter.  In Q3’19 this metal surged after its first bull-market breakout in years, driving much-higher prevailing prices.  That should’ve led to soaring profits for these mid-tiers in the sweet spot for stock-price upside potential.  Last quarter’s results are the most important this sector has seen in a long time, a key fundamental test for gold miners.

Four times a year publicly-traded companies release treasure troves of valuable information in the form of quarterly reports.  Required by the US Securities and Exchange Commission, these 10-Qs and 10-Ks contain the best fundamental data available to traders.  They dispel all the sentiment distortions inevitably surrounding prevailing stock-price levels, revealing corporations’ underlying hard fundamental realities.

The global nature of the gold-mining industry complicates efforts to gather this important data.  Many mid-tier gold miners trade in Australia, Canada, Mexico, the United Kingdom, and other countries with quite-different reporting requirements.  These include half-year reporting rather than quarterly, long 90-day filing deadlines after fiscal year-ends, and very-dissimilar presentations of operating and financial results.

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Gold Mid-Tiers’ Q1’19 Fundamentals

By Adam Hamilton – Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle

The mid-tier gold miners’ stocks in the sweet spot for price-appreciation potential have been struggling in recent months, grinding lower with gold.  Their strong early-year momentum has been sapped by recent stock-market euphoria.  But gold-mining stocks are more important than ever for prudently diversifying portfolios.  The mid-tiers’ recently-reported Q1’19 results reveal their fundamentals remain sound and bullish.

The wild market action in Q4’18 emphasized why investors shouldn’t overlook gold stocks.  All portfolios need a 10% allocation in gold and its miners’ stocks!  As the flagship S&P 500 broad-market stock index plunged 9.2% in December alone, nearly entering a new bear market, the leading mid-tier gold-stock ETF surged 13.7% higher that month.  That was a warning shot across the bow that these markets are changing.

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Gold-Stock Mega-Mergers Bad

By Adam Hamilton – Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle

The world’s two biggest gold miners both announced mega-mergers over the past 5 months or so.  These huge deals briefly garnered some interest in the usually-forgotten gold-stock sector, and fleeting praise from Wall Street analysts.  But gold-stock mega-mergers are bad news for gold-miner shareholders on all sides.  They reveal the serious struggles of major gold miners, and really retard future upside in their stocks.

For decades the largest gold miners in the world have been Newmont Mining (NEM) and Barrick Gold (ABX).  These behemoths have long dwarfed all their peers in operational scope.  While the gold miners are in the process of reporting Q4’18 results now, their latest complete set remains Q3’18’s.  As after every quarterly earnings season, I analyzed them in depth for the major gold miners of GDX back in mid-November.

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Gold-Stock Upleg Pauses

By Adam Hamilton – Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle

The gold miners’ stocks have slumped in January, tilting sentiment back to bearish.  This sector’s strong December upward momentum was checked by gold’s own upleg stalling out.  Gold investment demand growth slowed on the blistering stock-market rally.  But uplegs always flow and ebb, and this young gold-stock upleg merely paused.  The gold miners’ gains will likely resume soon, rekindling bullish psychology.

Most investors and analysts track the gold-mining sector with its leading ETF, the GDX VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF.  GDX was this sector’s pioneering ETF birthed in May 2006, creating a huge first-mover advantage that is insurmountable.  This week GDX’s net assets of $9.9b were an incredible 56.7x larger than the next-biggest 1x-long major-gold-miners ETF!  GDX dominates this space with little competition.

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GDXJ Upside Bests GDX

By Adam Hamilton – Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle

Gold miners’ exchange-traded funds are surging with gold powering higher.  These mounting gains are naturally fueling growing interest in the leading gold-stock investment vehicles.  Traders looking to deploy capital are wondering which major gold-stock ETF is superior, offering the best balance between upside potential, component fundamentals, and risks.  GDXJ takes the crown, besting its larger big brother GDX.

By my count, there are currently 14 gold miners ETFs trading in US markets.  But that’s not authoritative, as the broader ETF industry is constantly in flux.  These gold-stock ETFs collectively held $17.5b in net assets as of the middle of this week.  And two major ETFs utterly dominated, commanding fully 85.1% of all those gold-stock investments!  They are of course GDX and GDXJ, which dwarf everything else in this sector.

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Major Gold-Stock Breakouts

By Adam Hamilton – Re-Blogged From http://www.Gold-Eagle.com

The gold stocks are off to the races again, with big gains mounting. They just staged major breakouts, shattering a vexing consolidation that had trapped them for an entire year. Such momentum early in gold’s strong season is a very-bullish portent. As higher prices improve both technicals and sentiment, buying begets more buying. With gold-stock prices still quite low in secular terms, their upside remains huge.

Gold stocks are a small contrarian sector without a wide following. So their latest surge has surprised many investors and speculators. But it shouldn’t have. In the markets knowledge is profits, so staying informed about gold stocks’ fundamentals, technicals, and sentiment is crucial. The traders who did their homework this summer and bought in low when few others were willing are now sitting on fat unrealized gains.

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Gold Juniors’ Q2’17 Fundamentals

By Adam Hamilton – Re-Blogged From http://www.Gold-Eagle.com

The junior gold miners’ stocks have spent months grinding sideways near lows, sapping confidence and breeding widespread bearishness.  The entire precious-metals sector has been left for dead, eclipsed by the dazzling Trumphoria stock-market rally.  But traders need to keep their eyes on the fundamental ball so herd sentiment doesn’t mislead them.  The juniors recently reported Q2 earnings, and enjoyed strong results.

Four times a year publicly-traded companies release treasure troves of valuable information in the form of quarterly reports.  Companies trading in the States are required to file 10-Qs with the US Securities and Exchange Commission by 45 calendar days after quarter-ends.  Canadian companies have similar requirements.  In other countries with half-year reporting, some companies still partially report quarterly.

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Gold Juniors’ Q1’17 Fundamentals

By Adam Hamilton – Re-Blogged From http://www.Gold-Eagle.com

The junior gold miners’ stocks suffered a serious thrashing between mid-April and early May.  Relentless heavy selling blasted many back down near deep mid-December lows, leaving sentiment in tatters.  But traders distracted by weak technicals need to keep their eyes on the fundamental ball.  The gold juniors just finished their Q1 earnings season, which was solid.  Their low stock prices are disconnected from reality.

Four times a year publicly-traded companies release treasure troves of valuable information in the form of quarterly reports.  These are generally due by 45 days after quarter-ends in the US and Canada.  They offer true and clear snapshots of what’s really going on operationally, shattering the misconceptions bred by the ever-shifting winds of sentiment.  There’s no junior-gold-miner data that is more highly anticipated.

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Gold Juniors’ Q4’16 Fundamentals

By Adam Hamilton – Re-Blogged From Zeal

The junior gold stocks corrected hard in recent weeks, setting them up to blast higher on Wednesday’s less-hawkish-than-expected Fed.  That started to dispel some of the serious bearish sentiment that has been mounting in this sector.  The junior gold miners’ fundamentals justify much-higher stock prices, as evidenced in their recently-reported fourth-quarter operating and financial results.  They remain very bullish.

Four times a year publicly-traded companies release treasure troves of valuable information in the form of quarterly reports.  Required by securities regulators, these quarterly results are exceedingly important for investors and speculators.  They banish all the sentimental distortions surrounding prevailing stock-price levels, revealing the underlying hard fundamental realities.  This greatly helps in re-anchoring perceptions.

After spending decades intensely studying and actively trading this contrarian sector, there is no gold-stock data I look forward to more than their quarterly reports.  These offer a true and clear snapshot of what’s really going on, overcoming all the misconceptions bred by the ever-shifting winds of sentiment.  If you have capital deployed in this sector but don’t watch the quarterlies, you’re shooting yourself in the foot.

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Gold Stocks’ Winter Rally

By Adam Hamilton – Re-Blogged From Zeal LLC

The gold miners’ stocks have certainly had a wild ride this year.  After initially skyrocketing out of deep secular lows into a mighty new bull market, they recently suffered a massive correction climaxing in an extreme plummet.  This coincided with gold stocks’ major seasonal low in October.  That heralds their strongest seasonal rally of the year heading into and through winter, a very bullish omen for coming months.

Gold-stock performance is highly seasonal, which certainly sounds odd.  The gold miners produce and sell their metal at relatively-constant rates year-round, so the temporal journey through calendar months should be irrelevant.  Based on these miners’ revenues, there’s no reason investors should favor them more at certain times of the year than others.  Yet history proves that’s exactly what happens in this sector.

Seasonality is the tendency for prices to exhibit recurring patterns at certain times during the calendar year.  While seasonality doesn’t drive price action, it quantifies annually-repeating behavior driven by sentiment, technicals, and fundamentals.  We humans are creatures of habit and herd, which naturally colors our trading decisions.  The calendar year’s passage affects the timing and intensity of buying and selling.

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Gold Stocks Screaming Buy

By Adam Hamilton – Re-Blogged From http://www.Zealllc.com

The gold miners’ stocks are suffering from universal and overwhelming bearishness today, with nearly everyone expecting further selling.  That’s the natural reaction following this sector’s recent massive correction, which climaxed in one of its biggest daily plummets ever witnessed.  But within bull markets, there’s no better time to buy aggressively than deep in a major selloff that’s riddled with great doubt and fear.

The core mission of speculation and investment is so simple even children can easily grasp it, buy low sell high.  The great challenges arise not from understanding, but execution.  Actually buying low then selling high in real markets is exceedingly unnatural and uncomfortable.  It requires traders to overcome their own greed and fear to do the exact opposite of everything their own instincts are screaming to do.

The only times speculators and investors want to buy aggressively is when it feels great to do so.  That only happens late in powerful rallies, when everyone can clearly see how strong a sector’s performance has been.  Traders then commit one of trading’s cardinal sins, extrapolating recent performance out into the indefinite future.  They assume a red-hot sector will keep on rising, and eagerly rush to buy high after a rally.

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Gold Stocks’ Major Breakout

By Adam Hamilton – Re-Blogged From http://www.Gold-Eagle.com

The left-for-dead gold stocks have rallied dramatically this past week, surging to a major breakout.  This pivotal technical event reveals the hyper-bearish psychology plaguing this sector in recent months is dissipating, paving the way for investment capital to return.  And given the fundamentally-absurd price levels in this battered sector, this new gold-stock buying is likely just the initial vanguard of a massive new upleg.

Even among contrarians, the overwhelming consensus view is that gold miners’ stocks are doomed to grind lower indefinitely.  Pretty much everyone even aware of this obscure sector totally despises it, the inevitable result of recent years’ dismal price action.  The flagship gold-stock index, the NYSE Arca Gold BUGS Index better known by its symbol HUI, certainly reflects the unbelievable misery in this business.

Over 4.0 years between September 2011 and September 2015, the HUI plunged 83.5% in a bear market of apocalyptic magnitude!  This incredibly-large bear excelled in annihilating all interest in this sector.  Almost everyone capitulated, scared away by the brutal mauling.  Adding insult to injury, the benchmark S&P 500 general-stock-market index soared 63.5% over this same span.  Gold stocks have been dreadful.

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