There is no Climate Emergency !

By edmhdotme – Re-Blogged From WUWT

Screenshot 2019-12-12 at 09.43.19.png

What if there is no Catastrophic Risk from Man-made Global Warming ?

What if Man-made CO2 emissions are not the “Climate Control Knob” ?

What if Man-made CO2 emissions really are a non-problem ?

But what if there is a real Global Cooling Catastrophe in the offing ?

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EarthDay at 50: None Of The Eco-Doomsday Predictions Have Come True

By Ron Stein – Re-Blogged From WUWT

From predicting ecological collapse and the end of civilization to warnings that the world is running out of oil, all environmental doomsday predictions of the first Earth Day in 1970 have turned out to be flat out wrong.

More than three decades before Greta Thunberg was born — the Swedish environmental activist on climate change — more than 20 million Americans participated in the first Earth Day on April 22, 1970.

We now look back at quotes from Earth Day, Then and Now,” by Ronald Bailey of the spectacularly wrong apocalyptic predictions from Earth Day 1970.

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Climate Change – Ebb and Flow of the Tide – Part 3 of 3

By Kelvin Kemm – Re-Blogged From WUWT

Dr Kemm’s complete essay containing all three parts may be found here.

The Pause Century

40. There has been essentially no global warming during the 21st Century. This reality has been called ‘The Pause’ by some, who claim that the real rise in temperature is actually going on, but that for some unexplained reason, has paused for a while.

There is debate about the ‘Pause,’ with some saying that there were gaps in data; the variations are too small to be statistically significant; etc. If this is so, how come climate change enthusiasts have been so utterly certain of their position and their figures for the past 20 years plus.

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25 for 25

By David Archibald – Re-Blogged From WUWT

Back on March 7, 2006, the National Science Foundation issued a press release predicting that the amplitude of Solar Cycle 24 would be “30 to 50 percent stronger” than Solar Cycle 23. Solar Cycle 23 had a smoothed maximum amplitude of 180.3. The press release described the forecast as “unprecedented”. Perhaps it was as in unprecedentedly wrong. Solar Cycle 24 had a smoothed maximum amplitude of 116.4 in April 2014, which made it 35% weaker than Solar Cycle 23.

NASA has recycled some of the language from that 2006 press release in this release on NASA researcher Irina Kitiashvili’s forecast of Solar Cycle 25 amplitude which includes this line:

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The Real Climate Crisis Is Not Global Warming, It Is Cooling

By Allan MacRae and Joseph D’Aleo – Re-Blogged From WUWT

Introduction – Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global Warming – A Failed Hypothesis

The Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global Warming (“CAGW”, aka “Global Warming”, “Climate Change”, “Climate Crisis”, “Climate Emergency”) scare is a failed hypothesis and the greatest scientific fraud in history. Global warming alarmism has been promoted by political extremists and believed in by their gullible acolytes for decades, even though there is no credible evidence that catastrophic global warming exists in reality, and ample evidence that the CAGW hypothesis has been falsified.

The failed CAGW hypothesis assumes that increasing atmospheric CO2 from fossil fuel combustion drives dangerous runaway global warming. The alleged evidence for this fraud is climate computer models that greatly over-predict current observed warming, typically by 300 to 500%. These climate models deliberately employ excessively high assumed values of climate sensitivity to CO2, and are designed to create false alarm.

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The Next Great Extinction Event Will Not Be Global Warming – It Will Be Global Cooling

By Allan M. R. MacRae – Re-Blogged From WUWT

CATASTROPHIC GLOBAL WARMING IS A FALSE CRISIS – THE NEXT GREAT EXTINCTION WILL BE GLOBAL COOLING

Forget all those falsehoods about scary global warming, deceptions contrived by wolves to stampede the sheep. The next great extinction event will not be global warming, it will be global cooling. Future extinction events are preponderantly cold: a glacial period, medium-size asteroid strike or supervolcano. Humanity barely survived the last glacial period that ended only 11,500 years ago, the blink-of–an-eye in geologic time.

Cold, not heat, is by far the greater killer of humanity. Today, cool and cold weather kills about 20 times as many people as warm and hot weather. Excess Winter Deaths, defined as more deaths in the four winter months than equivalent non-winter months, total over two million souls per year, in both cold and warm climates. Earth is colder-than-optimum for humanity, and currently-observed moderate global warming increases life spans.

“Cold Weather Kills 20 Times As Many People As Hot Weather”

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Record Cold Cripples Food Crops: Future Food Security at Risk

By Vijay Jayaraj – Re-Blogged From WUWT

Are we putting ourselves at risk by not weighing the risks of cold weather appropriately? And have we, out of our negligence, rendered the agricultural sector susceptible to disaster in the event of an unexpected cooling?

After an unusually cold spring and summer this year hampered crop growth across the Northern Hemisphere, costing farmers millions of dollars, the answer seems to be yes.

Most people understand that food crops are vulnerable to abnormal weather. However, fewer people understand that that crops are more sensitive to cold than to hot weather.

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Experts Predict a Long, Deep Solar Minimum

If you like solar minimum, good news: It could last for years. That was one of the predictions issued last week by an international panel of experts who gathered at NOAA’s annual Space Weather Workshop to forecast the next solar cycle. If the panel is correct, already-low sunspot counts will reach a nadir sometime between July 2019 and Sept 2020, followed by a slow recovery toward a new Solar Maximum in 2023-2026.

“We expect Solar Cycle 25 will be very similar to Cycle 24: another fairly weak maximum, preceded by a long, deep minimum,” says panel co-chair Lisa Upton, a solar physicist with Space Systems Research Corp.

SolarCycle25b

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Climate is Not the Only Limit to Agriculture

By Dr. Tim Ball (Adaptation of article in The Landowner) – Re-Blogged From WUWT

“Agriculture… is the first in utility, and ought to be the first in respect.” Thomas Jefferson

“There are no farms in the cities, but there are no cities without farms.” Tim Ball

There are marked differences between the atmosphere and nature of the environment between the city and the countryside. Unfortunately, because they are unknown or ignored by most academics, bureaucrats, and politicians, they threaten the very basis of society through bad policy. The disconnect between urban and rural extends to almost everything about living in the real world. As people moved to cities, they quickly forgot about the land and nature. Their views, perceptions, and concerns changed. For example, I listen to the weather forecast, and it editorializes about ‘good weather.’ They then predict hot and sunny days to the delight of the urbanite, when the farmers need rain. I remember one summer that urban dwellers thought was terrible, but the farm community thoroughly enjoyed it. Almost like clockwork it was sunny all week and rained every weekend. It became an urban joke. “What day is it after two days of rain – Monday. What do you call it is if it rains on Monday – a long weekend.”

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Of Water And Albedo

By Willis Eschenbach – Re-Blogged From WUWT

As usual, there is more to learn in the CERES satellite dataset. I got to thinking of the idea put forth by Lacis 2010. He announced model results claiming that if the only modeled greenhouse gas in the modeled atmosphere were modeled water, the model world would basically evolve to a modeled ice over condition at a modeled -20°C (-4°F). Here is his money graph, showing the evolution of various modeled climate measurements in the first fifty modeled years after removing all modeled GHGs except for modeled water from the modeled atmosphere. See his paper for details.

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Carbon Fuels Conquered Famine – But Green Policies Are Inviting It Again

by Viv Forbes – Re-Blogged From http://www.WattsUpWithThat.com

The Long War on Famine


Famine has haunted humans for most of their history.

In the days of the Pharaohs, whenever the Nile River failed to flood, Egypt starved. Joseph was called in and he organised stockpiling of grain for famine relief.

Even mighty Rome suffered famines – in 436 BC thousands of starving people threw themselves into the Tiber.

The cold Middle Ages in Europe were haunted by famines. In the 11th and 12th century, famines averaged one in 14 years. Even in England there were 22 recorded famines in the 13th century. In 1235, 20,000 people died in London and people ate horse flesh, bark and grass. There were great famines in India, Bengal, France, China and Russia.

Victims of the Great Famine of 1876–78 in India (British Royal Photography Services)

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Don’t Tell Anyone, But We Just Had Two Years Of Record-Breaking Global Cooling

Editorial in Investors Business Daily

Inconvenient Science: NASA data show that global temperatures dropped sharply over the past two years. Not that you’d know it, since that wasn’t deemed news. Does that make NASA a global warming denier?

Writing in Real Clear Markets, Aaron Brown looked at the official NASA global temperature data and noticed something surprising. From February 2016 to February 2018, “global average temperatures dropped by 0.56 degrees Celsius.” That, he notes, is the biggest two-year drop in the past century.

“The 2016-2018 Big Chill,” he writes, “was composed of two Little Chills, the biggest five month drop ever (February to June 2016) and the fourth biggest (February to June 2017). A similar event from February to June 2018 would bring global average temperatures below the 1980s average.

Isn’t this just the sort of man-bites-dog story that the mainstream media always says is newsworthy?

In this case, it didn’t warrant any news coverage.

In fact, in the three weeks since Real Clear Markets ran Brown’s story, no other news outlet picked up on it. They did, however, find time to report on such things as tourism’s impact on climate change, how global warming will generate more hurricanes this year, and threaten fish habitats, and make islands uninhabitable. They wrote about a UN official saying that “our window of time for addressing climate change is closing very quickly.”

Reporters even found time to cover a group that says they want to carve President Trump’s face into a glacier to prove climate change “is happening.”

In other words, the mainstream news covered stories that repeated what climate change advocates have been saying ad nauseam for decades.

That’s not to say that a two-year stretch of cooling means that global warming is a hoax. Two years out of hundreds or thousands doesn’t necessarily mean anything. And there could be a reasonable explanation. But the drop in temperatures at least merits a “Hey, what’s going on here?” story.

What’s more, journalists are perfectly willing to jump on any individual weather anomaly — or even a picture of a starving polar bear — as proof of global warming. (We haven’t seen any stories pinning Hawaii’s recent volcanic activity on global warming yet, but won’t be surprised if someone tries to make the connection.)

We’ve noted this refusal to cover inconvenient scientific findings many times in this space over the years.

Hiding The Evidence

There was the study published in the American Meteorological Society’s Journal of Climate showing that climate models exaggerate global warming from CO2 emissions by as much as 45%. It was ignored.

Then there was the study in the journal Nature Geoscience that found that climate models were faulty, and that, as one of the authors put it, “We haven’t seen that rapid acceleration in warming after 2000 that we see in the models.”

Nor did the press see fit to report on findings from the University of Alabama-Huntsville showing that the Earth’s atmosphere appears to be less sensitive to changing CO2 levels than previously assumed.

How about the fact that the U.S. has cut CO2 emissions over the past 13 years faster than any other industrialized nation? Or that polar bear populations are increasing? Or that we haven’t seen any increase in violent weather in decades?

Crickets.

Reporters no doubt worry that covering such findings will only embolden “deniers” and undermine support for immediate, drastic action.

But if fears of catastrophic climate change are warranted — which we seriously doubt — ignoring things like the rapid cooling in the past two years carries an even bigger risk.

Suppose, Brown writes, the two-year cooling trend continues. “At some point the news will leak out that all global warming since 1980 has been wiped out in two and a half years, and that record-setting events went unreported.”

He goes on: “Some people could go from uncritical acceptance of steadily rising temperatures to uncritical refusal to accept any warming at all.”

Brown is right. News outlets should decide what gets covered based on its news value, not on whether it pushes an agenda. Otherwise, they’re doing the public a disservice and putting their own already shaky credibility at greater risk.

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Approaching ‘Grand Solar Minimum’ Could Cause Global Cooling

By Anthony Watts – Re-Blogged From http://www.WattsUpWithThat.com

There’s a lot of evidence mounting that solar cycle 25 will usher in a new grand solar minimum. Since about October 2005, when the sun’s magnetic activity went into a sharp fall, solar activity has been markedly lower, with solar cycle 24 being the lowest in over 100 years.

Interplanetary magnetic field – Image from NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center

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The 1970s Global Cooling Scare

By Bernie Lewin – Re-Blogged From http://www.WattsUpWithThat.com

This is the second post drawing on themes raised in the book Searching for the Catastrophe Signal. See a previous post on WUWT here.

Forty-five years ago today, two geologists penned a letter to the president of the United States warning that the rocky decent into the next ice age might have already begun.

Letter from Kukla and Matthews to the President of the United States, 3 December, 1972TUCSON, July 31 (UPI) — Scientists confirmed Thursday that water, considered an essential building block of life, does indeed exist on the planet Mars.An analysis of a soil sample collected by the Phoenix lander detected traces of water, which exists as ice just below the red soil on the Martian surface.

“We’ve seen evidence for this water ice before in observations by the Mars Odyssey orbiter and in disappearing chunks observed by Phoenix last month,” scientist William Boynton said in a written statement released by NASA and the Jet Propulsion Lab, “but this is the first time Martian water has been touched and tasted.”

Boynton is lead scientist for the Thermal and Evolved-Gas Analyzer team based at the University of Arizona.

Details of the composition of the water were not immediately released. The sample came from a 2-inch deep trench carefully carved by the lander’s robotic arm.

The presence of water is one of more dramatic discoveries made by the Phoenix since it touched down on Mars near the pole May 24. NASA announced it had secured funding to extend the Phoenix mission through Sept. 30.

More here: http://phoenix.lpl.arizona.edu/

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How Google and MSM Use “Fact Checkers” to Flood Us with Fake Claims

By Leo Goldstein – Re-Blogged From http://www.WattsUpWithThat.com

The Left implemented a novel technique of the Big Lie that I will call a Flooding Fake here.  This technique was especially widely used by climate alarmism.  This is what it looks like:

  1. An important figure or organization on the Left is caught doing something wrong, saying something outrageous, or blatantly lying.
  2. The Left injects into public discourse an absolutely fake, but believable, account of this action and immediately “debunks” this account.
  3. The fake narrative is accepted by the public as truth because the public knows that something similar has happened.  The immediate debunking is rejected as a cover-up attempt.
  4. Later, when people accuse the original wrongdoer they use elements of the fake narrative.  This is when “fact checkers” jump on them.  Fake news networks accuse honest statesmen and commentators of spreading fake news.  The liberals’ conviction that the conservatives are stupid and uninformed gets deeper.  Google buries honest pieces far from public sight.  Facebook tries to prevent their sharing.  Leftist politicians cry that they lost elections because of fake news.

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New Study By German Physicists Concludes We Can Expect Climate Cooling For Next 50 Years!

By – Re-Blogged From No Tricks Zone

German physicists: “CO2 plays only minor role for global climate”

In a just published study in The Open Atmospheric Science Journal here, German scientists Horst-Joachim Lüdecke and Carl-Otto Weiss have used a large number of temperature proxies worldwide to construct a global temperature mean over the last 2000 years, dubbed G7, in order to find out more about the sun’s role on climate change.

Their results drop a huge surprise on the laps of scientists who have long believed the earth is warming due to human-emitted CO2.

The analysis by the German scientists shows the strongest climate cycle components as 1000, 460, and 190-year periods. The G7 global temperature extrema coincide with the Roman, Medieval, and present optima, as well as the well-known minimum of AD 1450 during the Little Ice Age.

Correlation 0.84

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Solar Physicist Sees Global Cooling Ahead

Via the GWPF – Re-Blogged From http://www.WattsUpWithThat.com

Recent research by Professor Valentina Zharkova (Northumbria University) and colleagues has shed new light on the inner workings of the Sun. If correct, this new discovery means that future solar cycles and variations in the Sun’s activity can be predicted more accurately.

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‘Boy Who Cried Wolf’ Syndrome

By Rod Martin, Jr. – Re-Blogged From http://www.WattsUpWithThat.com

Climate Scares—The New Fable

climate-boogeyman

Climate scares are like the old Greek fable. Most of us learned about Aesop’s fables long ago, likely in grade school. But just in case you don’t know the story of the boy who cried “wolf,” here’s a very short synopsis.

A boy was given the responsibility to guard the town’s flock of sheep. Boring work. So boring in fact, that the boy was motivated to stir up some excitement by yelling, “Wolf!” You see, he knew the townspeople would come running to help protect their flock from the ravenous predator. No wolf—merely a shepherd boy who could not contain his laughter at the townspeople’s gullibility. After a few times of being tricked, the townspeople started to turn a deaf ear. The boy couldn’t be trusted. His warnings were hollow. When the wolf did show up, sheep died.

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Aerosols Strengthen Storm Clouds

From the UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS AT AUSTIN – Re-Blogged From http://www.WattsUpWithThat.com

An abundance of aerosol particles in the atmosphere can increase the lifespans of large storm clouds by delaying rainfall, making the clouds grow larger and live longer, and producing more extreme storms when the rain finally does come, according to new research from The University of Texas at Austin.

storm-cloud

New research from the University of Texas at Austin shows that aerosols create larger storm clouds capable of producing more rain. CREDIT Brian Khoury

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Climate and Human Civilization Over the Last 18,000 Years

By Andy May – Re-Blogged From http://www.WattsUpWithThat.com

This is an updated timeline of climatic events and human history for the last 18,000 years. The original timeline was posted in 2013. The updated full size (Ansi E size or 34×44 inches) Adobe Reader version 8 PDF can be downloaded here or by clicking on Figure 1. It prints pretty well on 11×17 inch paper and very well on 17×22 inch paper or larger. To see the timeline in full resolution or to print it, you must download it. It is not copyrighted, but please acknowledge the author if you use it.

climate-human-civilization

Figure 1 -click for a much larger, printable poster (PDF)

References to the images and data are given in this essay as hyperlinks. I’ve done my best to verify the accuracy of the content by checking multiple sources. When references had different dates for the same event, I chose the most commonly cited date or the most prestigious source. All dates (except some in the modern era) are given as “BP” or before the year 2000 for simplicity, using 1950 (the radiocarbon zero) was too cumbersome.

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Greenpeace Founder Delivers Powerful Annual Lecture, Praises Carbon Dioxide

By Dr. Patrick Moore: Should We Celebrate Carbon Dioxide?

2015 Annual GWPF Lecture – Re-Blogged From http://www.WattsUpWithThat.com

Thank you for the opportunity to set out my views on climate change. As I have stated publicly on many occasions, there is no definitive scientific proof, through real-world observation, that carbon dioxide is responsible for any of the slight warming of the global climate that has occurred during the past 300 years, since the peak of the Little Ice Age. If there were such a proof through testing and replication it would have been written down for all to see.

The contention that human emissions are now the dominant influence on climate is simply a hypothesis, rather than a universally accepted scientific theory. It is therefore correct, indeed verging on compulsory in the scientific tradition, to be skeptical of those who express certainty that “the science is settled” and “the debate is over”.

But there is certainty beyond any doubt that CO2 is the building block for all life on Earth and that without its presence in the global atmosphere at a sufficient concentration this would be a dead planet. Yet today our children and our publics are taught that CO2 is a toxic pollutant that will destroy life and bring civilization to its knees. Tonight I hope to turn this dangerous human-caused propaganda on its head. Tonight I will demonstrate that human emissions of CO2 have already saved life on our planet from a very untimely end. That in the absence of our emitting some of the carbon back into the atmosphere from whence it came in the first place, most or perhaps all life on Earth would begin to die less than two million years from today.

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Weekly Climate and Energy News Roundup #190

The Week That Was: August 1, 2015 – Brought to You by www.SEPP.org  The Science and Environmental Policy Project

Brief TWTW This Week

This TWTW is very brief. It focuses on two recent articles by S. Fred Singer of scientific importance: 1) Editor of Science Magazine Should Resign!; and 2) A Paradigm Change: Re-directing public concern from Global Warming to Global Cooling. The normal TWTW will resume next week.

We are at the 33rd Annual Meeting of the Doctors for Disaster Preparedness titled: “Myths, Superstitions, and Real Threats Confronting America.” Fred Singer discussed the threat of a new cold period. Ken Haapala discussed the National Climate Assessment.

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Science Trumps Politics and Patronage: Al Gore is ‘Losing the Bet’ Against Scientific Forecasting

By Kesten C. Green – Re-Blogged From http://www.WattsUpWithThat.com

Global warming is a forecasting problem. The claim of the IPCC and sympathetic alarmists is that if we don’t stop emitting carbon dioxide, the Earth will be dangerously warmer in the future. How can they know that?

To put it another way, given the state of knowledge, are the IPCC using forecasting methods that are known to provide accurate forecasts?

In order to draw attention to this question, Professor Scott Armstrong in 2007 challenged former Vice President Al Gore to a bet on what would happen to global average temperatures over the next 10 years. Mr. Gore was getting a lot of media coverage at the time for his claims that temperatures on planet Earth were at a “tipping point” due to human emissions of CO2. He nevertheless declined, on the grounds that he does not bet.

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Environmental And Climatic Alarmism Demand Accountability

By Dr. Tim Ball – Re-Blogged From http://www.WattsUpWithThat.com

In Aesop’s story of the boy who cried wolf the consequences included him losing his sheep and his credibility, even if he later told the truth. Today, environmental and climate alarmists who cry wolf don’t lose anything. There is no accountability. In fact, they continue to have credibility, keep their jobs and receive funding as millions of others suffer in a multitude of ways. Failed climate predictions of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) continue as the basis for regulations and policies, that profoundly affect thousands of people’s lives. What is happening confirms H.L. Mencken’s observation,

“The men the American people admire most extravagantly are the greatest liars: the men they detest most violently are those who try to tell them the truth.”

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The Iceman Cometh?

By Paul Driessen – Re-Blogged From http://www.WattsUpWithThat.com

Could a quiescent sun portend a new little ice age: a chilly era for humanity and agriculture?

President Obama, Al Gore and other alarmists continue to prophesy manmade global warming crises, brought on by our “unsustainable” reliance on fossil fuels. Modelers like Mike Mann and Gavin Schmidt conjure up illusory crisis “scenarios” based on the assumption that carbon dioxide emissions now drive climate change. A trillion-dollar Climate Crisis industry self-servingly echoes their claims.

But what if these merchants of fear are wrong? What if the sun refuses to cooperate with the alarmists?

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Too Cold is More Deadly Than Too Hot

Re-Blogged From http://www.WattsUpWithThat.com By Anthony Watts

Australians are more likely to die during unseasonably cold winters than hotter than average summers, QUT research has found.

From the Queensland University of Technology

Across the country severe winters that are colder and drier than normal are a far bigger risk to health than sweltering summers that are hotter than average.

QUT Associate Professor Adrian Barnett, a statistician with the Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation and the lead researcher of the study, said death rates in Australian cities were up to 30 per cent higher in winter than summer.

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A New Ice Age?

cropped-bob-shapiro.jpg   By Bob Shapiro

While Global Warming Alarmists try to scare us into destroying our Economy by eliminating fossil fuels, the natural history of the last million years suggests we may be nearing another of the cyclical Ice Ages – perhaps “Little” but maybe not.

Even the 2-3 degree (Celsius) drop to a new Little Ice Age would be far more devastating than 2-3 more degrees of warming.

Here’s a video discussing past cold cycles and what could be in store.

Why Current Climate is Anomaly, and Ice Age Climate is Normal Earth’s Climate

Re-Blogged from TheWatchers.Adorraeli.com

The Ice Age isn’t coming, because it is already here. According to author and researcher Rolf Witzsche the Ice Age Climate is the normal climate for the Earth and it has been for more than 85% of the last million years. Because glaciation has been the normal state of the climate, the glacial epoch has been named Pleistocene Epoch. Our present, nicely warm period is the anomaly in this epic icy landscape. The entire development of what we call civilization has occurred in this climate anomaly.

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Global Warming Fantasy

cropped-bob-shapiro.jpg   By Bob Shapiro

Someone sent me this article about scientist James Lovelock, from the Guardian newspaper in the UK – I really had a good laugh:

“In 1965 executives at Shell wanted to know what the world would look like in the year 2000. They consulted a range of experts, who speculated about fusion-powered hovercrafts and “all sorts of fanciful technological stuff”. When the oil company asked the scientist James Lovelock, he predicted that the main problem in 2000 would be the environment. “It will be worsening then to such an extent that it will seriously affect their business,” he said.

“And of course,” Lovelock says, with a smile 43 years later, “that’s almost exactly what’s happened.” Read More –>

Actually, it’s 50 years later, and it’s hard to imaging how Lovelock could have been more wrong!

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Global Warming vs Global Cooling

cropped-bob-shapiro.jpg   By Bob Shapiro

The Sun beats down and warms the Earth.

Except! If the Sun’s rays hit clouds, they are reflected back into space.

But! Water vapor in the sky can’t just condense into clouds. The water vapor needs something to start condensing around. These “condensation nuclei” can be provided from aerosols, like volcanic emissions, salt spray from ocean waves, and fossil fuel burning.

But! There are other natural sources – extra-terrestrial sources – of the condensation nuclei. Danish physicist, Henrik Svensmark, has theorized that Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCR), from the remnants of the

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