Experts Predict a Long, Deep Solar Minimum

If you like solar minimum, good news: It could last for years. That was one of the predictions issued last week by an international panel of experts who gathered at NOAA’s annual Space Weather Workshop to forecast the next solar cycle. If the panel is correct, already-low sunspot counts will reach a nadir sometime between July 2019 and Sept 2020, followed by a slow recovery toward a new Solar Maximum in 2023-2026.

“We expect Solar Cycle 25 will be very similar to Cycle 24: another fairly weak maximum, preceded by a long, deep minimum,” says panel co-chair Lisa Upton, a solar physicist with Space Systems Research Corp.

SolarCycle25b

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Climate is Not the Only Limit to Agriculture

By Dr. Tim Ball (Adaptation of article in The Landowner) – Re-Blogged From WUWT

“Agriculture… is the first in utility, and ought to be the first in respect.” Thomas Jefferson

“There are no farms in the cities, but there are no cities without farms.” Tim Ball

There are marked differences between the atmosphere and nature of the environment between the city and the countryside. Unfortunately, because they are unknown or ignored by most academics, bureaucrats, and politicians, they threaten the very basis of society through bad policy. The disconnect between urban and rural extends to almost everything about living in the real world. As people moved to cities, they quickly forgot about the land and nature. Their views, perceptions, and concerns changed. For example, I listen to the weather forecast, and it editorializes about ‘good weather.’ They then predict hot and sunny days to the delight of the urbanite, when the farmers need rain. I remember one summer that urban dwellers thought was terrible, but the farm community thoroughly enjoyed it. Almost like clockwork it was sunny all week and rained every weekend. It became an urban joke. “What day is it after two days of rain – Monday. What do you call it is if it rains on Monday – a long weekend.”

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Of Water And Albedo

By Willis Eschenbach – Re-Blogged From WUWT

As usual, there is more to learn in the CERES satellite dataset. I got to thinking of the idea put forth by Lacis 2010. He announced model results claiming that if the only modeled greenhouse gas in the modeled atmosphere were modeled water, the model world would basically evolve to a modeled ice over condition at a modeled -20°C (-4°F). Here is his money graph, showing the evolution of various modeled climate measurements in the first fifty modeled years after removing all modeled GHGs except for modeled water from the modeled atmosphere. See his paper for details.

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Carbon Fuels Conquered Famine – But Green Policies Are Inviting It Again

by Viv Forbes – Re-Blogged From http://www.WattsUpWithThat.com

The Long War on Famine


Famine has haunted humans for most of their history.

In the days of the Pharaohs, whenever the Nile River failed to flood, Egypt starved. Joseph was called in and he organised stockpiling of grain for famine relief.

Even mighty Rome suffered famines – in 436 BC thousands of starving people threw themselves into the Tiber.

The cold Middle Ages in Europe were haunted by famines. In the 11th and 12th century, famines averaged one in 14 years. Even in England there were 22 recorded famines in the 13th century. In 1235, 20,000 people died in London and people ate horse flesh, bark and grass. There were great famines in India, Bengal, France, China and Russia.

Victims of the Great Famine of 1876–78 in India (British Royal Photography Services)

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Don’t Tell Anyone, But We Just Had Two Years Of Record-Breaking Global Cooling

Editorial in Investors Business Daily

Inconvenient Science: NASA data show that global temperatures dropped sharply over the past two years. Not that you’d know it, since that wasn’t deemed news. Does that make NASA a global warming denier?

Writing in Real Clear Markets, Aaron Brown looked at the official NASA global temperature data and noticed something surprising. From February 2016 to February 2018, “global average temperatures dropped by 0.56 degrees Celsius.” That, he notes, is the biggest two-year drop in the past century.

“The 2016-2018 Big Chill,” he writes, “was composed of two Little Chills, the biggest five month drop ever (February to June 2016) and the fourth biggest (February to June 2017). A similar event from February to June 2018 would bring global average temperatures below the 1980s average.

Isn’t this just the sort of man-bites-dog story that the mainstream media always says is newsworthy?

In this case, it didn’t warrant any news coverage.

In fact, in the three weeks since Real Clear Markets ran Brown’s story, no other news outlet picked up on it. They did, however, find time to report on such things as tourism’s impact on climate change, how global warming will generate more hurricanes this year, and threaten fish habitats, and make islands uninhabitable. They wrote about a UN official saying that “our window of time for addressing climate change is closing very quickly.”

Reporters even found time to cover a group that says they want to carve President Trump’s face into a glacier to prove climate change “is happening.”

In other words, the mainstream news covered stories that repeated what climate change advocates have been saying ad nauseam for decades.

That’s not to say that a two-year stretch of cooling means that global warming is a hoax. Two years out of hundreds or thousands doesn’t necessarily mean anything. And there could be a reasonable explanation. But the drop in temperatures at least merits a “Hey, what’s going on here?” story.

What’s more, journalists are perfectly willing to jump on any individual weather anomaly — or even a picture of a starving polar bear — as proof of global warming. (We haven’t seen any stories pinning Hawaii’s recent volcanic activity on global warming yet, but won’t be surprised if someone tries to make the connection.)

We’ve noted this refusal to cover inconvenient scientific findings many times in this space over the years.

Hiding The Evidence

There was the study published in the American Meteorological Society’s Journal of Climate showing that climate models exaggerate global warming from CO2 emissions by as much as 45%. It was ignored.

Then there was the study in the journal Nature Geoscience that found that climate models were faulty, and that, as one of the authors put it, “We haven’t seen that rapid acceleration in warming after 2000 that we see in the models.”

Nor did the press see fit to report on findings from the University of Alabama-Huntsville showing that the Earth’s atmosphere appears to be less sensitive to changing CO2 levels than previously assumed.

How about the fact that the U.S. has cut CO2 emissions over the past 13 years faster than any other industrialized nation? Or that polar bear populations are increasing? Or that we haven’t seen any increase in violent weather in decades?

Crickets.

Reporters no doubt worry that covering such findings will only embolden “deniers” and undermine support for immediate, drastic action.

But if fears of catastrophic climate change are warranted — which we seriously doubt — ignoring things like the rapid cooling in the past two years carries an even bigger risk.

Suppose, Brown writes, the two-year cooling trend continues. “At some point the news will leak out that all global warming since 1980 has been wiped out in two and a half years, and that record-setting events went unreported.”

He goes on: “Some people could go from uncritical acceptance of steadily rising temperatures to uncritical refusal to accept any warming at all.”

Brown is right. News outlets should decide what gets covered based on its news value, not on whether it pushes an agenda. Otherwise, they’re doing the public a disservice and putting their own already shaky credibility at greater risk.

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Approaching ‘Grand Solar Minimum’ Could Cause Global Cooling

By Anthony Watts – Re-Blogged From http://www.WattsUpWithThat.com

There’s a lot of evidence mounting that solar cycle 25 will usher in a new grand solar minimum. Since about October 2005, when the sun’s magnetic activity went into a sharp fall, solar activity has been markedly lower, with solar cycle 24 being the lowest in over 100 years.

Interplanetary magnetic field – Image from NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center

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The 1970s Global Cooling Scare

By Bernie Lewin – Re-Blogged From http://www.WattsUpWithThat.com

This is the second post drawing on themes raised in the book Searching for the Catastrophe Signal. See a previous post on WUWT here.

Forty-five years ago today, two geologists penned a letter to the president of the United States warning that the rocky decent into the next ice age might have already begun.

Letter from Kukla and Matthews to the President of the United States, 3 December, 1972TUCSON, July 31 (UPI) — Scientists confirmed Thursday that water, considered an essential building block of life, does indeed exist on the planet Mars.An analysis of a soil sample collected by the Phoenix lander detected traces of water, which exists as ice just below the red soil on the Martian surface.

“We’ve seen evidence for this water ice before in observations by the Mars Odyssey orbiter and in disappearing chunks observed by Phoenix last month,” scientist William Boynton said in a written statement released by NASA and the Jet Propulsion Lab, “but this is the first time Martian water has been touched and tasted.”

Boynton is lead scientist for the Thermal and Evolved-Gas Analyzer team based at the University of Arizona.

Details of the composition of the water were not immediately released. The sample came from a 2-inch deep trench carefully carved by the lander’s robotic arm.

The presence of water is one of more dramatic discoveries made by the Phoenix since it touched down on Mars near the pole May 24. NASA announced it had secured funding to extend the Phoenix mission through Sept. 30.

More here: http://phoenix.lpl.arizona.edu/

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