Gold Investment Stalled

By Adam Hamilton – Re-Blogged From http://www.Gold-Eagle.com

Gold has largely been drifting sideways for the better part of a couple months now, sapping enthusiasm. Gold investment demand has stalled due to extreme stock-market euphoria. Investors aren’t interested in alternative investments led by gold when stocks seemingly do nothing but rally indefinitely. But once stock-market volatility inevitably returns, so will gold investment demand which fuels major gold uplegs.

Like nearly everything else in the global markets, gold prices are heavily dependent on investment capital flows. When investors are buying gold in a meaningful way, demand exceeds supply which drives gold’s price higher. When they’re materially selling, supply trumps demand thus gold’s price naturally retreats. The past couple months have been stuck in the middle, with gold investment flows neutral on balance.

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Gold Uplegs’ Three Stages

By Adam Hamilton – Re-Blogged From http://www.Gold-Eagle.com

Gold bull markets offer outstanding opportunities for traders to grow their wealth. These bulls consist of series of alternating uplegs and corrections. Naturally the best times to buy low within ongoing bulls are right after corrections when major new uplegs are being born. Gold uplegs have three distinct stages that are evident in real-time in key datasets. Understanding how gold uplegs play out leads to superior gains.

Bull markets in gold can be exceedingly profitable for investors and speculators. The last secular gold bull ran between April 2001 to August 2011. During that 10.4-year span, gold powered 638.2% higher! That radically bested the general stock markets’ 1.9% loss per the S&P 500 over that same time frame. Hardened contrarians willing to buy low as gold bottoms after long bears can ride all of gold’s big bull gains.

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Gold Miners’ Q1’17 Fundamentals

By Adam Hamilton – Re-Blogged From www.Gold-Eagle.com

The gold miners’ stocks have been slammed by a sharp gold pullback in recent weeks, spawning today’s bearish sentiment.  Traders often get caught up in the emotional swings generated by this volatile sector.  But once a quarter earnings season arrives, revealing gold mining’s hard fundamental realities which dispel the obscuring sentiment fogs.  The major gold miners’ profitability actually just exploded higher in Q1!

Four times a year publicly-traded companies release treasure troves of valuable information in the form of quarterly reports.  Companies trading in the States are required to file 10-Qs with the US Securities and Exchange Commission by 45 calendar days after quarter-ends.  Canadian companies have similar requirements.  Some companies in other countries with half-year reporting instead of quarterly even follow suit.

So the world’s major gold miners are just wrapping up their first-quarter earnings season.  After spending decades intensely studying and actively trading this contrarian sector, there’s no gold-stock data I look forward to more than the miners’ quarterly financial and operational reports.  They offer a true and clear snapshot of what’s really going on, shattering the misconceptions bred by the ever-shifting winds of sentiment.

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Gold-Stock Breakouts Near

By Adam Hamilton – Re-Blogged From http://www.Gold-Eagle.com

The gold-mining stocks’ usual volatility has proven outsized so far this year, spooking investors.  A fast initial surge in a new upleg was soon fully reversed by a sharp major correction, which spawned much bearish sentiment.  That combined with the great distraction from the Trumphoria stock-market rally has left gold stocks unloved and overlooked.  But their outlook is very bullish, and major upside breakouts near.

It’s hard to find bargains in today’s extreme stock markets.  They’ve been radically distorted by the post-election euphoria centered on universal hopes for big tax cuts soon.  Nearly every sector has been bid up to dizzying valuations.  Except gold stocks, which everyone still hates.  They may very well be the last remaining contrarian sector in these crazy markets, and thus a great buying opportunity for smart traders.

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Gold Juniors’ Q4’16 Fundamentals

By Adam Hamilton – Re-Blogged From Zeal

The junior gold stocks corrected hard in recent weeks, setting them up to blast higher on Wednesday’s less-hawkish-than-expected Fed.  That started to dispel some of the serious bearish sentiment that has been mounting in this sector.  The junior gold miners’ fundamentals justify much-higher stock prices, as evidenced in their recently-reported fourth-quarter operating and financial results.  They remain very bullish.

Four times a year publicly-traded companies release treasure troves of valuable information in the form of quarterly reports.  Required by securities regulators, these quarterly results are exceedingly important for investors and speculators.  They banish all the sentimental distortions surrounding prevailing stock-price levels, revealing the underlying hard fundamental realities.  This greatly helps in re-anchoring perceptions.

After spending decades intensely studying and actively trading this contrarian sector, there is no gold-stock data I look forward to more than their quarterly reports.  These offer a true and clear snapshot of what’s really going on, overcoming all the misconceptions bred by the ever-shifting winds of sentiment.  If you have capital deployed in this sector but don’t watch the quarterlies, you’re shooting yourself in the foot.

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Gold Stocks Shine in 2017

By Adam Hamilton – Re-Blogged From http://www.ZealLLC.com

The gold miners’ stocks are rocketing higher again after suffering a rough few months.  Following sharp selloffs on gold-futures stops being run, the Trumphoria stock-market surge, and a more-hawkish-than-expected Fed, this battered sector had largely been left for dead.  But gold stocks’ strong fundamentals finally overcame the dismal herd sentiment last week, paving the way for this sector to shine again in 2017.

This “shine again” assertion likely seems dubious to casual observers, since the gold miners’ stocks suffered a miserable Q4’16.  The leading HUI NYSE Arca Gold BUGS Index plunged 21.1% in a quarter where the benchmark S&P 500 broad-market stock index surged 3.3%.  Naturally gold miners’ profits are fully dependent on gold prices, and this metal fell 12.7% in Q4 which proved one of its worst quarters ever.

Thus no sector has been more out of favor in recent months than precious metals.  Gold and therefore gold-stock bearishness abounded, with bullish outlooks dwindling near nonexistent.  But viewing gold stocks solely through the extremely-distorted post-election lens is a serious mistake.  Despite their sharp Q4 selloffs, this sector as measured by the HUI led the markets by still soaring 64.0% higher in full-year 2016!

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Gold Stocks Screaming Buy

By Adam Hamilton – Re-Blogged From http://www.Zealllc.com

The gold miners’ stocks are suffering from universal and overwhelming bearishness today, with nearly everyone expecting further selling.  That’s the natural reaction following this sector’s recent massive correction, which climaxed in one of its biggest daily plummets ever witnessed.  But within bull markets, there’s no better time to buy aggressively than deep in a major selloff that’s riddled with great doubt and fear.

The core mission of speculation and investment is so simple even children can easily grasp it, buy low sell high.  The great challenges arise not from understanding, but execution.  Actually buying low then selling high in real markets is exceedingly unnatural and uncomfortable.  It requires traders to overcome their own greed and fear to do the exact opposite of everything their own instincts are screaming to do.

The only times speculators and investors want to buy aggressively is when it feels great to do so.  That only happens late in powerful rallies, when everyone can clearly see how strong a sector’s performance has been.  Traders then commit one of trading’s cardinal sins, extrapolating recent performance out into the indefinite future.  They assume a red-hot sector will keep on rising, and eagerly rush to buy high after a rally.

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