Trade Deal No Panacea for Rocky U.S. Relations With China

By Reuters – Re-Blogged From IJR

From Huawei to the South China Sea, deep political rifts between Beijing and Washington are set to persist, despite a trade relations breakthrough, as the United States pushes back against an increasingly powerful and assertive China.

Relations between the world’s two largest economies have deteriorated sharply since U.S. President Donald Trump imposed punitive trade tariffs in 2018, igniting a trade war.

“The broader, darkening picture is not going to be brightened much by this deal,” Bates Gill, an expert on Chinese security policy at Macquarie University in Sydney, said of the initial trade deal signed on Wednesday.

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Marches in Hong Kong? How Many & What to Do.

By Amanda Darrach – Re-Blogged From Columbia Journalism Review

Protests against a plan to allow extraditions to mainland China in Hong Kong, June 9, 2019. Photo: Lam Yik Fei/The New York Times

The crowd of protesters in Hong Kong on Sunday stretched more than a mile. As the city’s legislature considered a bill that would allow extraditions from Hong Kong, which is semi-autonomous, to China, Civil Human Rights Front, the group that organized the demonstration, estimated that more than a million people had come out to march. Hong Kong police, however, put the number at 240,000 people.

Crowd size is a marker for energy around a cause. “It’s hard to measure enthusiasm based on speeches or noise level,” says Steve Doig, who specializes in data-based crowd-counting as a professor at the Walter Cronkite School of Journalism and Mass Communication at Arizona State University. “So the size of the crowd is the token that various sides will want to inflate or deflate.”

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U.S. Relations With China Just Were Destroyed

By Michael Snyder – Re-Blogged From http://themostimportantnews.com

Our relationship with China just went from bad to worse, and most Americans don’t even realize that we just witnessed one of the most critical foreign policy decisions of this century. The U.S. Senate just unanimously passed the “Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act of 2019”, and the Chinese are absolutely seething with anger. Violent protests have been rocking Hong Kong for months, and the Chinese have repeatedly accused the United States of being behind the protests. Whether that is true or not, the U.S. Senate has openly sided with the protesters by passing this bill, and there is no turning back now.

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China or US?

By Alasdair Macleod – Re-Blogged From Gold Money

China has made some silly errors in its conflict with the US, reflecting the arrogance that often afflicts every state actor. But the appearance that China is being backed into a corner over Huawei, trade tariffs and Hong Kong is misleading. China is progressing her own plans, and they do not require an accommodation with America. With Russia in tow, she is now the chief foreign influencer for up to three-quarters of the world’s population, so it is American hegemony that’s being backed into a corner.  One day, this will be reflected in a currency shoot-out. This article concludes that the dollar is more at risk than the yuan, the opposite of perceptions in western capital markets.

Introduction

In the undeclared war between the US and China, the focus has been on the obvious battles. Huawei has been badly wounded but looks like surviving. The trade tariff battle continues and the battle in Hong Kong is ongoing and yet to be resolved.

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Gold To Benefit As Chinese Economy Hits The Wall

By Mike Gleason – Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle

“No China Trade Deal Until 2020, Maybe 2021…Maybe Never”

Mike Gleason: Trade tensions with China have been one of the big stories in the financial press for the past year and a half. We’ve seen U.S. equity markets gyrate up and down. One day traders are euphoric on rumors that a deal with China will soon be reached. The next day, they’re depressed over news of escalating tariffs and some other negative developments. Most recently, we saw a big rally in the stock market on the announcement that some tariffs will be delayed by a few months, although with the further inversion of the yield curve here today, the day we’re talking, Wednesday, the stock market is giving pretty much all of that back. But that aside, I’d like to start by getting your assessment of the prospects for a trade deal here, Gordon. Do you think we’re going to see these tensions resolved in the next few months?

Gordon Chang: Certainly not. I don’t see a comprehensive trade deal until 2020, maybe 2021, maybe never. Problem is Xi Jinping, the Chinese ruler, doesn’t necessarily want a deal. He owns this trade war, quote-unquote, and if he makes significant compromises, he’s going to accept the political responsibility for that. You’ve got to remember that accumulating great power is of course an advantage, but it means he also accumulated great accountability. He can’t blame other people. So I think that the Chinese political system right now is pretty much frozen, and that means we’re not going to see a comprehensive deal. We’re probably not even going to see an interim arrangement, either.

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The Hong Kong Protests

It appears that the two steps forward, one step backwards approach of mainland China isn’t working as Hong Kong citizens are protesting again. The increasingly violent protests have plunged Chinese-ruled Hong Kong into its most serious crisis in decades, and the situation appears to be getting worse every week. What does it imply for the gold market?

Hong Kongers Protest

On Monday, Hong Kong’s Airport Authority canceled flights as demonstrators poured into its main terminal. What is going on in Hong Kong? The protests began over plans that would have allowed extradition from Hong Kong to mainland China. Although the bill was suspended, the protests continue, as people demand democratic reforms. The problem is that although Hong Kong – as a former British colony – still enjoys freedoms not seen in mainland China, they are on the decline. The protesters say that mainland China is meddling in Hong Kong, citing examples such as legal rulings that have disqualified pro-democracy legislators.

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