We currently have well above average prices for stocks, bonds and homes. This raises a simple question – what would happen to the average retirement account and to home equity for the average homeowner, if valuations were to return to what long term averages show us are normal valuations?
Using decades of valuation information on stocks, bonds and homes, this analysis develops numbers in each category that show how much of current national stock, bond and home prices represents average values, and how much is a premium above normal valuations.
Using those historical values and the illustration of an example homeowner and retirement account investor, it is demonstrated that the current premium is around 59% above long term average valuations. How the loss of such a premium could have life changing implications for tens of millions of homeowners and retirement account investors is reviewed.