Deflation Is Everywhere—If You Know Where To Look

By Keith Weiner – Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle

At a shopping mall recently, we observed an interesting deal at Sketchers. If you buy two pairs of shoes, the second is 30% off. Sketchers has long offered deals like this (sometimes 50% off). This is a sign of deflation.

Regular readers know to wait for the punchline.

Manufacturer Gives Away Its Margins

We do not refer merely to the fact that there is a discount. We are not simply arguing that Sketchers are sold cheaper—hence deflation. That is not our approach. Let’s look beneath the surface, and drill deeper.

Sketchers makes the sort of shoes that you wear frequently, especially for exercise. They are not made to last forever, and not haute couture that will be worn once every blue moon. If the customer likes the Sketchers styling and they fit well (e.g. for wide feet), then he will be back to buy the next pair in three or four months.

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Fighting Inflation, Fighting Deflation, Fighting For Their Lives

By Mark J Lundeen – Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle

The Dow Jones Index closed the week down 5.38% from its last all-time high of July 15th, a month ago. But looking at the Dow Jones as Mr Bear does in the BEV chart below, with every new all-time high registered as a 0.0%, or BEV Zero, and all other daily closings as a percentage decline from their last all-time high, comes short of displaying what has happened in the stock market since July 15th.

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Falling Yields And Currency Turmoil

By Mike Gleason – Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle

What a wild week it’s been for investors.

The threat of global trade wars and currency wars sparked big swings across all major asset classes. Bond yields dove toward historic lows. Stocks plunged earlier in the week before rebounding sharply by Thursday. And precious metals rode a huge safe-haven wave higher.

Gold prices eclipsed the $1,500 level on Wednesday for the first time in over six years. Meanwhile, silver price pushed above $17 an ounce to record a one-year high. Both metals are up over 4% for the week.

The money metals are becoming increasingly attractive as President Donald Trump ramps up his battles against China abroad and the Federal Reserve at home.

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Deeply Negative Nominal Rates Are On Their Way

Growing evidence of a severe global recession is sure to provoke more aggressive monetary policies from central banks. They had hoped to have the leeway to cut interest rates significantly after normalising them. That hasn’t happened. Consequently, as the recession intensifies central banks will see no alternative to deeper negative nominal rates to keep their governments and banks afloat through a combination of eliminating borrowing costs and inflating bond prices. It will be the last throw of the fiat-money dice and, if pursued, will ultimately end in the death of them. Gold and bitcoin prices are now beginning to detect deeper negative rates and the adverse consequences for fiat currencies.

The problem

Central banks face a dilemma: how can they cut interest rates enough to stop an economy sliding into recession. A central banker addressing it will note that the average cut required to put an economy back on its feet is of the order of 5%, judging by the experience of 2001/02 and 2008/09 and what their economic models tell them. Yet, in Euroland the starting point is minus 0.4% and in Japan minus 0.1%. In the US it was 2.5% before the recent reduction and in the UK 0.75%. The solution they will almost certainly favour is deeper negative nominal interest rates.

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Gold Prices – The Next 5 Years

By GE Christenson – Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle

Breaking News: COMEX paper gold contracts closed on Wednesday, August 7, at $1,513, up from $1,274 on May 22. Gold bottomed at $1,045 in December 2015. The S&P 500 Index closed at a new all-time high on July 26.

Gold closed at its highest price since 2013.

Read: Silver Prices – The Next 5 Years

What Happens Next?

  • We don’t know. Gold has disappointed for years, but central banks must “inflate or die.” Expect more QE, lower interest rates and excessive political and central bank manipulations.

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Inflation Ghosts: Past, Present & Future

Individuals dream about winning the lottery, stock market profits, reducing debt, earning more income, attractive sex partners, and tasty food. But our dreams can turn into nightmares filled with inflation ghosts and monsters.

The derivative monster is a destroyer. Deutsche Bank stock closed at $6.76 on June 7, 2019, down from over $100 in 2007. A repeat of 2007 is possible. Price on July 25 is $7.89 – still sick.

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Central Bank Folly: Blame The Boomers…

By Michael Ballanger – Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle

“Destroyers seize gold and leave to its owners a counterfeit pile of paper.” – Ayn Rand

The baby-boom generation, of which I am a less-than-proud member, blew it.

There was a time long, long ago when the mention of the word “baby-boomer” evoked a sense of pride of membership. Amidst the prosperity of the post-WWII era, birth rates in North America soared while the sons and daughters of many men and women that fought in the war became the dominant demographic force by the year 1966. When I was in Grade 10, I wrote an essay that pointed to the defining moment where the excitement and unbridled optimism of the Space Race, advances in modern medicine, and unparalleled economic growth was snuffed out forever by an assassin’s bullet in Dallas in the autumn of 1963. With the end of Camelot, the boomer generation suddenly began to question things. They threw away the Beach Boys “Surfin’ Nirvana” lifestyle to the darker messages of Bob Dylan, CSNY, the Doors, and Hendrix as they watched while the Viet Nam war claimed over 58,000 U.S. servicemen and caused massive civil unrest to permeate the inner cities and the campuses of America.

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