Monetary Failure is Becoming Inevitable

By Alasdair Macleod – Re-Blogged From GoldMoney

This article posits that there is an unpleasant conjunction of events beginning to undermine government finances in advanced nations. They combine the arrival of a long-term trend of rising welfare commitments with an increasing certainty of a global-scale credit crisis, in turn the outcome of a combination of the peak of the credit cycle and increasing trade protectionism. We see the latter already undermining the global economy, catching both governments and investors unexpectedly.

Few observers seem aware that an economic and systemic crisis will occur at a time when government finances are already precarious. However, the consequences are unthinkable for the authorities, and for this reason it is certain such a downturn will lead to a substantial increase in monetary inflation. The scale of the problem needs to be grasped in order to assess how destructive it will be for government finances and ultimately state-issued currencies.

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Measuring Recession

By Alasdair Macleod – Re-Blogged From Gold Money

Using nominal GDP, or GDP deflated by the CPI, as the principal guide to the state of the economy is a common mistake which will eventually prove very costly. Having convinced themselves that GDP measures economic progress, government statisticians have suppressed evidence of price inflation, giving the illusion of economic growth. Policy makers appear unaware that they are leeching ordinary people and their businesses of their wealth to the point where an economic and monetary collapse becomes inevitable. This article exposes how the authorities use GDP and the CPI to conceal the true deterioration of an economy.

Introduction

When an economy turns from expansion to contraction there is an order of events. The first signs are an unexpected increase in inventories of unsold goods, both accompanied with and followed by business surveys indicating a general softening in demand. For monetarists, this is often confirmed by an inverting yield curve, which tells them that at the margin the short-term rates set by the central bank are becoming too high for business conditions.

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Inflation Rises Most Since September 2008

Summary

Inflation as measured by the “core” Consumer Price Index, which removes the volatile food and energy segments, jumped in August at the highest rate in 11 years, by 2.39%, a smidgen above the prior peaks of July 2018 (2.35%), February 2016 (2.33%), and April 2012 (2.32%).

The US is currently undergoing the second oil-and-gas bust since mid-2014, or same oil-and-gas bust, with two parts separated by a sucker rally. And so energy prices, which have a weight of 7.8% in the overall CPI, dropped 4.4% from a year ago, with gasoline and diesel prices falling 7.0%.

In August, the CPI for services rose by 2.70% compared to a year ago.

In terms of percent change, the CPI for durable goods in August ticked up 0.6% – the fastest increase since May 2012.

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Von Greyerz Interviewed By SilverDoctors

By Egon von Greyerz – Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle

In this interview with Silverdoctors, Egon discusses $666 silver and $10’000 gold. Some viewers commented the 666 price target.

Egon stated in response to these comments:


All the commentaries related to 666 and Luciferians have got the wrong Bible quote. Here is the correct one: 2 Chronicles 9.13 “The weight of gold that came to Solomon in one year was six hundred sixty-six talents of gold.” 666 talents of gold is today worth over $1 billion. So the wise King Salomon collected $1 billion of gold every year which has nothing to do with Lucifer. 


Also:

  • What is going on now in the global economy, and how does it compare to Nixon Closing the Gold Window in 1971.
  • Governments are stockpiling record amounts of gold, but are we at gold fever yet, and what will that look like.
  • Will we see inflation, deflation, or hyperinflation.
  • Gold recently broke Egon’s Maginot Line of $1350. What does that mean and what is Egon’s current outlook for gold.
  • What does Egon think about silver and the gold-to-silver ratio?
  • What is on Egon’s radar for the autumn of 2019.

For the discussion of those topics and a whole lot more, tune in to the interview in its entirety:

Egon von Greyerz
Founder and Managing Partner
Matterhorn Asset Management
Zurich, Switzerland
Phone: +41 44 213 62 45

Matterhorn Asset Management’s global client base strategically stores an important part of their wealth in Switzerland in physical gold and silver outside the banking system. Matterhorn Asset Management is pleased to deliver a unique and exceptional service to our highly esteemed wealth preservation clientele in over 60 countries.
GoldSwitzerland.com
Contact Us

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Alternate Inflation Charts

Re-Blogged From Shadow Stats

The CPI chart on the home page reflects our estimate of inflation for today as if it were calculated the same way it was in 1990. The CPI on the Alternate Data Series tab here reflects the CPI as if it were calculated using the methodologies in place in 1980. In general terms, methodological shifts in government reporting have depressed reported inflation, moving the concept of the CPI away from being a measure of the cost of living needed to maintain a constant standard of living.

Further definition is provided in our  CPI Glossary. Further background on the SGS-Alternate CPI series is available in our Public Comment on Inflation Measurement.

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Central Bank Time Machine

We are now witnessing the death throes of the free market. The massive and record-breaking global debt overhang, which is now $250 trillion (330% of GDP), demands a deflationary deleveraging depression to occur; as a wave of defaults eliminates much of that untenable debt overhang. The vestiges of the free market are trying to accomplish this task, which is both healthy and necessary in the long term—no matter how destructive it may seem during the process. Just like a forest fire is sometimes necessary to clear away the dead brush in order to promote viable new growth. However, the “firemen” of today (central banks) are no longer in the business of containing wildfires, but instead proactively flooding the forest with a deluge of water to the point of destroying all life.

In point of fact, the free market is no longer being allowed to function. Communism has destroyed capitalism, as the vital savings and investment dynamic has been obliterated. Central banks have decided that savers deserve no return on their so-called risk-free investments and have hence forced into existence humongous bubbles in junk bonds and equity markets worldwide. They have destroyed the savings and investment dynamic and turned time backward.

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Peak Crazy!

By Mike Savage – Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle

In the unending blowing of the most epic financial market bubbles of all time, Germany may have just announced “peak crazy”. Overnight they issued 30-year bonds that had a NEGATIVE yield. With all of the financial shenanigans going on it is not even a surprise that they did it.

The real surprise is that the “authorities” were surprised when people didn’t line up for the honor of losing money financing their profligate debt. According to Zerohedge, the German government issued $2 billion of these bonds and the Bundesbank (German Central Bank) was forced to buy 58% of the offering.

What this really should tell everyone is that those who actually earn their money rather than conjure it up out of nowhere actually care what type of return they are going to get for the risk that is being taken. Of course, when money is conjured up out of nowhere and at virtually no cost to the “printers” any return of capital is more than they started with. There could also be a few hedge funds out there speculating that rates will go even lower and lead to a short-term profit. (If there are any buyers at an even more negative rate).

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