History Of Yield Curve Inversions

By Arkadiusz Sieroń – Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle

The inversion of the yield curve is of crucial importance as it has historically been one of the most reliable recessionary gauges. Consequently, we invite you to read our today’s article about the history of the yield curve inversions and find out whether the recession is coming, and what does it mean for the gold market.

We keep our promises. In the previous edition of the Market Overview, we promised our Readers to “dig even deeper into the predictive power of the yield curve”. As a refresher, please take a look at the chart below. It shows the U.S. Treasury yield curve, or actually not the whole curve, but the spread between 10-year and 3-month government bonds. As one can see, that difference is still negative (as of July 19). It means that the yield curve remains inverted (on a daily basis) since May 2019 (we abstract from the short-lived dip in March 2019).

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Dow Jones Bear’s Eye View

By Mark J Lundeen – Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle

The Dow Jones saw some selling pressure this past week, closing down 4.94% from its last all-time high of October 3rd of last year.

Time to press the panic button?  Not as far as I’m concerned, but then I also have no exposure to the broad stock market.  But speaking as a spectator sitting in the peanut gallery, my key indicator of when the people who do have market exposure to the NYSE and NASDAQ should exit the market was, and still is when the Dow Jones Industrial Average once again begins experiencing days of extreme volatility, (+/-) 2% daily moves from a previous day’s closing price.  Until the Dow Jones once again begins seeing those dreaded 2% days, I’ll be sitting in the cheap seats eating peanuts and cheering on the bulls.

This week I thought I’d use my Bear’s Eye View (BEV) chart of the Dow Jones going back to February 1885, with an in-depth analysis.  It’s an amazing view of the daily ups and downs for the past 134 years in the Dow Jones.  So what are we actually looking at?  We’re looking at each daily close of the Dow Jones since 16 February 1885, Any Dow Jones closing price that IS NOT a new all-time high registers as a negative percentage from the Dow Jones’ last all-time high.  For example, today’s Dow Jones BEV value indicates it has closed -4.94% from its last all-time high of October 3rd 2018.

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