You Cannot Go Wrong With Gold

By Egon von Greyerz – Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle

This is probably the most important article I have penned. It is about the destiny of three individuals who all followed different tides. We are today at the point when the consequences of taking the wrong tide will be ruinous whilst the right one will be extremely propitious.

I have quoted Brutus’ speech in Shakespeare’s Julius Caesar many times in the last twenty years. But I believe that it is today more relevant than at any time in history, when it comes to economic affairs.

There is a tide in the affairs of men.
Which, taken at the flood, leads on to fortune;
Omitted, all the voyage of their life
Is bound in shallows and in miseries.
On such a full sea are we now afloat,
And we must take the current when it serves,
Or lose our ventures.

Shakespeare – Julius Caesar

The moral of the story will be obvious. The outcomes are so vastly different that anyone who reads about the three human destinies below will easily sympathise with the one who took the tide that “leads to fortune” rather than the two who ended up “in miseries.”

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The Housing Market In 2006-2007 And 2018-2019

As can be seen in the graph below, there is an almost uncanny similarity between housing prices at the 2006-2007 peak, and current home prices.

The biggest difference is that current home prices are substantially higher. Should we be worried about a repeat scenario – and another six year decline in home values?

This analysis explores in detail the similarities between 2006-2007 and current home prices, on a national average basis. When we dig beneath the surface, we also find some major differences as well, which means that the next round could be quite different than the last round.

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Public Pension Funds Falling Short of Needed 7% Returns This Year

By Bloomberg – Re-Blogged From Newsmax

U.S. state and local government pensions, already with about $2 trillion less than they need to cover all the benefits that have been promised, are falling short of their investment-return assumptions this fiscal year — and President Donald Trump’s trade war with China isn’t helping.

The median public fund, which typically has a fiscal year ending June 30, returned 3.25% for the three quarters through March 31, according to Wilshire Associates Trust Universe Comparison Service.

Public Pension Funds Falling Short of Needed 7% Returns This Year

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Gold Up 1.2 Percent As Global Stock Rout Spreads To Europe

By Mark O’Byrne – Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle

– Gold gains 1.27% as stock markets fall globally
– EuroStoxx -2%, FTSE -1.9%, Nikkei -4%, Shanghai -5.3%
– Gold, silver outperform all assets in stock market rout
– Trump accuses Fed of going “crazy” by continuing to raise rates
– Huge spike in VIX and volatility on deepening concerns of market correction or crash

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Which Has The Bigger Economy: Texas Or Russia?

By Frank Holmes – Re-Blogged From http://www.Silver-Phoenix500.com

You’ve no doubt heard that everything’s bigger in Texas. That’s more than just a trite expression, and I’m not just saying that because Texas is home to U.S. Global Investors.

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Homes Gained $2 Trillion in Value This Year

Re-Blogged From Newsmax

Your home may not have made the same gains as stocks or bitcoin, but it still was a robust year for the U.S. housing market.

The value of the entire U.S. housing stock increased by 6.5 percent — or $2 trillion — in 2017, according to a report from Zillow. All homes in the country are now worth a cumulative $31.8 trillion.

Image: Homes Gained $2 Trillion in Value This Year Under Trump, Zillow Says
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Invest In Yourself

By Axel Merk – Re-Blogged From http://www.Silver-Phoenix500.com

The other day, I was asked what my investment advice for a 65-year old would be? My reply: “Go to the gym and watch your expenses.” To create wealth and/or preserve it for a future generation, all too often do we lose sight of the big picture. Let me explain.

Most of us invest because we pursue long-term goals, even if the means of achieving them differ greatly. This long-term goal tends to be saving for retirement; for those who can, it might extend to save for a future generation; or, for institutional investors, there might be an infinite investment horizon.

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Using Silver Dollars – Part 5

cropped-bob-shapiro.jpg   By Bob Shapiro

Silver Dollars are US money – Congress says so. In previous articles, we’ve discussed how to incorporate them into everyday commerce, allowing you to buy (POS) and sell (Invoicing) things, pay salaries (Payroll), and handle most ordinary transactions (Bill Pay) using Silver Dollars.

We’ve seen how you can use an Account to safeguard your Silver Dollars, while allowing you to deposit more and to make withdrawals. Today, we’ll look at how you can make investments denominated in Silver Dollars.

Suppose that you wanted to buy 100 shares of IBM. You could open an account at a brokerage house, deposit sufficient funds in Paper Dollars, and then instruct them – as your agent – to buy the shares for you.

They would handle the transaction, billing your Paper Dollar account, and keep your shares in their name for you. But, if you want the purchase, and/or later sale, transacted and accounted for in Silver Dollars, they cant help you. They just are not set up to work with Silver Dollars.

Now, Cambi is not a stock broker – just as we are not a bank. But, what we can do is order an item you desire, purchase it ourselves, and then resell it to you. We would add on a small profit, rather than the commission that a broker would charge. This is just as any merchant would do for any item that you would care to special order.

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Why Isn’t This Incredibly Bearish Development Making The News?

By E B Tucker – Re-Blogged From http://www.Gold-Eagle.com

There’s a very important warning signal flashing in the financial market right now.

Despite the importance of this signal, few people know about it…even fewer are talking about it.

Don’t be one of the people who don’t understand the vital importance of the bond market and what it’s telling you right now.

This knowledge could help you avoid a huge hit to your net worth over the next 12-24 months. Here’s why…

Most investors focus on just one area of the investment market: Stocks. After all, stocks have a long track record of generating solid, long-term returns. Plus, the idea of owning shares in a small business that grows large – and making 500% along the way – can capture almost anyone’s attention.

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Why Stocks Are Not “Cheap Relative To Bonds”

One of the constant refrains we hear at present is that while stocks may be richly valued on an absolute basis, they are “cheap relative to bonds.” At least one professor recently told students that valuations are meaningless because the P/E on cash is 100. Technically, with T-bill yields at just 0.01%, the P/E on cash is more like 10,000, but let’s not quibble. Using simple P/E ratios or inverted interest rates as a standard of value only makes sense if you have no appreciation for how securities are valued. By this kind of standard, I would advise these students to propose that their professor give them each $100 in return for a promise of a single payment of $2 next year, on the argument that the P/E of 50 is a fraction of the “P/E on cash.” The immediate objection – “but, value isn’t just about the coming year” – is the beginning of insight.

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Unraveling the Mystery of Oil and the Swiss Franc

By Vitaliy Katsenelson – Re-Blogged From IMA Portfolio Management

I want to preface my article with a short excerpt from one of my favorite books, Antifragile, by Nassim Taleb:

A turkey is fed for a thousand days by a butcher; every day confirms to its staff of analysts that butchers love turkeys “with increased statistical confidence.” The butcher will keep feeding the turkey until a few days before Thanksgiving. Then comes that day when it is really not a very good idea to be a turkey. So with the butcher surprising it, the turkey will have a revision of belief—right when its confidence in the statement that the butcher loves turkeys is maximal and “it is very quiet” and soothingly predictable in the life of the turkey.…The key here is that such a surprise will be a Black Swan event; but just for the turkey, not for the butcher….

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