Weekly Climate and Energy News Roundup #424

The Week That Was: September 12, 2020
Brought to You by www.SEPP.org
By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project

Quote of the Week: “An experiment is a question which science poses to Nature, and a measurement is the recording of Nature’s answer.” – Max Planck

Number of the Week: 10%

Review of the Greenhouse Effect: For the past few weeks TWTW used presentations by William Happer to discuss the greenhouse effect, which is how certain gases interfere with the loss of electromagnetic energy, particularly in the infrared frequencies, from the surface of the earth into space. The gases that slow the loss of energy (heat), keeping the earth warmer at night than it would be otherwise, are known as greenhouse gases. Starting in 1859, physicist John Tyndall described their influence through a set of experiments. Tyndall recognized that water vapor is the dominant greenhouse gas, and without it land masses would freeze at night, making vegetative growth virtually impossible.

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Weekly Climate and Energy News Roundup #422

The Week That Was: September 5, 2020

By Ken Haapala, President, SEPP, Brought to You by www.SEPP.org

Quote of the Week: “A few days ago, a Master of Arts, who is still a young man, and therefore the recipient of a modern education, stated to me that until he had reached the age of twenty he had never been taught anything whatever regarding natural phenomena, or natural law. Twelve years of his life previously had been spent exclusively amongst the ancients. The case, I regret to say, is typical. Now we cannot, without prejudice to humanity, separate the present from the past.” – John Tyndall (1854)

Number of the Week: 4.3 to 8.7 million people in California exposed!

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Weekly Climate and Energy News Roundup #420

The Week That Was: August 22, 2020

By Ken Haapala, President,SEPP,Brought to You by http://www.SEPP.org

Quote of the Week: “Private corporations and persons that own, operate, control, or manage a line, plant, or system for … the production, generation, transmission, or furnishing of heat, light, water, power, … directly or indirectly to or for the public, and common carriers, are public utilities subject to control by the Legislature.” – Section 3, Article XII Public Utilities, California Constitution, added Nov 5, 1974

Number of the Week: 10% of 27,695 MW Equals Zero

I’m shocked! Shocked! To protect the energy system which provides electric power for most of the state, the California Independent System Operator (CAISO) was forced to create rolling blackouts during unusually hot days this past week. Immediately the chief executive of the state, Governor Gavin Newsom began blaming others for these needed actions, sending a letter to CAISO and the Public Utility Commission. According to the state constitution, the Commission “consists of 5 members appointed by the Governor and approved by the Senate, a majority of the membership concurring, for staggered 6-year terms.” CAISO has no authority over the Commission.

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Weekly Climate and Energy News Roundup #419

By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project

The Week That Was: August 8, 2020, Brought to You by www.SEPP.org

Re-Blogged From WUWT

Quote of the Week: “What we observe is not Nature itself but Nature exposed to our methods of questioning.” –Werner Heisenberg, also “We have to remember that what we observe is not nature itself, but nature exposed to our methods of questioning.” – Ludwig Wittgenstein

Number of the Week: Zero (0)

July Summary Part V; General Conclusions: Four weeks ago TWTW reviewed Richard Lindzen’s new paper summarizing what we know with reasonable certainty, what we suspect, and what we know is incorrect about climate change, the greenhouse effect, temperature trends, climate modeling, ocean chemistry, and sea level rise. Key parts included (with additions in boldface):

1) The climate system is never in equilibrium.

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Weekly Climate and Energy News Roundup #418

The Week That Was: August 1, 2020

By Ken Haapala, President, www.SEPP.org

Quote of the Week: The right to search for the truth implies also a duty; one must not conceal any part of what one has recognized to be true.” – Albert Einstein. [H/t Michael Dourson]

Number of the Week: 33 to 1

July Summary Part IV; Changing Ocean Chemistry and Sea Levels: Three weeks ago TWTW reviewed Richard Lindzen’s new paper summarizing what we know with reasonable certainty, what we suspect, and what we know is incorrect about climate change, the greenhouse effect, temperature trends, climate modeling, ocean chemistry, and sea level rise. Key parts included:

1) The climate system is never in equilibrium.

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Weekly Climate and Energy News Roundup # 417

The Week That Was: July 25, 2020

By Ken Haapala, President, SEPP

Quote of the Week: “When we are planning for posterity, we ought to remember that virtue is not hereditary.” —Thomas Paine (1776)

Number of the Week: 12 datasets of evidence

July Summary Part III; Models and Observations: Two weeks ago TWTW reviewed Richard Lindzen’s new paper summarizing what we know with reasonable certainty, what we suspect, and what we know is incorrect about climate change, the greenhouse effect, temperature trends, climate modeling, ocean chemistry, and sea level rise. Key parts included:

1) The climate system is never in equilibrium.

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Faulty Forecasts and False Climate Narrative Hold Nations Hostage

By Vijay Jayaraj – Re4-Blogged From WUWT

The United States is the only major Western country that is not part of the Paris climate agreement, which seeks to restrict and reduce fossil fuel consumption across the world. But the country is not immune from the impacts of the restrictive energy policies the agreement imposes on its trade partners. One of those is my own country, India.

India imports large amounts of coal, oil, and natural gas from the U.S., mostly to generate affordable power for its electric grid. That grid must grow rapidly to meet the needs of over 1.3 billion people. Over 300 million of them—comparable to the whole U.S. population—currently have no electricity. But they need it desperately for their health and their escape from severe poverty.

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Weekly Climate and Energy News Roundup #415

By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project

Re-Blogged From WUWT

Quote of the Week: The problem isn’t that Johnny can’t read. The problem isn’t even that Johnny can’t think. The problem is that Johnny doesn’t know what thinking is; he confuses it with feeling.” ― Thomas Sowell [H/t Jim Buell]

Number of the Week: 0.086ºC/decade (0.155ºF/decade)

Oversimplified-Part II: Last week, TWTW focused on part of a new paper by MIT Professor emeritus in Atmospheric Physics Richard Lindzen titled: “An oversimplified picture of the climate behavior based on a single process can lead to distorted conclusions.” It presented the generally accepted physical characteristics of the climate system, which is extraordinarily complex and ever changing. As Lindzen asserts, even if the solar forcing were constant, which it is not, the climate would vary. With the massive size of the oceans, and their ability to absorb heat, such variations can involve timescales of a thousand years or more.

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Weekly Climate and Energy News Roundup #414

By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project

Re-Blogged From WUWT

Quote of the Week: “Philosophers say a great deal about what is absolutely necessary for science, and it is always, so far as one can see, rather naive, and probably wrong.” – Richard Feynman

Number of the Week: 2%

Oversimplified: Last week, TWTW presented a new paper from MIT Professor emeritus in Atmospheric Physics Richard Lindzen titled: “An oversimplified picture of the climate behavior based on a single process can lead to distorted conclusions.” The discussion was limited to what was presented in the No Tricks Zone blog. Further, TWTW did not draw a clear distinction between what the blog presented and what Lindzen actually wrote.

Starting with the UN and continuing through virtually all industrialized countries in the West, there is enormous political pressure to replace reliable fossil fuels with unreliable wind and solar power, particularly for electricity generation. Yet, no successful demonstration project exists showing this can be done at reasonable costs. Even the largest “battery” in the world, the Bath County Pumped [Hydro] Storage Station in Virginia, must be recharged, refilled, nightly by electricity from reliable nuclear and coal-fired power plants.

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Weekly Climate and Energy News Roundup #412

By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project

Re-Blogged From WUWT

Quote of the Week: “I can live with doubt and uncertainty and not knowing. I think it is much more interesting to live not knowing than to have answers that might be wrong. If we will only allow that, as we progress, we remain unsure, we will leave opportunities for alternatives. We will not become enthusiastic for the fact, the knowledge, the absolute truth of the day, but remain always uncertain … In order to make progress, one must leave the door to the unknown ajar.” – Richard Feynman

Number of the Week: 11,000 & 1,600

Dynamics in the Tropics: In 2017, Judith Curry retired from her tenured position as a professor at the School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences at the Georgia Institute of Technology, where she had been Chair of the department, to focus on her private firm, Climate Forecasts Applications, citing the “craziness” of the field of climate science and the great politization of research funding. She has long recognized that there are major problems in the field, particularly in the dynamics of the atmosphere and the oceans in the tropics. As a climate modeler, she has first-hand knowledge of these problems, yet to be solved.

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Weekly Climate and Energy News Roundup #411

By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project

Re-Blogged From WUWT

Quote of the Week: “It is in the admission of ignorance and the admission of uncertainty that there is a hope for the continuous motion of human beings in some direction that doesn’t get confined, permanently blocked, as it has so many times before in various periods in the history of man.” – Richard Feynman, The Meaning of It All: Thoughts of a Citizen-Scientist

Number of the Week: 10% loss

An Inverse? Traditionally in Washington, Fridays are a slow news day and during June reporters, and others, would be leaving early for the beach or for other activities. During the Obama Administration, regulatory agencies often would announce expanded regulations on Fridays giving time over the weekend to assess the response.

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Weekly Climate and Energy News Roundup #411

By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project

Re-Blogged From WUWT

Quote of the Week: “’It is a pleasure to stand upon the shore, and to see ships tost upon the sea: a pleasure to stand in the window of the castle and to see the battle and the adventures thereof below: but no pleasure is comparable to the standing upon the vantage ground of truth (a hill not to be commanded and where the air is always clear and serene), and to see the errors, and wanderings, and mists, and tempests, in the vale below.’ so always that this prospect be with pity, and not with swelling or pride.” – Of Truth, Francis Bacon (1625)

Number of the Week: 140% more than [of] a very small number is still a very small number

Political Rhetoric: Writing in the Wall Street Journal, Todd Myer, the author of “Eco-Fads: How the Rise of Trendy Environmentalism Is Harming the Environment” discusses how certain politicians use the term science without any special meaning. Myer states:

“The word ‘science’ has been hollowed out by politicians, who have stripped it of its substance and power and replaced them with emotional pabulum. These politicians discard the scientific method and deploy the term merely as a weapon against their opponents.”

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The Scientific Case for Vacating the EPA’s Carbon Dioxide Endangerment Finding

From The Competitive Enterprise Institute

Patrick J. Michaels – Re-Blogged From WUWT

View Full Document as PDF

Executive Summary

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) 2009 “Endangerment Finding” from carbon dioxide (CO2) and other greenhouse gases grants the agency a legal mandate that can have profound and far-reaching effects. The Finding is based largely on a Technical Support Document that relies heavily upon other mandated reports, the so-called National Assessments of global climate change impacts on the United States.

The extant Assessments at the time of the Endangerment Finding suffered from serious flaws. We document that using the climate models for the first Assessment, from 2000, provided less quantitative guidance than tables of random numbers—and that the chief scientist for that work knew of this problem.

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Weekly Climate and Energy News Roundup #407

The Week That Was: April 25, 2020

Brought to You by www.SEPP.org

Quote of the Week: “So, first of all, let me assert my firm belief that the only thing we have to fear is…fear itself — nameless, unreasoning, unjustified terror which paralyzes needed efforts to convert retreat into advance.” – Franklin Delano Roosevelt – First Inaugural Address (March 4, 1933)

Number of the Week: 3, 4, & 5

Politics Not Science: The Competitive Enterprise Institute (CEI) published a report by Patrick Michaels and Kevin Dayaratna discussing the critical thinking, or lack thereof, that went into the 2009 EPA finding that carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases endanger public health and welfare – the Endangerment Finding. The finding is largely based on the first and second US national climate assessments produced by what is now called the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP). According to its web site, the legal mandate of the USGCRP is:

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Climate Change – Ebb and Flow of the Tide – Part 3 of 3

By Kelvin Kemm – Re-Blogged From WUWT

Dr Kemm’s complete essay containing all three parts may be found here.

The Pause Century

40. There has been essentially no global warming during the 21st Century. This reality has been called ‘The Pause’ by some, who claim that the real rise in temperature is actually going on, but that for some unexplained reason, has paused for a while.

There is debate about the ‘Pause,’ with some saying that there were gaps in data; the variations are too small to be statistically significant; etc. If this is so, how come climate change enthusiasts have been so utterly certain of their position and their figures for the past 20 years plus.

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Weekly Climate and Energy News Roundup #406

The Week That Was: April 18, 2020, Brought to You by www.SEPP.org

By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project

Quote of the Week: “It is the mark of an educated man to look for precision in each class of things just so far as the nature of the subject admits.” – Aristotle, Nicomachean Ethics [H/t Demetris Koutsoyiannis]

Number of the Week: 2 cents

Limits of Models: In the midst of the lock-down of much of the U.S. public and the collapsing economy; some Americans are learning a few important lessons. One, the country is a republic with a written Constitution. As President Trump realized this week, that Constitution grants the Federal government limited powers, even during a health emergency. And two, numerical models are not infallible. Indeed, almost daily, Drs. Birx and Fauci repeat on television that: “this model is only as good as the data we put into it.” Speculation, scenarios or projections, may be interesting but must be supported by evidence fitting the issue. Unfortunately, all too frequently government policy has been based on models using inappropriate data.

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Climate Change – Ebb and Flow of the Tide –Part 2 of 3

By Dr Kelvin Kemm – Re-Blogged From WUWT

Continued from Part 1

Emotional, agenda-driven politics confronts sound, evidence-based science

The topic of global warming and climate change is far more scientifically complex than the public is led to believe.

Myriads of newspaper, magazine and TV items over decades have tended to simplify the science to the point at which the general public believes that it is all so simple that any fool can see what is happening. Public groups often accuse world leaders and scientists of being fools, if they do not instantly act on simple messages projected by individuals or public groups.

One often hears phrases like: ‘The science is settled.’ It is not. Even more worrying is that the reality of the correct science is actually very different to much of the simple public perception.

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Weekly Climate and Energy News Roundup #403

The Week That Was: March 21, 2020, Brought to You by www.SEPP.org

By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)

Quote of the Week: “There must be no barriers to freedom of inquiry… There is no place for dogma in science… And we know that as long as men are free to ask what they must, free to say what they think, free to think what they will, freedom can never be lost, and science can never regress.” – J. Robert Oppenheimer [H/t Paul Redfern]

Number of the Week: 365.2422 days.

Fiasco in the Making? Writing in Stat, epidemiologist John Ioannidis of Stanford University emphasizes the need for solid data to address the coronavirus disease, Covid-19. Ioannidis is co-director of Stanford’s Meta-Research Innovation Center, which is dedicated to improving the quality of scientific studies in biomedicine. He writes:

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How Much Human-Caused Global Warming Should We Expect?

By Andy May – Re-Blogged From WUWT

OMG! The world is going to end, and we caused it. This story, in one form or another, goes back to biblical times. According to Genesis (6:9 to 9:17) God decided that humans had sinned too much and must be punished, so he called up a great flood to destroy the world. A similar story also appears in the earlier Epic of Gilgamesh. End of the world predictions are very popular and recur regularly in human history.

More recently, prognosticators have predicted climate change disasters that are due to human actions (sins?). During the Little Ice Age (see Figure 3 in the link), the European public blamed the cold weather on witches and Jews, over 50,000 “witches” and tens of thousands of Jews were killed because they supposedly caused the cold weather and glacial advances. Thus, the idea that humans somehow control climate change is very old. We have no more proof that this is the case today than people had in 800AD, which is about when Archbishop Agobard of Lyons, France said:

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On UK Climate Policies

By Neil Lock – Re-Blogged From WUWT

“I’d expect that some probing by independent experts into the economic calculations, and the assumptions on which they are built, might bear fruit.” But where are these calculations, and who are the unbiased experts who have quality controlled them? I couldn’t find any such calculations, or the names of any such experts. Perhaps, I thought, I’d better take a look at this myself.

So, I set out to learn as much as I could about the economic calculations which – so we’re supposed to believe – justify the extreme measures proposed, all the way up to total de-carbonization of the UK economy, to avoid alleged catastrophic damage from global warming. This essay is the result of that exercise. If it reads like a cross between a layman’s guide to the economics of global warming and a political rant, that’s because it’s both!

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Weekly Climate and Energy News Roundup #402

The Week That Was: March 7 / 14, 2020, Brought to You by www.SEPP.org

By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project

Quote of the Week: “Aqueous vapor is a blanket, more necessary to the vegetable life of England than clothing is to man. Remove for a single summer-night the aqueous vapor from the air which overspreads this country, and you would assuredly destroy every plant capable of being destroyed by a freezing temperature. The warmth of our fields and gardens would pour itself unrequited into space, and the sun would rise upon an island held fast in the iron grip of frost.” – John Tyndall (Heat: A Mode of Motion, 1861) [H/t William Happer]

Number of the Week: 15,000 parts per million (ppm) v. 400 ppm

Freeman Dyson: When mathematician, physicist, and philosopher Freeman Dyson died on February 28, the world lost an exceptionally brilliant humanist. Writing in the Quadrant, Australian Tony Thomas based his comments, in part, on an extensive interview by philosopher Arnis Rītups in the Latvian Journal Rigas Laiks. The interview gives an indication of the depth and extensive interests of Dyson. It is appropriately subtitled:

“Somehow the universe has a tendency to be as interesting as possible, more and more diverse, more and more interesting.”

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Weekly Climate and Energy News Roundup #399

The Week That Was: February 15, 2020, Brought to You by www.SEPP.org

By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project

Quote of the Week: “”Laws are made for men of ordinary understanding and should, therefore, be construed by the ordinary rules of common sense. Their meaning is not to be sought for in metaphysical subtleties which may make anything mean everything or nothing at pleasure.” —Thomas Jefferson (1823)

Number of the Week: January 1736

 

Future Emissions Down, Climate Sensitivity Up? Writing in American Thinker, Anthony Watts draws attention to a surprising article in one of the climate establishment’s journals, Nature. In that article by Zeke Hausfather and Glen Peters, the authors point out that great increases in carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions are unlikely to take place in the 21st century. Thus, the world will not warm as much as claimed using the standard modeling assumptions common to the global climate models used by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The authors propose that the IPCC modelers moderate their extreme emissions scenario, their storyline.

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Weekly Energy and Climate News Roundup

The Week That Was: February 8, 2020, Brought to You by www.SEPP.org

By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project

Quote of the Week: Judges ought to be more leaned than witty, more reverent than plausible, and more advised than confident. Above all things, integrity is their portion and proper virtue.” – Francis Bacon

Number of the Week: Exceeds in Six of Seven Categories.

Expanding the Orthodoxy: Writing a post on Project Syndicate, Johan Rockström, Lars Heikensten, and Marcia McNutt announced:

“…the Nobel Foundation is hosting its first-ever Nobel Prize Summit, with the theme ‘Our Planet, Our Future,’ in Washington, DC, from April 29 to May 1. The summit – supported by the US National Academy of Sciences, the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, and the Stockholm Resilience Centre/Beijer Institute – will bring together more than 20 Nobel laureates and other experts from around the world to explore the question: What can be achieved in this decade to put the world on a path to a more sustainable, more prosperous future for all of humanity?”

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Weekly Climate and Energy News Roundup #397

The Week That Was: February 1, 2020, Brought to You by www.SEPP.org

By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project

Quote of the Week: “”Facts are stubborn things; and whatever may be our wishes, our inclination, or the dictates of our passions, they cannot alter the state of facts and evidence.” —John Adams (1770)

Number of the Week: 60% Rule

Scientific Integrity: In his 1974 commencement address to graduating students of Caltech, Nobel Laurate in physics and brilliant teacher Richard Feynman chose the topic of “Cargo Cult Science: Some remarks on science, pseudoscience, and learning how to not fool yourself.” He began with:

“During the Middle Ages there were all kinds of crazy ideas, such as that a piece of rhinoceros horn would increase potency. (Another crazy idea of the Middle Ages is these hats we have on today—which is too loose in my case.) Then a method was discovered for separating the ideas—which was to try one to see if it worked, and if it didn’t work, to eliminate it. This method became organized, of course, into science. And it developed very well, so that we are now in the scientific age. It is such a scientific age, in fact, that we have difficulty in understanding how witch-doctors could ever have existed, when nothing that they proposed ever really worked—or very little of it did.”

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Explaining the Discrepancies Between Hausfather et al. (2019) and Lewis&Curry (2018)

[This is a technical analysis of climate models vs observations by an econometrician who helped show that Michael Mann’s “Hockey Stick” was false.  –Bob]

By Ross McKitrick – Re-Blogged From WUWT

Challenging the claim that a large set of climate model runs published since 1970’s are consistent with observations for the right reasons.

Introduction

Zeke Hausfather et al. (2019) (herein ZH19) examined a large set of climate model runs published since the 1970s and claimed they were consistent with observations, once errors in the emission projections are considered. It is an interesting and valuable paper and has received a lot of press attention. In this post, I will explain what the authors did and then discuss a couple of issues arising, beginning with IPCC over-estimation of CO2 emissions, a literature to which Hausfather et al. make a striking contribution. I will then present a critique of some aspects of their regression analyses. I find that they have not specified their main regression correctly, and this undermines some of their conclusions. Using a more valid regression model helps explain why their findings aren’t inconsistent with Lewis and Curry (2018) which did show models to be inconsistent with observations.

Outline of the ZH19 Analysis:

A climate model projection can be factored into two parts: the implied (transient) climate sensitivity (to increased forcing) over the projection period and the projected increase in forcing. The first derives from the model’s Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS) and the ocean heat uptake rate. It will be approximately equal to the model’s transient climate response (TCR), although the discussion in ZH19 is for a shorter period than the 70 years used for TCR computation. The second comes from a submodel that takes annual GHG emissions and other anthropogenic factors as inputs, generates implied CO2 and other GHG concentrations, then converts them into forcings, expressed in Watts per square meter. The emission forecasts are based on socioeconomic projections and are therefore external to the climate model.

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Bush Bull

By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley – Re-Blogged From WUWT

This will be a long posting, because it is necessary to nail the childish myth that global warming caused the bushfires in Australia. The long, severe drought in Australia, culminating in the most extensive bushfires in recent history, ought to have aroused sympathy for the cattle-ranchers who have lost their livestock and the citizens who have lost their homes. But no. Instead, those who profiteer by asserting that global warming is the cause of every extreme-weather event have rushed to state – falsely – that an “overwhelming scientific consensus” (to cite the Greens’ website) blames the incidence, extent, duration and severity of the drought and bushfires on the somewhat warmer weather caused by our having increased the atmospheric CO2 concentration by about 1 part in 10,000 from 0.03% to 0.04% by volume.

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Weekly Climate and Energy News Roundup #393

The Week That Was: January 4, 2020, Brought to You by www.SEPP.org

By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project

Quote of the Week: “And that is what science is: the result of the discovery that it is worthwhile rechecking by new direct experience, and not necessarily trusting the [human] race[’s] experience from the past. I see it that way. – Richard Feynman (1966)

Number of the Week: 14°F – 28°F (8°C – 16°C) Change

Science Is Dynamic, Not Static: As articulated by Richard Feynman, the scientific method is an on-going process of trial and error correction. It is not imposed by any organization or political power. It is a process of evaluating various concepts, ideas, guesses. If the guesses agree with physical evidence, obtained by experiments and / or observations, then they are tentatively accepted. If the guesses do not agree with the physical evidence, then they are changed or discarded. Failure to do so leads to poor science.

Elaborate models always include many assumptions, and computational models produce sets of numerical calculations. For elaborate models, it can be impossible for third parties to evaluate the internal logic, including the validity of the assumptions. Thus, the ability to describe and predict is usually the key for evaluating complex models, such as climate models. For several decades, the US climate models have not been able to correctly describe the atmospheric temperature trends. Thus, there is no logical reason to assume these models can predict changes in trends far into the future. In the formation of government policies, they should be dismissed as having no importance.

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Weekly Climate and Energy News Roundup #392

The Week That Was: December 28, 2019, Brought to You by www.SEPP.org

By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)

Quote of the Week: When asked, what he would tell a generation living 1,000 years from now, Bertrand Russell (1959) replied:

“I should like to say two things, one intellectual and one moral:

“The intellectual thing I should want to say to them is this: When you are studying any matter or considering any philosophy, ask yourself only what are the facts and what is the truth that the facts bear out. Never let yourself be diverted either by what you wish to believe or by what you think would have beneficent social effects if it were believed, but look only and solely at what are the facts. That is the intellectual thing that I should wish to say.” – Bertrand Russell (1959)

Number of the Week: Three-Fold Increase in Fish

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Weekly Climate and Energy News Roundup #391

The Week That Was: December 21, 2019, Brought to You by www.SEPP.org

By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project

Quote of the Week: “Collective fear stimulates herd instinct, and tends to produce ferocity toward those who are not regarded as members of the herd.” ― Bertrand Russell, Unpopular Essays

Number of the Week: 1/1,000,000,000,000 (One part per Trillion)

The Greenhouse Effect – With Clouds: The CO2 Coalition has published a paper by Richard Lindzen addressing climate sensitivity trying to explain why US climate models do so poorly when tested against observations from nature. Until climate models can describe what is occurring in the atmosphere today, there is no reason to accept projections / predictions from such models about the future. Lindzen’s approach to the problem is different from those by Wijngaarden & Happer, and Roy Spencer discussed in the previous two TWTWs.

Among other things, Lindzen includes the influence of high-level cirrus clouds, which form above the tropopause, where water vapor freezes out. As Lindzen states:

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Weekly Climate and Energy News Roundup #390

The Week That Was:, Brought to You by www.SEPP.org

By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)

Quote of the Week: “In general, we look for a new law by the following process. First, we guess it (audience laughter), no, don’t laugh, that’s really true. Then we compute the consequences of the guess, to see what, if this is right, if this law we guess is right, to see what it would imply and then we compare the computation results to nature, or we say compare to experiment or experience, compare it directly with observations to see if it works. [Boldface added.]

“If it disagrees with experiment, it’s wrong. In that simple statement is the key to science. It doesn’t make any difference how beautiful your guess is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are who made the guess, or what his name is… If it disagrees with experiment, it’s wrong. That’s all there is to it.” Richard Feynman on the Scientific Method

Number of the Week: 20 to 30º C (35 to 55º F) warmer

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Weekly Climate and Energy News Roundup #389

The Week That Was: December 7, 2019, Brought to You by www.SEPP.org

By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)

Quote of the Week: The real problem in speech is not precise language. The problem is clear language. The desire is to have the idea clearly communicated to the other person. It is only necessary to be precise when there is some doubt as to the meaning of a phrase, and then the precision should be put in the place where the doubt exists. It is really quite impossible to say anything with absolute precision, unless that thing is so abstracted from the real world as to not represent any real thing.” – Richard Feynman (New Textbooks for the “New” Mathematics)

Number of the Week: Minus 89,000. Down from plus 13,442,000 b/d

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What if There is no Climate Emergency ?

By edmhdotme – Re-Blogged From WUWT

What if there is no Catastrophic Risk from Man-made Global Warming ?
What if Man-made CO2 emissions are not the “Climate Control Knob” ?
What if Man-made CO2 emissions really are a non-problem ?
But what if there is a real Global Cooling Catastrophe in the offing ?
screenshot-2019-11-20-at-17.57.06

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Weekly Climate and Energy News Roundup #388

The Week That Was: November 30, 2019, Brought to You by www.SEPP.org

By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)

Quote of the Week: “In reading The History of Nations, we find that, like individuals, they have their whims and their peculiarities, their seasons of excitement and recklessness, when they care not what they do. We find that whole communities suddenly fix their minds upon one object and go mad in its pursuit; that millions of people become simultaneously impressed with one delusion, and run after it, till their attention is caught by some new folly more captivating than the first.” –Charles Mackay (1841)

Number of the Week: 63.6% of US electricity.

Yellow Turned Green? In the late 1800s, particularly in New York City, competition for circulation between Joseph Pulitzer’s New York World and William Randolph Hearst’s New York Journal led to an era known as yellow journalism, where the newspapers presented little or no legitimate, well-researched news and relied upon eye-catching headlines, exaggerations of news events, scandal-mongering, or outright sensationalism to increase sales. How the term originated is in dispute, but the characteristics of the journalism are not. These include scare headlines in huge print, often of minor news, extensive use of dramatic pictures, or imaginary drawings, misleading headlines, pseudoscience, and false knowledge from so-called experts.

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Weekly Energy and Climate News Roundup #387

By Ken Haapala, President of SEPP – Re-Blogged From WUWT

Quote of the Week: “We know what’s happening now. It’s the past that keeps changing.” – Old Russian Joke

Number of the Week: 110 million people now drowning?

THIS WEEK:

By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)

Grim Future? Historical discussions of the human condition reveal that humans tend to identify themselves as members of like-minded groups. As discussed in the June 1 TWTW, in his farewell address, George Washington called such groups “factions.” Christopher Booker identified the common thinking of such factions as groupthink. In a post on his web site discussing Climategate, Roy Spencer addresses this issue stating that one of the few scientists who changed their mind after Climategate was Judith Curry: “She is now a well-informed and unabashed skeptic of the modern tendency to blame every bad weather event on humans.” He goes on to write:

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Weekly Climate and Energy News Roundup #379

The Week That Was: October 5, 2019, Brought to You by www.SEPP.org

By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project

Quote of the Week – “Man, once surrendering his reason, has no remaining guard against absurdities the most monstrous, and like a ship without rudder, is the sport of every wind. With such persons, gullibility, which they call faith, takes the helm from the hand of reason and the mind becomes a wreck.” —Thomas Jefferson (1822)

Number of the Week: Almost 64%


 

Contradiction in Studies: The latest report of the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Changes, The Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate, contains many dire warnings of alarming sea level rise from oceans warming much faster than “previously thought” and Polar Ice melting much faster than “previously thought.” Of course, who “previously thought” what is not clear, though the word previously surely refers to a time when the “science was settled.”

In the approved Summary for Policymakers of the IPCC study are numerous graphs showing dire sea level rise of almost 5.5 meters (18 feet) by 2300 – 280 years from now.

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Noble Cause Corruption

By Dr Paul Rossiter – Re-Blogged From WUWT

In an earlier posting (WUWT https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/09/26/understanding-the-climate-movement-the-impotence-of-science/) I referred to the work of Douglas Murray (The Madness of Crowds) in helping to understand how the climate debate was just a Trojan horse being exploited for a much wider social change agenda being pursued by globalists and the socialist Left. In that article I alluded to some of the drivers that are enabling the movement, including Noble Cause Corruption and personal or corporate financial gain. Here I explore further the role of Noble Cause Corruption. While regular followers of WUWT will be familiar with some of the content, I think that pulling it together makes a compelling case.

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Weekly Climate and Energy News Roundup #378

The Week That Was: September 28, 2019, Brought to You by www.SEPP.org

By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)

Quote of the Week – “Sometimes people hold a core belief that is very strong. When they are presented with evidence that works against that belief, the new evidence cannot be accepted. It would create a feeling that is extremely uncomfortable, called cognitive dissonance. And because it is so important to protect the core belief, they will rationalize, ignore and even deny anything that doesn’t fit in with the core belief.”— Frantz Fanon, French West Indian psychiatrist, political philosopher, revolutionary, [H/t William Readdy]

Number of the Week: 30% fewer labor hours


 

UN Children’s Climate Circus: The conditions for most of the world’s population are improving significantly. Although wars are ongoing, there is no major world war, killing millions. There are no major famines, other than those created by government policies. World grain reserves are full, and production is increasing greatly in tropical countries, which were once considered too hot, with too thin, too acidic soils to be major grain producers. There is still much to do, particularly in Africa, South America and Asia, but, based on the World Bank. the numbers of people living in extreme poverty are declining significantly, with major reductions in Asia. So based on mathematical computer models, the UN and many international organizations are declaring we are in a “climate crisis” – based on projections of the future that are not validated by physical evidence today.

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Weekly Climate and Energy News Roundup #377

The Week That Was: September 21, 2019, Brought to You by www.SEPP.org

By Ken Haapala, President,The Science and Environmental Policy Project

Quote of the Week – “When in doubt, always tell the truth. It will confuse your enemies and astound your friends!”—Mark Twain [H/t Will Happer]

Number of the Week: 250 Outlets

Climate Model Inflation: According to the “Centre national de la recherche scientifique”, a French government entity billed as the largest governmental research organisation in France and the largest fundamental science agency in Europe, climate models have been underestimating the worst case for an increase in temperatures from a doubling of carbon dioxide (CO2). In a news release it announced:

“The international climate science community is undertaking an extensive programme of numerical simulations of past and future climates. Its conclusions will contribute significantly to part one of the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report, which is expected to be published in 2021. The French scientists involved in the work, in particular at the CNRS, the CEA and Météo-France, were the first to submit their contributions, and they have now revealed the broad outlines of their findings. Specifically, their new models predict that warming by 2100 will be more severe than forecast in earlier versions. They are also making progress in describing climate at the regional level.

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Weekly Climate and Energy News Roundup #376

The Week That Was: September 14, 2019, Brought to You by www.SEPP.org

By Ken Haapala, President, The Science and Environmental Policy Project

Quote of the Week – “If by the liberty of the press were understood merely the liberty of discussing the propriety of public measures and political opinions, let us have as much of it as you please: But if it means the liberty of affronting, calumniating and defaming one another, I, for my part, own myself willing to part with my share of it.” —Benjamin Franklin (1789)

Number of the Week: UP 24%


 

Climate Model Issues – Greenhouse Feedbacks: Prior to the 1979 Charney Report, numerous laboratory experiments established that a doubling of carbon dioxide (CO2) would cause a modest increase in global temperatures, nothing of great concern. The Charney Report states that advocates of global climate models, mainly NASA-GISS and NOAA’s Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory at Princeton advocated that a positive feedback, mainly from water vapor from the oceans would result in a far greater warming, which was estimated to be 3º C plus or minus 1.5º C. The last paragraph of the report, Section 4 – Models and Their Validity states:

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Weekly Climate and Energy News Roundup #375

The Week That Was: September 7, 2019, Brought to You by www.SEPP.org

By Ken Haapala, President, The Science and Environmental Policy Project

Quote of the Week “In God we trust, all others bring data”. – Motto of the Apollo Team and the Johnson Space Flight Center

Number of the Week: 5.5 million sq. km (2.1 million sq. mi.)

Long Overdue – Prediction Capability: Of the about 50 newspapers and web sites TWTW reviews weekly, only the UK Global Warming Policy Forum (GWPF) mentioned an August 30 White House memorandum that may become important. The memorandum “Fiscal Year 2021 Administration Research and Development Budget Priorities” was signed by Russell Vought, Acting Director of the Office of Management and Budget, and Kelvin Droegemeier, Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy. A key paragraph reads:

Earth System Predictability: Knowing the extent to which components of the Earth system are practicably predictable – from individual thunderstorms to long-term global change- is vitally important for physical understanding of the Earth system, assessing the value of prediction results, guiding Federal investments, developing effective policy, and improving predictive skill. Departments and agencies should prioritize R&D that helps quantify Earth system predictability across multiple phenomena, time, and space scales. Strategic coordination and leveraging of resources across agencies on research and modeling efforts is needed to accelerate progress in this area. Additionally, agencies should emphasize how measures of and limits to predictability, both theoretical and actual, can inform a wide array of stakeholders. They also should explore the application of AI and adaptive observing systems to enhance predictive skill, along with strategies for obtaining substantial improvements in computational model performance and spatial resolution across all scales. [Boldface added.]

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Weekly Climate and Energy News Roundup #374

The Week That Was: August 31, 2019, Brought to You by www.SEPP.org

By Ken Haapala, The Science and Environmental Policy Project

Quote of the Week: What I cannot create, I do not understand. – Richard Feynman

Number of the Week: 6,000 times more accuracy needed!


Nothing New in AGW: David Whitehead briefly reviews several new studies which demonstrate where and how Global Climate Models are failing. The first one listed, in Science Mag, discusses how humans have been changing the face of the Earth for up to 10,000 years. There is a large project underway, ArchaeoGLOBE, which is gathering data and various areas of the globe, to include change of land use from agriculture be it animal husbandry or farming. Archaeologists have discovered that humans have modified corn for some 10,000 years.

The ArchaeoGLOBE Project was based on a questionnaire to more than 200 archaeologists with 10 distinct time points from 10,000 years ago to 1850. Data were collected for four land use categories: foraging, hunting, gathering and fishing. Such work might provide valuable information on how humans affected different regions of the globe, and what tools were used. Also, the study dispels the common notion than human impact on climate did not start until about 1850, so human impact on nature and climate is nothing new.

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More Fake Five-Alarm Crises from the IPCC

By Paul Driessen – Re-Blogged From WUWT

Efforts to stampede the USA and world into forsaking fossil fuels and modern farming continue apace.

“Mainstream” news outlets dutifully feature climate cataclysm claims that have no basis in reality

UN and other scientists recently sent out news releases claiming July 2019 was the “hottest month ever recorded on Earth” – nearly about 1.2 degrees C (2.2 degrees F) “above pre-industrial levels.” That era happens to coincide with the world’s emergence from the 500-year Little Ice Age. And “ever recorded” simply means measured; it does not include multiple earlier eras when Earth was much warmer than now.

Indeed, it is simply baseless to suppose that another few tenths of a degree (to 1.5 C above post-Little Ice Age levels) would somehow bring catastrophe to people, wildlife, agriculture and planet. It is equally ridiculous to assume all recent warming has been human-caused, with none of it natural or cyclical.

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Weekly Climate and Energy News Roundup #373

The Week That Was: August 24, 2019, Brought to You by www.SEPP.org

By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project

Quote of the Week: “I learned very early the difference between knowing the name of something and knowing something.” ― Richard P. Feynman

Number of the Week: 116 Stations

August Fad II – Amazon Burning: Some organizations considered scientific are feeding the popular press with highly dubious claims. Last week, TWTW discussed NOAA’s claim that July 2019 “was the hottest month measured on Earth since records began in 1880.” The record is highly questionable. Also, other commentators made very appropriate remarks and Tony Heller demonstrated how the process of homogenization distorts the surface record. Also, the comprehensive atmospheric record demonstrates that NOAA’s claims are unfounded. NOAA is losing scientific credibility by making such claims.

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Weekly Climate and Energy News Roundup # 372

The Week That Was August 17, 2019, By Ken Haapala, President SEPP

Brought to You by www.SEPP.org The Science and Environmental Policy Project

Quote of the Week: “There are two ways to be fooled. One is to believe what isn’t true; the other is to refuse to believe what is true.”—Soren Kierkegaard [H/t William Readdy]

Number of the Week: 22 Years

Censorship: Solar physicist Nir Shaviv reluctantly granted science journalist Doron Levin an interview, although Shaviv was skeptical that it would be published. A similar interview to a reporter for Bloomberg was reject by its editorial board. Leven assured Shaviv that Forbes would publish the interview online. It did – for a few hours. The interview was an immediate hit. Then, Forbes yanked the report with the statement:

“After review, this post has been removed for failing to meet our editorial standards.

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Weekly Climate and Energy News Roundup #371

The Week That Was: August 10, 2019, Brought to You by www.SEPP.org

By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project

Quote of the Week: ““The aim of science is to seek the simplest explanations of complex facts. We are apt to fall into the error of thinking that the facts are simple because simplicity is the goal of our quest. The guiding motto in the life of every natural philosopher should be, ‘Seek simplicity and distrust it’.”— Alfred North Whitehead [H/t William Readdy]

Number of the Week: $20/kWh vs. $1,250/kWh

High Standards: On his website, Tony Heller frequently posts newspaper articles from the past showing that claims of “unprecedented” heat or cold are not so, at least for the US, where the public has had good weather reporting in the past. In a post presenting the extreme weather and drought experienced in the US during 1934, Heller’s post included an excerpt from the January 1907 Monthly Weather Review which has part of a brief essay by C.A. [TWTW was unable to determine who the writer, C.A., was.] Heller included a link to the entire page and essay. The essay bears repeating. (Edited slightly for understanding.)

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“DON’T ASK HOW TO PAY FOR CLIMATE CHANGE. ASK WHO”… Shouldn’t we ask why first?

By David Middleton – Re-Blogged From WUWT

HENRY FARRELL
SCIENCE
08.02.1909:00 AM
DON’T ASK HOW TO PAY FOR CLIMATE CHANGE. ASK WHO

LAST WEEK, CNN announced plans to host a climate crisis town hall with the Democratic presidential candidates on September 4. MSNBC scheduled a multiday climate change forum with the presidential hopefuls later that month.

In both venues, some version of the perpetual question will undoubtedly be raised: “How will you pay for the costs of dealing with climate change?”

Despite its pervasiveness, this is a profoundly wrongheaded line of inquiry. Asking how to pay for the impact of climate change implies that these costs are a matter of choice. The reality is that global warming will impose massive costs, regardless of whether policymakers respond or not. Thus, the real question is not “How would you propose to pay?” but instead “Who is going to pay?” and “How much?

[…]

Wired

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Weekly Climate and Energy News Roundup #366

The Week That Was: July 6, 2019, Brought to You by www.SEPP.org

By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project

Quote of the Week: “There are some ideas so wrong that only a very intelligent person could believe in them.” – George Orwell [H/t John Dunn]

Number of the Week: 2012

Beauty in Physics: On his web site, The Reference Frame, string theorist Lubos Motl had a long post reporting his search for the terms beautiful, beauty, and pretty in the Feynman Lectures on Physics (1963). Richard Feynman was a co-recipient of the 1965 Nobel Prize in Physics for his work in Quantum Electrodynamics and an exceptional lecturer who insisted on teaching students introductory physics. Perhaps it is his expression of finding exceptional explanations of complex problems beautiful that makes Feynman’s lecturers so memorable. Fortunately, they are available to read online. One of the many examples Molt gives is on Kepler’s laws:

Here are the promised Kepler’s laws.

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Weekly Climate and Energy News Roundup #361

The Week That Was: By Ken Haapala, President, SEPP

Brought to You by www.SEPP.org, The Science and Environmental Policy Project

Quote of the Week: “It is a pleasure to stand upon the shore, and to see ships tost [sic] upon the sea: a pleasure to stand in the window of the castle and to see the battle and the adventures thereof below: but no pleasure is comparable to the standing upon the vantage ground of truth ( a hill not to be commanded and where the air is always clear and serene), and to see the errors, and wanderings, and mists, and tempests, in the vale below. – From Of Truth, Francis Bacon [H/t Numberwatch, hopefully returning]

Number of the Week: 5 million tonnes per annum (MTPA) of LNG, which is equal to about 0.7 billion [standard, normal temperature and pressure] cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) of natural gas

The Greenhouse Effect –Atmospheric Layers: The atmosphere is divided into distinct layers and the altitude of the layers depends on the latitude, the distance from the equator. One could think of an oval shape with the thickest (elongated) part being above the equator. (Seasonal variation will be ignored in this section.)

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Science’s Untold Scandal

When we started our careers, it was considered an honor to be a member of professional societies that helped practitioners keep up with the latest developments in their fields through relevant meetings and publications. Senior author Dr. Jay Lehr had the privilege of leading one of these societies long ago.
Climate Change

(Image by Gerd Altmann from Pixabay)

Weekly Climate and Energy News Roundup #359

The Week That Was: May 11, 2019, Brought to You by www.SEPP.org

By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project

Quote of the Week: “…we have to offer up scary scenarios, make simplified, dramatic statements, and make little mention of any doubts we might have…. Each of us has to decide what the right balance is between being effective and being honest. I hope that means being both.” – Stephen Schneider, Discover, pp. 45–48, October 1989.

Number of the Week: 0.05ºC in 25 years

Honest Science: The full comment by Stephen Schneider in the 1989 interview in Discover magazine, cited above, is:

“On the one hand, as scientists we are ethically bound to the scientific method, in effect promising to tell the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but — which means that we must include all the doubts, the caveats, the ifs, ands, and buts. On the other hand, we are not just scientists but human beings as well. And like most people we’d like to see the world a better place, which in this context translates into our working to reduce the risk of potentially disastrous climatic change. To do that we need to get some broad-based support, to capture the public’s imagination. That, of course, entails getting loads of media coverage. So, we have to offer up scary scenarios, make simplified, dramatic statements, and make little mention of any doubts we might have. This ‘double ethical bind’ we frequently find ourselves in cannot be solved by any formula. Each of us has to decide what the right balance is between being effective and being honest. I hope that means being both.”

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