Fed’s Rocket Ship Turns Hoverboard

B Peter Schiff – Re-Blogged From Euro Pacific Capital

Over the past year, while the U.S. economy has continually missed expectations, Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen has assured all who could stay awake during her press conferences that it was strong enough to withstand tighter monetary policy. In delivering months of mildly tough talk (with nothing in the way of action), Yellen began stressing that WHEN the Fed would finally raise rates (for the first time in almost a decade) was not nearly as important as how fast and how high  the increases would be once they started. Not only did this blunt the criticism of those who felt that the delays were unnecessary, and in fact dangerous, but it also began laying the groundwork for the Fed to do nothing over a much longer time period. To the delight of investors, the Fed has telegraphed that it will adopt a “low and slow” trajectory for the foreseeable future and move, in the words of Larry Kudlow, like “an injured snail.”

I would suggest that Kudlow is a bit aggressive. I believe that if the Fed raises rates by 25 basis points next week, as everyone expects it will, that the move will likely represent the END of the tightening cycle, not the beginning. (As I explained in my last commentary, the current tightening cycle actually started more than two years ago when the Fed began shortening its forward guidance on Quantitative Easing). The expected rate hike this month has long been referred to as “liftoff” for the Fed, an image that suggests the very beginning of a process that eventually puts a spacecraft into orbit. But, in this case, liftoff will be far less dramatic. I believe the Fed’s rocket to nowhere will hover above the launch pad for a considerable period of time before ultimately falling back down to Earth.

Continue reading

Failure to Launch

By Peter Schiff – Re-Blogged From Euro Pacific Capital

The popular belief that the U.S. economy has been steadily recovering has endured months of disappointing data without losing much of its appeal. A deep bench of excuses, ranging from the weather to the Chinese economy, has been called on to justify why the economy hasn’t built up any noticeable steam, and why the Fed has failed to move rates off zero, where they have been for seven years. But the downright dismal September jobs report that was released last Friday may prove to be the flashing red beacon that even the most skilled apologists can’t explain away. The report should make it abundantly clear that we are far closer to recession than recovery. But old notions die hard and, shockingly, most economists still believe that we have hit a temporary speed bump not a brick wall. But at some point healthy hope turns into dangerous delusion. We may have just turned that corner.
The report was horrific any way you slice it. The consensus of economists had expected to see 203,000 new jobs in September, not a particularly impressive number, but at least it would have been an improvement from the 173,000 new jobs that were added in August. Not only did September miss substantially, at just 142,000 jobs, but August was revised down to 136,000 (Bureau of Labor Statistics) (there were economists who had even expected August to be revised up to as high 247,000). This means that the last three months have averaged just 167,000 jobs, a level that is not even close to where we should have been in a real recovery. But it gets worse from there.

Continue reading

The Fed’s Alice In Wonderland Economy – What Happens Next?

By Nick Giambruno – Re-Blogged From http://www.Gold-Eagle.com

After the President of the United States, the most powerful person on the planet is the Chairman of the Federal Reserve.

Ask almost anyone on the street for the name of the US president, and you’ll get a quick answer. But if you ask the same person what the Federal Reserve is, you’ll likely get a blank stare.

They don’t know – partly due to the institutions deliberately obscure name – that the Fed is really the third iteration of the country’s central bank. Or that the Fed manipulates the nation’s economic destiny by controlling the money supply.

And that’s just how the Fed likes it. They’d prefer Boobus americanus not understand the king-like power they wield.

Continue reading

US Stock Bubble Bursting As The US Fed Begins To Shrink Its Balance Sheet

By IM Vronsky – Re-Blogged From http://www.Gold-Eagle.com

All serious students of economics well know there are several factors that can inflate stock values…and even cause them to soar beyond common sense and corresponding fundamentals. However, there is one factor that dwarfs all others in its disproportionate material effect on pumping up stock prices beyond all historical and reasonable metrics:  AND THAT IS EXCESSIVE GROWTH IN THE FED’S BALANCE SHEET. 

One must recall that the S&P500 Stock Index suffered a bear market loss from 2007-2008…including the first two months of 2009.  During this bear market the S&P500 plunged well more than 55% by the time it finally bottomed in first week of March 2009.  Subsequently, the Fed relentlessly pumped up its Balance Sheet…with a view to stem the horrific two year rout in US stock prices.

Continue reading

Price-Fixing at the Fed: Global Implosion Is Served?

By Ed Bugos – Re-Blogged From The Dollar Vigilante

The Fed has not raised rates for over seven years now – an unheard of amount of time. It has practically abolished interest rates for the first time ever. The distortions that have been built into the larger marketplace are coiled now like a spring, ready to unwind with a fantastically destructive impact.

How did we get to this point anyway? Why do people accept the idea that a handful of men and women dining on fine food in a series of expensive hotel suites and meeting rooms have the power and knowledge to “fix” the price of credit, manipulate the amount of money, and regulate the value of the world’s reserve currency? Why should anyone have this power?

What should be evident is that the Fed’s central bankers are not free to make an unimpeded decision. They are haunted by the mistakes of the past. Low rates of the late 1990s led to the tech crash of 2001. Low sustained rates of the early and mid 2000s led to the subprime crash of 2008 that echoed around the world.

Continue reading

Fed’s ‘Recovery’ Hoax Takes A Pounding

By Rick Ackerman – Re-Blogged From http://www.Silver-Phoenix500.com

It’s always refreshing to see the stock market get the crap kicked out of it, even if it will take a 10,000-point fall in the Dow to cast out the thieves, thimble-riggers, broad-tossers, carny men, grifters, mountebanks and child molesters who have ruled the global banking system for the last umpteen years. The sleazeballs tried to run up stocks yesterday on the latest Fed ‘news’ — and what a shocker it was!  Seems that the ‘done deal’ calling for tightening in September has been undone yet again. Surprise, surprise. We have stuck to our guns on this one, shouting from the rooftops for the last two years that the Fed will NEVER raise rates.

Continue reading

Bubbles Never Pop Painlessly

By Michael Pento – Re-Bloged From http://www.Goldd-Eagle.com

Investors are obsessed over predicting the timing of the Fed’s first interest rate hike. Will it raise the Fed Funds rate in September, or wait until next year? But it is far more important to get a grasp on the pace of rate hikes. Will it be a one and done move, or does this mark the beginning of an incremental tightening cycle?  Those of us who are not in the inner circle are forced to only speculate.

But one thing is certain: If history is any guide, whatever they do the Fed will get it wrong.  Most market commentators place unfounded belief in the Fed’s acumen. But the truth is: I wouldn’t trust the Fed to tell me what the weather is going to do in the next 30 seconds–even if they were looking out the window.

Continue reading

The Warren Buffett Economy——Why Its Days Are Numbered (Part 4)

By David Stockman – Re-Blogged From http://davidstockmanscontracorner.com

….As reviewed in Part 3, the very idea that 12 people sitting on the FOMC can adroitly manipulate an economic ether called “aggregate demand” by means of falsifying market interest rates is a bad joke when in it comes to that part of “potential GDP” comprised of goods production capacity. In today’s world of open trade and massive excess industrial capacity, the Fed can do exactly nothing to cause the domestic steel industry’s capacity utilization rate to be 90% or 65%.

Continue reading

Repatriation of Gold from Fed Vaults Is Historic Vote of No Confidence

By Seth Mason – Re-Blogged From https://www.soundmoneydefense.org

Since 2012, there’s been an unprecedented call from foreign nations to repatriate their gold from Federal Reserve vaults in the U.S. This is an incredible development given many countries’ 71-year reliance on the Fed as a custodian for their bullion.

Foreign nations are demanding their gold back from Janet Yellen’s Federal Reserve.

Over the last few years, countries including, but not limited to, Germany, the Netherlands, France, Belgium, Austria, Poland, Ecuador, Finland, Switzerland, Venezuela, and Romania have either formally requested repatriation of their gold or are in discussions with the Fed about it.

Continue reading

Did The Fed Just Admit to Deep Uncertainty About Our Financial Security In Retirement?

By Daniel R. Amerman, CFA – Re-Blogged From http://danielamerman.com

Generally speaking, the chairperson of the Federal Reserve is treated by the mainstream financial media as being the very paragon of respectability. If the Fed says it – then the voice of economic authority has spoken, and we need to listen carefully.

Yet, recent comments by Janet Yellen have instead made her a source of “controversial” economic ideas, with some financial reporters and their editors apparently feeling a duty to protect their reading audience – and let them know this is not acceptable economic thinking, but rather is “far outside the mainstream.”

Continue reading