Why Trillion Dollar Deficits Are Coming Back Soon

By David Stockman – Re-Blogged From Stockman’s Contra Corner

Yesterday I noted that the frogs of Wall Street linger in the boiling pot because they are under the delusion that stocks are cheap based on the sell-side hockey sticks that always show $135 per share of S&P earnings and a 15X multiple in the next year ahead. Besides that, should anything go awry with the economy, Washington purportedly stands ready to bail-out the stock market with a new round of fiscal stimulus after the election.

The latter delusion brings to mind what might be called the “CBO hockey stick”, which is a fiscal fantasy so unhinged from reality as to make the Wall Street stock analysts look like models of sobriety by comparison. To wit, CBO’s latest 10-year budget projection assumes that the US economy will hit full employment next year, and remain there with nary a bump or recession in sight through September 2026, at least.

Well, now. Don’t bother to say Rosy Scenario move over because the arithmetic of CBO’s fantasy speaks for itself. That is, it is advising Washington to relax——we are heading for 207 straight months without a recession. And not in the next world, but this.

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Sell The Bonds, Sell The Stocks, Sell The House —–Dread The Fed!

By David Stockman – Re-Blogged From http://www.DavidStockmansContraCorner.com

There is going to be carnage in the casino, and the proof lies in the transcript of Janet Yellen’s press conference. She did not say one word about the real world; it was all about the hypothetical world embedded in the Fed’s tinker toy model of the US economy.

Yes, tinker toys are what kids used to play with back in the 1950s and 1960s, and that’s when Janet acquired her school-girl model of the nation’s economy.

But since that model is so frightfully primitive, mechanical, incomplete, stylized and obsolete, it tells almost nothing of relevance about where the markets and economy now stand; or what forces are driving them; or where they are headed in the period just ahead.

In fact, Yellen’s tinker toy model is so deficient as to confirm that she and her posse are essentially flying blind. That alone should give investors pause—-especially because Yellen confessed explicitly that “monetary policy is an exercise in forecasting”.

Accordingly, her answers were riddled with ritualistic reminders about all the dashboards, incoming data and economic system telemetry that the Fed is vigilantly monitoring. But all that minding of everybody else’s business is not a virtue—-its proof that Yellen is the ultimate Keynesian catechumen.

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The Declining Interest Rate Cap

By Alasdair Macleod – Re-Blogged From http://www.Silver-Phoenix500.com

Believe it or not, one of the topics in economics that confuses macroeconomists is the actual role of interest rates. For the most part they just assume that an interest rate is the cost of money, the price of money, or even the transfer of the fruits of production from producers to idle capitalists. This last assumption appears to have been Keynes’s motivation for his dislike of savers, or rentiers as he disparagingly labelled them. The thought that workers slave for a master who then pays interest to capitalists energises Marxism as well.

In a free market, consumption comes in two basic forms: that which is consumed today, and that which is postponed into the future. Deferred consumption is saving, and Keynes’s target was the saver, even “looking forward to the rentier’s euthanasia” as he put it in his General Theory.

Denying Say’s Law or the law of the markets allowed Keynes, in his own mind anyway, to replace the saver with the state as the principal source of funding for industrial investment. That he came to this conclusion can only be the result of moral principles unsupported by reasoned theory. But once you launch yourself down what amounts to the slipway of prejudice, there is no knowing where it will all end. In Keynes’s case, it produced a following which has become the mainspring of today’s macroeconomic mainstream. We play this down, commonly saying that the reason for discouraging saving is to encourage current consumption. This is an error, and everyone who utters this knows or should know it. All Keynes’s work, from his Tract on Monetary Reform onwards hints at his true desire, to eliminate idle savers as an economic factor.

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Greece Enters Its Crack-Up Boom

By John Rubino – Re-Blogged From http://www.DollarCollapse.com

The Austrian School of economics has a concept called a “crack-up boom” in which a critical mass of people conclude that their government is actively trying to devalue its currency.

Consumers respond by front-running the government, spending their paychecks immediately in order to convert their soon-to-be-less-valuable money into real things. Merchants, not happy about the sudden influx of suspect currency (and sensing the panic of their customers) hold out for ever-higher prices, causing inflation to spike. But it’s a special kind of inflation, driven not by a sudden increase in the money supply but by collapsing confidence among holders of the currency.

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Let’s Blame The Savers

By Michael Pento – Re-Blogged From http://www.Gold-Eagle.com

Just like in the world of fashion, economic terminologies come in and out of vogue. One such economic term trending recently is Secular Stagnation.   First proposed by Keynesian economist Alvin Hansen back in the 1930s, Secular Stagnation was coined to explain America’s dismal economic performance—in which sluggish growth and employment levels were well below potential.

The term is now back in style thanks to the likes of the contemporary heroes of Keynesian economics, like Larry Summers and Paul Krugman; and is based on the notion that a chronic savings glut has resulted in the economy operating well below potential.

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