Fed Gooses Gold Price And Miners

By Adam Hamilton – Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle

The dovish Federal Reserve lit a fire under gold and its miners’ stocks this week.  As universally expected the FOMC hiked rates for the 9th time in this cycle.  But it also lowered its 2019 rate-hike outlook bowing to the stock-market selloff.  Traders dumped gold initially thinking that wasn’t dovish enough.  But market reactions to the FOMC form over a couple days, and gold surged overnight.  Its post-Fed rally has great potential.

Gold-futures speculators dominate gold’s short-term trading action.  They punch way above their weight in capital terms thanks to the extreme leverage inherent in gold futures.  This week, the minimum margin for trading each 100-ounce contract controlling $125,000 worth of gold at $1250 was just $3400!  These traders can run crazy maximum leverage as high as 36.8x, compared to the stock markets’ legal limit of 2x.

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Will Debt Leverage Gold Even More?

By Arkadiusz Sieron – Re-Blogged From http://www.Gold-Eagle.com

Attention, please! The leverage in the stock market has been recently rising. As one can see in the chart below, the stock market margin debt surged more than $113 billion in 2017, one of the largest annual surges. Moreover, it was the ninth annual increase in a row.

Chart 1: Stock Market Margin Debt (in $ billions) from February 2010 to January 2018.

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2018: The Year Of The Margin Call

By John Rubino – Re-Blogged From Dollar Collapse

Analysts disagree about which indicator is best for calling market tops, but the easiest to understand — and the most tragic — is probably margin debt.

This is money borrowed by (usually individual or “retail”) investors against their existing stocks to buy more stocks. Investors tend to do this when markets are rising and using leverage seems like an effortless way turbocharge their gains. But eventually the market turns down, leaving stock portfolios insufficient to cover related margin debt and generating “margin calls” in which brokers demand more money and/or start liquidating customer portfolios. This sends the market down sharply and indiscriminately, as fairly-valued babies are dumped along with overvalued bathwater. The result: a quick, brutal bear market.

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Gold Miners’ Q3’17 Fundamentals

By Adam Hamilton – Re-Blogged From http://www.Gold-Eagle.com

The gold miners’ stocks have spent months adrift, cast off in the long shadow of the Trumphoria stock-market rally. This vexing consolidation has left a wasteland of popular bearishness. But once a quarter earnings season arrives, bright fundamental sunlight dispelling the obscuring sentiment fogs. The major gold miners’ just-reported Q3’17 results prove this sector remains strong fundamentally, and super-undervalued.

Four times a year publicly-traded companies release treasure troves of valuable information in the form of quarterly reports. Companies trading in the States are required to file 10-Qs with the US Securities and Exchange Commission by 45 calendar days after quarter-ends. Canadian companies have similar requirements. In other countries with half-year reporting, many companies still partially report quarterly.

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Stock Markets Sit Blithely on a Powerful Time Bomb

By Wolf Richter – Re-Blogged From Wolf Street

No one knows the full magnitude, but it’s huge.

How big is margin debt really, and how much of a threat is it to the stock market and to “financial stability,” as central banks like to call their concerns about crashes? Turns out, no one really knows.

What we do know: Margin debt, as reported monthly by the New York Stock Exchange, spiked to another record high of $528 billion. But it’s only part of the total outstanding margin debt – which is when investors borrow money from their broker, pledging their portfolio as collateral.

An example of unreported margin debt: Robo-advisory Wealthfront, a so-called fintech startup overseeing nearly $6 billion, announced that it would offer its clients loans against their portfolios.

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Wall Street And Bear Scat

By Mark J Lundeen – Re-Blogged From http://www.Gold-Eagle.com

As seen in the Bear’s Eye View (BEV) chart below, the last all-time high for the Dow Jones Index happened on March 1st.  Since then however, it’s been slowly deflating.  The post-election run up in the Dow Jones (enclosed in the Red Circle) was an excellent advance; one of the best in the post March 2009 market.  So we shouldn’t begrudge the bulls should they now take a rest before their next upward assault on the stock market, which I’m sure they are planning.  However, some plans never get past their conception stage.

I like this BEV chart for the Dow Jones.  It displays each advance and percentage decline of the Dow from its 09 March 2009 bottom (6,547) to its last all-time high of 01 March 2017 (21,115.55).  The typical correction was a little over 5%, with only four double digit declines (none greater than 17%) since March 2009.

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Record Gold/Silver Shorting

By Adam Hamilton – Re-Bloged From http://www.ZealLLC.com

The miserable summer for precious metals grinds on, with both gold and silver limping along near major lows.  Such dismal price action has exacerbated the extreme bearishness long plaguing this sector, sparking even more capitulation.  But this incredible weakness will be short-lived, as it was driven by American futures speculators’ record short selling.  That will soon reverse into guaranteed, proportional buying.

In all markets including precious metals, price is rightfully considered the most-important fundamental signal.  Prevailing price levels are set by free-market buying and selling until supply and demand meet.  And gold and silver prices are exceptionally weak, with these despised precious metals slumping down to challenge major new 5.2-year and 5.4-year lows this week.  So their fundamentals must be bearish, right?

The only fundamental factors that can drive prices near major secular lows are too much supply, too little demand, or some combination of the two.  And if the gold and silver markets are as oversupplied as their prices indicate, they’re likely to keep drifting lower indefinitely.  This popular bearish thesis is universally believed today, with virtually no dissent.  There aren’t many contrarians left to combat this overpowering groupthink.

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