SOLAR CYCLE UPDATE

Re-Blogged From Space Weather

NOAA has released a new interactive tool to explore the solar cycle. It lets you scroll back through time, comparing sunspot counts now to peaks and valleys of the past. One thing is clear. Solar Minimum is here, and it’s one of the deepest in a century.


Click to explore almost 300 years of sunspot counts

Solar Minimum is a natural part of the solar cycle. Every ~11 years, the sun transitions from high to low activity and back again. Solar Maximum. Solar Minimum. Repeat. The cycle was discovered in 1843 by Samuel Heinrich Schwabe, who noticed the pattern after counting sunspots for 17 years. We are now exiting Solar Cycle 24 and entering Solar Cycle 25.

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25 for 25

By David Archibald – Re-Blogged From WUWT

Back on March 7, 2006, the National Science Foundation issued a press release predicting that the amplitude of Solar Cycle 24 would be “30 to 50 percent stronger” than Solar Cycle 23. Solar Cycle 23 had a smoothed maximum amplitude of 180.3. The press release described the forecast as “unprecedented”. Perhaps it was as in unprecedentedly wrong. Solar Cycle 24 had a smoothed maximum amplitude of 116.4 in April 2014, which made it 35% weaker than Solar Cycle 23.

NASA has recycled some of the language from that 2006 press release in this release on NASA researcher Irina Kitiashvili’s forecast of Solar Cycle 25 amplitude which includes this line:

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The Real Climate Crisis Is Not Global Warming, It Is Cooling

By Allan MacRae and Joseph D’Aleo – Re-Blogged From WUWT

Introduction – Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global Warming – A Failed Hypothesis

The Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global Warming (“CAGW”, aka “Global Warming”, “Climate Change”, “Climate Crisis”, “Climate Emergency”) scare is a failed hypothesis and the greatest scientific fraud in history. Global warming alarmism has been promoted by political extremists and believed in by their gullible acolytes for decades, even though there is no credible evidence that catastrophic global warming exists in reality, and ample evidence that the CAGW hypothesis has been falsified.

The failed CAGW hypothesis assumes that increasing atmospheric CO2 from fossil fuel combustion drives dangerous runaway global warming. The alleged evidence for this fraud is climate computer models that greatly over-predict current observed warming, typically by 300 to 500%. These climate models deliberately employ excessively high assumed values of climate sensitivity to CO2, and are designed to create false alarm.

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Scottish Sunspots

By Willis Eschenbach – Re-Blogged From WUWT

In a recent post, Anthony published Leif Svalgaard’s new paper showing 9,000 years of reconstructed solar activity.

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2018/10/27/svalgaard-paper-reconstruction-of-9000-years-of-solar-activity/embed/#?secret=2dyAExqkss

In the discussion, someone pointed out that the “Maunder Minimum”, a time of very low solar activity, corresponds with the coldest decade in a long-term reconstruction of summer temperatures in Scotland. Their temperature reconstruction is based on a group of pine tree-ring records spanning 800 years. Their graph is shown below:

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Solar Cycle Wave Frequency Linked to Jet Stream Changes

By Francis Tucker Manns, PhD – Re-Blogged From WUWT

It’s not the heat It’s the humidity 

Abstract: The sun controls climate change. Not industry. Not you. Not me. It is the sun.

Solar cycle 24, the weakest in 100 years, is stumbling to an end. The sunspot cycle averages about 11 (± 1.5) years. There may not be any sunspots this week. In the spring of 2017 the sunspot number was low or zero and Canada was plagued with spring floods from melting snow and heavy rainfall.

imageimage

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Approaching ‘Grand Solar Minimum’ Could Cause Global Cooling

By Anthony Watts – Re-Blogged From http://www.WattsUpWithThat.com

There’s a lot of evidence mounting that solar cycle 25 will usher in a new grand solar minimum. Since about October 2005, when the sun’s magnetic activity went into a sharp fall, solar activity has been markedly lower, with solar cycle 24 being the lowest in over 100 years.

Interplanetary magnetic field – Image from NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center

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Forecast for Solar Cycle 25

By James A. Marusek – Re-Blogged From http://www.WattsUpWithThat.com

I. Introduction

The sun is the natural source of heat and light for our planet. Without our sun, the earth would be a cold dead planet adrift in space. But the sun is not constant. It changes and these subtle changes affect the Earth’s climate and weather.

At the end of solar cycle 23, sunspot activity declined to a level not seen since the year 1913. [Comparing Yearly Mean Total Sunspot Numbers1]

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Lindzen, Soon and Spencer debunked?

By Andy May – Re-Blogged From http://www.WattsUpWithThat.com

On Bret Stephens facebook page, I [complimented] Mr. Stephens on what I thought was a very good column. I also noted that the eminent climate scientist Dr. Richard Lindzen had said similar things. To this a George Smith replied, in part, as follows:

“Few “skeptics” have been debunked as much as Lindzen and Spencer.”

Link to comment here.

If you follow the link you will see it is followed with a google search for “Lindzen debunked.” No support, no data, no peer reviewed references, just anything that says “Lindzen debunked.” This is “internet slime” at its worst. We see a lot of this sort of reprehensible behavior around climate science, often by people who have no scientific background at all. But, I am a scientist with 42 years’ experience and have been studying and writing about climate science for years, so I do want to address some of the scurrilous attacks found in this google search.

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Solar Slump: The Sun Was Blank for Two Weeks Straight

[Low sunspot numbers correlate very well with colder times. We have just had 7 higher than average sunspot cycles (11 years each) and temps have been warmer than “usual.” – Bob]

By Anthony Watts – Re-Blogged From http://www.WattsUpWithThat.com

Over the weekend, we reviewed the state of the solar data for March 2017. Now, there’s a two week straight lack of sunspots, the longest stretch since 2010.

A blank look to the sun on Monday, March 20, and it has now been blank for two weeks straight; image courtesy NASA/GSFC

Overview

The sun is currently blank with no visible sunspots and this is the 14th straight day with a blank look which is the longest such stretch since April 2010 according to spaceweather.com. Historically weak solar cycle 24 continues to transition away from its solar maximum phase and towards the next solar minimum. In April 2010 – the last time there was a two week stretch with no visible sunspots –  the sun was emerging from the last solar minimum which was historically long and deep.  There have already been 26 spotless days in 2017 (34% of the entire year) and this follows 32 spotless days last year which occurred primarily during the latter part of the year. The blank look to the sun will increase in frequency over the next couple of years leading up to the next solar minimum – probably to be reached in late 2019 or 2020.  By one measure, the current solar cycle is the third weakest since record keeping began in 1755 and it continues a weakening trend since solar cycle 21 peaked in 1980.  One of the impacts of low solar activity is the increase of cosmic rays that can penetrate into the Earth’s upper atmosphere and this has some important consequences.

Comparison of all solar cycles since 1755 in terms of accumulated sunspot number anomalies from the mean value at this stage of the solar cycle. Plot courtesy publication cited below, authors Frank Bosse and Fritz Vahrenholt

Comparison of all solar cycles since 1755 in terms of accumulated sunspot number anomalies from the mean value at this stage of the solar cycle. Plot courtesy publication cited below, authors Frank Bosse and Fritz Vahrenholt

Third weakest solar cycle since 1755
A recent publication has analyzed the current solar cycle and has found that when sunspot anomalies are compared to the mean for the number of months after cycle start, there have been only two weaker cycles since observations began in 1755.  Solar cycle 24 began in 2008 after a historically long and deep solar minimum which puts us more than eight years into the current cycle.  The plot (above) shows accumulated sunspot anomalies from the mean value after cycle start (97 months ago) and only solar cycles 5 and 6 had lower levels going all the way back to 1755.  The mean value is noted at zero and solar cycle 24 is running 3817 spots less than the mean.  The seven cycles preceded by solar cycle 24 had more sunspots than the mean.

Daily observations of the number of sunspots since 1 January 1900 according to Solar Influences Data Analysis Center (SIDC). The thin blue line indicates the daily sunspot number, while the dark blue line indicates the running annual average. Last day shown: 28 February 2017. (Graph courtesy climate4you.com)

Daily observations of the number of sunspots since 1 January 1900 according to Solar Influences Data Analysis Center (SIDC). The thin blue line indicates the daily sunspot number, while the dark blue line indicates the running annual average. Last day shown: 28 February 2017. (Graph courtesy climate4you.com)

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Britain Heading for Mini ICE AGE Next Year

By Joshua Nevett – Re-Blogged From Daily Star

A “TRIPLE whammy” of freak climate events causing temperatures to plummet will hit the country in 2017, it has been sensationally claimed.

Climate boffins believe the UK’s topsy-turvy climate is in for a chilly twist within the next few years as three major forms of climate change trigger “substantial cooling”.

lan-nina-forecast

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Solar Physicist Sees Global Cooling Ahead

Via the GWPF – Re-Blogged From http://www.WattsUpWithThat.com

Recent research by Professor Valentina Zharkova (Northumbria University) and colleagues has shed new light on the inner workings of the Sun. If correct, this new discovery means that future solar cycles and variations in the Sun’s activity can be predicted more accurately.

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Explaining Climate Forecasting so an 8 Year Old Can Understand it

By Dr Norman Page – Re-Blogged From http://www.WattsUpWithThat.com

 1.  Introduction

Dr. Leif Svalgaard said in a comment on a WUWT post: August 17, 2015 at 2:27 pm    

“If you cannot explain your finding to an [attentive] eight-year old, you don’t understand it yourself.”
I agree entirely.
Miriam – Webster defines Epistemology as
” the study or a theory of the nature and grounds of knowledge especially with reference to its limits and validity “

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Weekly Climate and Energy News Roundup #187

The Week That Was: July 11, 2015 – Brought to You by www.SEPP.org

By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project

Science or Selective Ignorance? In an editorial published in Science magazine on July 3, Marcia McNutt, Editor-in-Chief of the Science Journals, removed all doubt concerning the direction that this once prestigious journal is taking. In “The beyond-two-degree inferno”, she wrote: “The time for debate has ended. Action is urgently needed.” Then, she strongly supports the contrived effort of the European Union to keep “global warming” below 2°C above the preindustrial level – a number for which we have no rigorous measurement or logic. She advocates the political position of the Administration in forcing reductions in carbon dioxide emission (CO2) by stating “The United States has pledged reductions of 26 to 28% below 2005 levels by 2025…” Of course, there is no such pledge by the American people and its representatives in Congress. The Administration’s pledge is arbitrary and authoritarian. Ms. McNutt concludes with a description of the nine circles of Hell found in Dante’s Inferno.

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Weekly Climate and Energy News Roundup #185

The Week That Was: June 27, 2015 – Brought to You by www.SEPP.org

By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project

Delayed Offensive: On June 22, the White House and the EPA announced a new offensive on global warming, now called climate change. “The plan wraps in a handful of federal departments that deal with health, the environment or both, from the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) and the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) to the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).”

The EPA report announcing the plan asserted global warming/climate change a dire threat to the economy and to human health. One of the bolder claims was that up to 57,000 Americans could die per year from poor air quality by 2100, if action is not taken now. “This report summarizes results from the Climate Change Impacts and Risks Analysis (CIRA) project, a peer-reviewed study comparing impacts in a future with significant global action on climate change to a future in which current greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise.”

The EPA fails to establish that “poor air quality” is directly related to human-caused global warming.

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The Iceman Cometh?

By Paul Driessen – Re-Blogged From http://www.WattsUpWithThat.com

Could a quiescent sun portend a new little ice age: a chilly era for humanity and agriculture?

President Obama, Al Gore and other alarmists continue to prophesy manmade global warming crises, brought on by our “unsustainable” reliance on fossil fuels. Modelers like Mike Mann and Gavin Schmidt conjure up illusory crisis “scenarios” based on the assumption that carbon dioxide emissions now drive climate change. A trillion-dollar Climate Crisis industry self-servingly echoes their claims.

But what if these merchants of fear are wrong? What if the sun refuses to cooperate with the alarmists?

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Why Current Climate is Anomaly, and Ice Age Climate is Normal Earth’s Climate

Re-Blogged from TheWatchers.Adorraeli.com

The Ice Age isn’t coming, because it is already here. According to author and researcher Rolf Witzsche the Ice Age Climate is the normal climate for the Earth and it has been for more than 85% of the last million years. Because glaciation has been the normal state of the climate, the glacial epoch has been named Pleistocene Epoch. Our present, nicely warm period is the anomaly in this epic icy landscape. The entire development of what we call civilization has occurred in this climate anomaly.

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Global Warming vs Global Cooling

cropped-bob-shapiro.jpg   By Bob Shapiro

The Sun beats down and warms the Earth.

Except! If the Sun’s rays hit clouds, they are reflected back into space.

But! Water vapor in the sky can’t just condense into clouds. The water vapor needs something to start condensing around. These “condensation nuclei” can be provided from aerosols, like volcanic emissions, salt spray from ocean waves, and fossil fuel burning.

But! There are other natural sources – extra-terrestrial sources – of the condensation nuclei. Danish physicist, Henrik Svensmark, has theorized that Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCR), from the remnants of the

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