2018 Third-Quarter Forecast

Re-Blogged From Stratfor

Table of Contents

(ALY SONG-POL/JOHANNES EISELE/HULTON ARCHIVE/MLADEN ANTONOV/TIMOTHY A. CLARY/ABID KATIB/KATJA BUCHHOLZ/DAVID MCNEW/ATTA KENARE/FOverview

China Remains in the U.S. Crosshairs. The United States will impose tariffs, sanctions and blocks on investment and research in a bid to frustrate China’s development of strategic technologies. China not only has the tools to manage the economic blow, but will also accelerate efforts to lessen its reliance on foreign-sourced technological components.

Trade Battles Fall Short of a Full-Fledged War. Trade frictions will remain high this quarter as the White House continues on an economic warpath in the name of national security. U.S. tariffs will invite countermeasures from trading partners targeting U.S. agricultural and industrial goods. As Congress attempts to reclaim trade authority, the White House will refrain from escalating these trade battles into an all-out trade war.

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A Distracted U.S. Struggles To Shift Its Global Focus

Omar Lamrani By Omar Lamrani – Re-Blogged From Stratfor

Highlights

  • The United States is restructuring its global military footprint, reallocating its resources and shifting its strategic focus to better compete against China and Russia.
  • To achieve this, the United States will be compelled to prioritize its commitments in Europe and the Asia-Pacific region.
  • However, enduring U.S. commitments elsewhere and emerging global flashpoints will sidetrack Washington’s attention and resources. 

U.S. soldiers watch paratroopers from the U.S. Army 173rd Airborne Brigade, the UK's 16 Air Assault Brigade and Italian Folgore Airborne Brigade as they parachute to the ground during a training jump as part of the Saber Junction 16 military exercises near the Hohenfels Training Area. April 2016, near Grafenwoehr, Germany.

(MATEJ DIVIZNA/Getty Images)

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Chinese Bombers Make Debut Landing on Disputed South China Sea Runway

By AFP – Re-Blogged From Newsmax

China has for the first time landed several bombers on an island in the disputed South China Sea, a move that could provoke renewed tensions between countries bordering the strategically vital maritime region.

Several bombers of various types — including the long-range, nuclear strike capable H-6K — carried out landing and take off drills at an unidentified island airfield after carrying out simulated strike training on targets at sea, the Chinese airforce said in a statement Friday.

What Beijing is Building in the South China Sea

Re-Blogged From Stratfor

Since China began its extensive land reclamation program in the South China Sea in 2013, Beijing has focused on improving its presence and infrastructure at seven locations in the Spratly Island chain: Cuarteron Reef, Fiery Cross, Gaven, Hughes, Johnson, Mischief and Subi reefs.

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To Counter China, India Pushes East

Re-Blogged From Stratfor

Highlights

  • China’s regional expansion in the Asia-Pacific will continue driving India into a security partnership with the United States and Japan as part of its Act East policy.
  • Barriers to market access will continue limiting the expansion of Indian trade with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN).
  • Fiscal and project management impediments will limit progress on India’s two key infrastructure projects in the northeast, thereby limiting its land-based ASEAN trade.

With its Act East policy, India is focused on strengthening its trade and infrastructural ties with Southeast Asia.

(BEYHANYAZAR/iStock)

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Couldn’t Hit an Elephant

By Jeff Thomas  – Re-Blogged From http://www.internationalman.com

“They couldn’t hit an elephant at this distance.”

Those are purported to be the last words of General John Sedgwick, spoken as he observed distant Confederate troops during the 1864 Battle of Spotsylvania in Virginia. (Historians debate as to whether these were his very final words or amongst his final words, but there is no debate as to whether he then received a mortal bullet wound to his face.)

Couldn’t Hit an Elephant

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Was Turkey Coup Staged?

By Michael Snyder – Re-Blogged From Economic Collapse Blog

Barack Obama’s “friend” in Turkey is a deeply corrupt radical Islamist dictator that has just staged a coup to consolidate his grip on power.  As I have reported previously, 1,845 “journalists, writers and critics” have been arrested for “insulting” President Erdogan over just the past two years, and a couple of years ago he had a monstrous 1,100 room presidential palace built for himself that is 30 times larger than the White House.  With each passing day, more evidence emerges which seems to indicate that the recent “coup” was a staged event meant to enable Erdogan and his allies to eliminate their enemies and solidify their stranglehold over the nation.  At this point the number of victims of “Erdogan’s purge” has hit 50,000, but the final number will not be known for quite some time.

Of course there is a possibility that the coup was not staged, but if it wasn’t staged it was the worst military coup that I have seen in my entire lifetime.  As Fox News has pointed out, not a single high level member of government was killed or detained…

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