Gold Mid-Tiers’ Q2’20 Fundamentals

By Adam Hamilton – Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle

The mid-tier gold miners in this sector’s sweet spot for upside potential have had a spectacular run since March’s stock panic!  That catapulted them to extremely-overbought levels, necessitating a correction to rebalance sentiment.  The mid-tiers’ just-reported Q2’20 operational and financial results reveal whether those big gains were fundamentally-righteous, and whether more major upside is likely in coming months.

Mid-tier gold miners produce between 300k to 1m ounces of gold annually, more than smaller juniors but less than larger majors.  Mid-tiers are far less risky than juniors, and amplify gold’s uplegs much more than majors.  Their unique mix of sizable diversified gold production, material output-growth potential, and smaller market capitalizations is ideal for outsized gains.  They are the best gold stocks for traders to own.

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Gold Stocks’ Autumn Rally 5

By Adam Hamilton – Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle

The gold miners’ stocks have rocketed higher this summer, smashing out of their usual summer-doldrums sideways grind. That atypical strength has been driven by gold steadily marching to major new secular highs, fueled by strong investment demand. This has carried gold stocks and the metal they mine back to their traditional strong season, which begins with robust autumn rallies usually accelerating in late summers.

Seasonality is the tendency for prices to exhibit recurring patterns at certain times during the calendar year. While seasonality doesn’t drive price action, it quantifies annually-repeating behavior driven by sentiment, technicals, and fundamentals. We humans are creatures of habit and herd, which naturally colors our trading decisions. The calendar year’s passage affects the timing and intensity of buying and selling.

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Gold Stocks Blast Higher

By Adam Hamilton – Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle

The gold miners’ stocks are blasting higher, just achieving major new secular highs!  Traders are flocking back to gold stocks as the metal they produce relentlessly advances on strong investment demand.  That is atypical during market summers, but the pandemic has made for unprecedented times.  This gold-stock upleg is big, but doesn’t look excessive yet.  It should keep marching with investment capital flowing into gold.

With these red-hot stock markets fueled by extreme Fed money printing, the small contrarian gold-stock sector has largely remained overlooked.  But the gold miners’ gains since March’s stock panic have been awesome.  The leading and dominant gold-stock benchmark is the GDX VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF.  Its impressive $16.9b in net assets this week doubled all the rest of the US gold-stock ETFs combined!

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Gold-Stock Upleg Healthy

By Adam Hamilton – Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle

The gold miners’ stocks just rolled over into a correction, raising concerns about the staying power of their massive post-panic upleg.  These higher prevailing gold prices have driven very-strong fundamentals at the gold miners.  But they are entering the seasonally-weak summer doldrums.  And current sentiment and technicals play major roles in governing when uplegs remain healthy or ready to give up their ghosts.

The GDX VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF remains the leading and dominant benchmark for this small contrarian sector.  Its $14.3b in net assets this week were a colossal 33.2x bigger than those of its next-largest 1x-long major-gold-miners-ETF competitor!  GDX’s only real rival is its little-brother GDXJ mid-tier gold-miners ETF, which is only about one-third of GDX’s size.  The GDX gold stocks have sure had a wild ride.

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Gold Mid-Tiers’ Q1’20 Fundamentals

By Adam Hamilton – Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle

The mid-tier gold miners in the sweet spot for stock-price upside potential have enjoyed a massive run since mid-March’s stock-panic lows.  They’ve already more than doubled in the couple months since!  Their just-released Q1’20 operational and financial results reveal whether these huge gains are righteous fundamentally, whether this uptrend is likely to persist, and how COVID-19 shutdowns are affecting gold miners.

Interestingly the leading mid-tier gold-stock ETF is the famous GDXJ VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF.  Despite its misleading name, GDXJ is overwhelmingly dominated by mid-tier gold miners.  They produce 300k to 1m ounces of gold annually, between the smaller juniors and larger majors.  The mid-tiers offer an excellent mix of sizable diversified production, output-growth potential, and smaller market caps.

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Silver’s Epic Mean Reversion

By Adam Hamilton – Re-Blogged From Silver Phoenix

Silver is powering higher in a new bull market after getting clobbered in March’s stock panic.  Investors have been flocking back to silver in the aftermath of that ultra-rare extreme-fear event.  That brutal selloff also utterly wiped out speculators’ upside bets in silver futures, giving them massive room to buy back in.  After being pummeled to record-low levels relative to gold, an epic silver mean reversion higher is underway.

A couple weeks ago, I wrote a popular essay “Big Silver Bull Running!”.  It explained what happened to silver in this recent COVID-19 stock panic, and why silver soared in its wake.  Sucked into that blinding fear maelstrom, silver was thrashed to a miserable 10.9-year low.  This metal plummeted in a near-crash, fueled by speculators’ fastest long purge ever witnessed!  That exhausted their selling, totally resetting longs.

That meant these super-leveraged traders’ capital firepower was fully available to buy back into silver.  And much more bullish than that, strong and relentless silver investment demand emerged since that mid-March collapse.  That’s evident in the soaring silver-bullion holdings of silver’s leading exchange-traded fund, the SLV iShares Silver Trust!  This dominant silver ETF is the best daily proxy for global investment demand.

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THIS ONE THING Will Tell Us When The Bubble Economy Is Bursting

By Mike Gleason – Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle

Mike Gleason: It is my privilege now to welcome back Michael Pento, President and founder of Pento Portfolio Strategies. Michael’s a well-known money manager, market commentator and author of the book, The Coming Bond Market Collapse: How to Survive the Demise of the U.S. Debt Market. He’s been a regular guest with us over the years and we always love getting his fantastic insights.

Well, we’re having a hard time seeing a big move higher in metals prices until one of two things happen. We’ll start here. The first would be a pickup and safe haven demand. In our view there is too much investor complacency given the circumstances as has been the case for a while now, equity market valuations are sky high. Now we’ve got an election coming up, and there is at least some chance our next president will be an avowed socialist. This does not seem like the time for investors to be all in on risk trades, but we suppose the only thing that really matters is the Fed. They are going to do whatever it takes to keep the party in the stock markets going.

But what are your thoughts? Are we likely to see the markets get a wakeup call anytime soon or is the Fed likely to maintain complete control for the foreseeable future? Let’s start there.

Michael Pento: What a great question. Geez, you hit me over the head with a, a big anvil. That’s the $20 trillion question. I mean, can the market continue to defy gravity – and it is defying gravity, make no mistake about it. If you look at the total market cap to GDP, I look at the Wilshire 5000, that doesn’t have 5,000 stocks anymore. I think it’s like 3,500 but it’s the widest measurement of stocks, their market cap, to the underlying economy. That ratio is now 155%. Outside of March of 2000 when it was 145 or 148 around there, it’s never been near this. The average ratio is 0.8%… 80% or 0.8 in the ratio. So 155%, 1.55% above where the underlying supporting economy is. I mean it’s never been anywhere near this outside of that epic bubble in the NASDAQ debacle where the NASDAQ lost 80% of its value.

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Gold Juniors’ Q1’17 Fundamentals

By Adam Hamilton – Re-Blogged From http://www.Gold-Eagle.com

The junior gold miners’ stocks suffered a serious thrashing between mid-April and early May.  Relentless heavy selling blasted many back down near deep mid-December lows, leaving sentiment in tatters.  But traders distracted by weak technicals need to keep their eyes on the fundamental ball.  The gold juniors just finished their Q1 earnings season, which was solid.  Their low stock prices are disconnected from reality.

Four times a year publicly-traded companies release treasure troves of valuable information in the form of quarterly reports.  These are generally due by 45 days after quarter-ends in the US and Canada.  They offer true and clear snapshots of what’s really going on operationally, shattering the misconceptions bred by the ever-shifting winds of sentiment.  There’s no junior-gold-miner data that is more highly anticipated.

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