Natural Variation

Greenland and the 1950s Climate Consensus

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By Jim Steele – Re-Blogged From WUWT

What’s Natural?

Glaciers around the world reached their greatest size in four thousand years by 1850. Then abruptly the world began to warm. Arctic sea ice lost 40% of its thickness by 1940. Around the Arctic island of Spitsbergen melting sea ice allowed shipping season to lengthen from 3 months to 7 by 1940, meanwhile 400 additional square miles of sea ice was melting along the Russian coasts. By 1950, 96% of Europe’s glaciers were retreating and small glaciers had simply disappeared. In the tropics, Africa’s Kilimanjaro’s iconic glaciers was also shrinking alarmingly.

In the far north, pine forests couldn’t reproduce between 1850 and 1900 due to the cold. But with warming, all age classes of seedlings proliferated. Tree-line rose by about 70 feet in a few decades. Plants were flowering earlier, and seeds and berries ripened earlier. Atlantic cod moved northward creating a new Greenland fishery and several southern bird species moved into Iceland.

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Alleged Climate Change Extreme Weather Link

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– Re-Blogged From WUWT

Bill McKibben sees climate change every day, and he wants you to see climate change as well. But his dramatic description of “Hiroshimas” worth of energy leaves out some important context.

How Fast Is the Climate Changing?: It’s a New World, Each and Every Day

Storm intensity vs year (from Dr. Roy Spencer’s Blog)

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Another Look at Michael Crichton’s ‘State of Fear’

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By Bob Tisdale – Re-Blogged From WUWT

SUBTITLE: Nobody Knows How Much of the Global Surface Warming from 1861 to 2005 Is Human-induced or Naturally Occurring. Climate Scientists Are Only Guessing. And Their Guesses Are Based on How They Program Their Computer Models to Meet the Expectations and Political Agendas of the Politicians Providing the Funding for the Computer-Modeling Efforts

INTRODUCTION

It had been more than a decade since I first read Michael Crichton’s 2004 novel State of Fear. I purchased an e-book edition recently, and I’ve just finished reading it. I enjoyed State of Fear thoroughly the second time around. Now, though, with my much more-detailed understanding of the subject and the global politics behind it, it was interesting to see Michael Crichton arguing points in 2004 that heretics of the religion of human-induced global warming/climate change are still arguing today, 14 years later. I took a few notes, too, this time, when I found something interesting.

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Why Climate Models Run Hot

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By Rud Istvan – Re-Blogged From http://www.WattsUpWithThat.com

EPA administrator Pruitt wants to “Red Team” the catastrophic anthropogenic global warming (CAGW) consensus best reflected in the IPCC assessment reports (AR). At its core, CAGW rests on just three propositions:

1. CO2 is a ‘greenhouse’ gas retarding radiative cooling. This should not be in serious dispute since Tyndall experimentally proved it in 1859.

2. The Earth is warming. Although the details are in dispute because of temperature data quality problems and ‘adjustments’, the general fact is not. The Earth has been intermittently warming since the Little Ice Age (LIA) ended. For example, the last Thames Ice Fair was in 1814.

3. CO2 and its knock-on effects caused the recent warming, and climate models (such as the CMIP5 archive for IPCC AR5) predict this will continue to catastrophic levels. This is an extremely dubious proposition.

This guest post addresses proposition 3. It does so in a short sound bite ‘abstract’ useful for debating warmunists, and then in a typical WUWT full climate science guest post. It is a modest Red Team contribution.

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New Study Confirms: The Warming ‘PAUSE’ is Real and Revealing

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By Dr David Whitehouse  – Re-Blogged From http://www.WattsUpWithThat.com

A new paper has been published in the Analysis section of Nature called Reconciling controversies about the ‘global warming hiatus.’ It confirms that the ‘hiatus’ or ‘pause’ is real. It is also rather revealing.

It attempts to explain the ‘Pause’ by looking into what is known about climate variability. They say that four years after the release of the IPCC AR5 report, which contained much about the ‘hiatus’ it is time to see what can be learned.

One could be a little sarcastic in saying why would Nature devote seven of its desirable pages to an event that some vehemently say never existed and maintain its existence has been disproved long ago. Now, however, as the El Nino spike of the past few years levels off, analysing the ‘pause’ seems to be coming back into fashion.

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Open Letter to U.S. Senators Ted Cruz, James Inhofe and Marco Rubio

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By Bob Tisdale – Re-Blogged From http://www.WattsUpWithThat.com

To: The Honorable Ted Cruz, James Inhofe and Marco Rubio

Dear Senators Cruz, Inhofe and Rubio:

I am writing you as chairs of the Subcommittee on Space, Science, and Competitiveness, of the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee, and of the Committee on Oceans, Atmosphere, Fisheries, and Coast Guard. I am an independent researcher who studies global warming and climate change, and I am probably best known for my articles at the science weblog WattsUpWithThat, where I would be considered an investigative reporter.

I have a few very basic questions for you about climate model-based science. They are:

  • Why are taxpayers funding climate model-based research when those models are not simulating Earth’s climate?
  • Why are taxpayers funding climate model-based research when each new generation of climate models provides the same basic answers?
  • Redundancy: why are taxpayers funding 4 climate models in the U.S.?
  • Why aren’t climate models providing the answers we need?
    • Example: Why didn’t the consensus of regional climate models predict the timing, extent and duration of the Californian drought?

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ENSO Explains Global Temperature Swings

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cropped-bob-shapiro.jpg   By Bob Shapiro

The IPCC has use many models to try to predict future global temperatures. To date, these models have done a lousy job, not even being able to predict the past climate fluctuations. Worst of all, the IPCC and the rest of the CAGW Alarmism industry have ignored the numerous natural variation explanations.

One of these lines of thought is ENSO – the El Nino/Southern Oscillation. Let’s look briefly at each of the parts.

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The Thermostat Hypothesis

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CAGW Alarmists have jumped to the conclusion that CO2 is the culprit in global warming without even considering various natural processes.

During the last million years or so, through warm inter-glacial periods and Mini Ice Ages, global temperatures have varied by only about 10 degrees Celsius. During the current inter-glacial, the Holocene, global temperatures have been restricted, up and down, by half that.

Considering that outer space is 300 degrees colder, and the sun is thousands of degrees warmer, such a narrow band of average global temperatures here on earth is amazing!

Here is a wonderful explanation of how one natural process works to do this.

Watts Up With That?

Guest Essay by Willis Eschenbach

thermostat_earth

Abstract

The Thermostat Hypothesis is that tropical clouds and thunderstorms actively regulate the temperature of the earth. This keeps the earth at a equilibrium temperature.

Several kinds of evidence are presented to establish and elucidate the Thermostat Hypothesis – historical temperature stability of the Earth, theoretical considerations, satellite photos, and a description of the equilibrium mechanism.

Historical Stability

The stability of the earth’s temperature over time has been a long-standing climatological puzzle. The globe has maintained a temperature of ± ~ 3% (including ice ages) for at least the last half a billion years during which we can estimate the temperature. During the Holocene, temperatures have not varied by ±1%. And during the ice ages, the temperature was generally similarly stable as well.

In contrast to Earth’s temperature stability, solar physics has long indicated (Gough, 1981; Bahcall et al., 2001) that 4 billion years ago…

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