Re-Blogged From Stratfor
- Nicaragua’s government is gaining the upper hand over a 3-month-old protest movement, but demonstrations could flare up again as President Daniel Ortega tries to cement his rule.
- Because renewed protests would further strain Nicaragua’s economy, thereby inserting a wedge between Ortega and the country’s business elites, the president will try to draw as many allies to his side by distributing benefits to them.
- Nicaragua will pursue a more authoritarian path if protests continue but fail to unseat Ortega.
- Though ending the protests will temporarily reduce business risks in Nicaragua, the specter of U.S. sanctions against Ortega and his allies will loom.
(MARVIN RECINOS/AFP/Getty Images)