Weekly Climate and Energy News Roundup #345

The Week That Was: 2019-01-26,Brought to You by www.SEPP.org

By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project

Quote of the Week: “Advances are made by answering questions. Discoveries are made by questioning answers.”— Bernhard Haisch, astrophysicist [H/t William Readdy]

Number of the Week: 250 Million MW short

Observations or Theory? Last week’s TWTW discussed the weather engine, a process illustrated in a graph in the Kiehl and Trenberth’s paper on the “Earth’s Annual Global Mean Energy Budget.” Energy from the sun causes water vapor and evapotranspiration to rise in the atmosphere, then condense into liquid water (or ice) in the upper troposphere giving off latent heat centered about 9 to 11 km (30,000 to 36,000 feet). This was the apparent source of the tropical “hot spot” used by climate modelers and the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and its followers. It provided the argument in the 1979 Charney Report that an increase water vapor would dramatically increase the greenhouse gas effect of carbon dioxide (CO2).

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97% Climate Consensus’ Starts to Crumble

A broad survey of climate change literature for 2017 reveals that the alleged “consensus” behind the dangers of anthropogenic global warming is not nearly as settled among climate scientists as people imagine.

Author Kenneth Richard found that during the course of the year 2017, at least 485 scientific papers were published that in some way questioned the supposed consensus regarding the perils of human CO2 emissions or the efficacy of climate models to predict the future.

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Climate Models and Climate Reality Vary Greatly

By Anthony Watts – Re-Blogged From http://www.WattsUpWithThat.com

A new paper has been published in Geophysical Research Letters that shows once again, that climate models and reality significantly vary. It confirms what Dr. John Christy has been saying (see figure below). The paper also references Dr. Judith Curry and her work.


Pronounced differences between observed and CMIP5-simulated multidecadal climate variability in the twentieth century

Plain Language Summary

Global and regional warming trends over the course of the twentieth century have been nonuniform, with decadal and longer periods of faster or slower warming, or even cooling. Here we show that state-of-the-art global models used to predict climate fail to adequately reproduce such multidecadal climate variations. In particular, the models underestimate the magnitude of the observed variability and misrepresent its spatial pattern. Therefore, our ability to interpret the observed climate change using these models is limited.

Abstract

Identification and dynamical attribution of multidecadal climate undulations to either variations in external forcings or to internal sources is one of the most important topics of modern climate science, especially in conjunction with the issue of human-induced global warming. Here we utilize ensembles of twentieth century climate simulations to isolate the forced signal and residual internal variability in a network of observed and modeled climate indices. The observed internal variability so estimated exhibits a pronounced multidecadal mode with a distinctive spatiotemporal signature, which is altogether absent in model simulations. This single mode explains a major fraction of model-data differences over the entire climate index network considered; it may reflect either biases in the models’ forced response or models’ lack
of requisite internal dynamics, or a combination of both.

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