Peak Oil, Abiotic Oil & EROEI: Real(ish) Things That Don’t Matter, Part One: Peak Oil

By David Middleton – Re-Blogged From WUWT

The plots of the Seinfeld TV show often revolved around trivializing important things and blowing trivial things out of proportion. While not a Seinfeld fanatic (I’m more of a Frasier fanatic), I thought the comedy routines were generally brilliant and quite effective.

Peak Oil, abiotic oil and EROEI (energy returned on energy invested) are largely academic concepts. They are the subject of books, academic publications and Internet “debates” The “debates” about Peak Oil, abiotic oil and EROEI are a lot like the Seinfeld show. They magnify the trivial and trivialize things that actually matter. The “debates” often divide into two camps:

  1. It’s the end of the world (Peak Oil, EROEI).
  2. It’s our salvation from the end of the world (Abiotic oil).

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Another Failed Energy Prediction: Peak Oil Demand

By David Middleton – Re-Blogged From WUWT

BP’s ‘Peak Oil’ Demand Prediction Falls Flat

By Jude Clemente, February 22, 2019

Always mandatory reading, BP just released its Energy Outlook 2019
It has caused quite a stir again this year.

But, this time the commotion that I see surrounds BP’s forecast that the global war on plastics will be the main factor in cutting global oil demand faster than previously expected. As such, for the first time BP’s outlook predicted a “peak” in oil use. At 13 million b/d, global petrochemical feedstock is 13% of total oil demand.

This is part of a growing trend in recent years where BP continues to see “much slower” growth in new oil demand going forward (see Figure).

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Weekly Climate and Energy News Roundup #327

Brought to You by www.SEPP.org The Science and Environmental Policy Project

By Ken Haapala, President

William Happer – New Trump Appointment: According to news reports, William (Will) Happer has begun serving on the National Security Council as the senior director for emerging technologies. Will Happer is the Cyrus Fogg Professor of Physics, Emeritus, of Princeton University. His specialties included atomic physics, optics and spectroscopy. He is one of the pioneers in the field of optically polarized atoms. This research includes how light is used to raise electrons from a lower energy level in an atom or molecule to a higher one – optical pumping.

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Weekly Climate and Energy News Roundup #213

The Week That Was: January 23, 2016 – Brought to You by www.SEPP.org

By Ken Haapala – The Science and Environmental Policy Project

Robert M. Carter, RIP: A splendid fellow and a great friend of scientific integrity passed this week. He inspired and encouraged many scientists to question the unsubstantiated claims that atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, mainly carbon dioxide (CO2), are the dominant cause of climate change. As a geologist he knew better. He demonstrated that the CO2 hypothesis does not stand up to rigorous testing, thus needs to be discarded or changed.

Lesser characters have labeled this testing as “cherry-picking”; confusing the use of selected data to advocate a particular hypothesis (guess) with testing a hypothesis against all relevant data. If a hypothesis fails one dataset, then it cannot be a generally acceptable scientific hypothesis.

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Weekly Climate and Energy News Roundup #179

The Week That Was: May 9, 2015 Brought to You by www.SEPP.org

By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project

Controversial Points: On her web site, Climate Etc., Judith Curry explores what she considers the most controversial points in climate science. The points must be agreed upon in order to resolve the controversies. To her, the two general issues are: 1) whether the warming since 1950 has been dominated by human causes and 2) how much the planet will warm in the 21st century?

From these general issues she develops the specific technical issues that need to be resolved, including:

  • “Causes of the 1900-1940 warming; the cooling from 1940-1976; and the recent hiatus in warming since 1998.  How are these explained in context of AGW being the dominant influence since 1950?
  • Solar impacts on climate (including indirect effects).  What are the magnitudes and nature of the range of physical mechanisms?
  • Nature and mechanisms of multi-decadal and century scale natural internal variability.  How do these modes of internal variability interact with external forcing, and to what extent are these modes separable from externally forced climate change?
  • Deep ocean heat content variations and mechanisms of vertical heat transfer between the surface and deep-ocean.
  • Sensitivity of the climate system to external forcing, including fast thermodynamic feedbacks (water vapor, clouds, lapse rate).
  • Climate dynamics of clouds: Could changes in cloud distribution or optical properties contribute to the global surface temperature hiatus? How do cloud patterns (and TOA and surface radiative fluxes) change with shifts in atmospheric circulation and teleconnection regimes (e.g. AO, NAO, PDO)? How do feedbacks between clouds, surface temperature, and atmospheric thermodynamics/circulations interact with global warming and the atmospheric circulation and teleconnection regimes?”

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Peak Oil Re-visited

By Mike Jonas – Re-Blogged From http://www.WattsUpWihThat.com

In 2012, I said that it was getting ever more difficult to increase production, and that I suspected that we were already at or close to Peak Oil, but that it was still mathematically possible that Peak Oil was many years away. Do I still think that? In a way, yes, but … well, read on …

In this article, I look at the major factors affecting oil supply, look at past oil market behaviour and how the future may develop, see what lessons can be learned from Hubbert’s Peak, and speculate on when Peak Oil will occur and what it may feel like.

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