The Energy Disaster Kicking Into Full Gear

By SRSrocco – Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle

There’s more evidence finally surfacing in the media of the dire energy predicament the world is now facing.  The negative ramifications of peak oil and the falling EROI were going to hit the world economy within the next 2-5 years, but the global contagion has sped up the process considerably.  Unfortunately, the world will never return back to the energy consumption and GDP growth experienced in 2019.  I believe the peak of unconventional oil production has finally arrived… FOREVER.

Here are a few highlights describing the ongoing ENERGY DISASTER taking place

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Gold Miners’ Profits To Soar

By Adam Hamilton – Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle

The gold miners are likely to report blowout profits in this spinning-up Q3’19 earnings season.  Higher production, stable costs, and much-higher gold prices should combine for some super-impressive results.  That’s going to leave the still-undervalued gold miners much more attractive fundamentally, supporting bigger capital inflows and much-higher stock prices.  Q3 should prove the gold miners’ best quarter in years.

Stock prices are ultimately dependent on underlying corporate earnings.  Over the long term all stock prices gravitate towards some reasonable multiple of their underlying companies’ profits.  Herd greed and fear can force stock prices to disconnect from fundamentals for some time, but eventually they trump sentiment.  So there’s nothing more important for stock-price-appreciation potential than foundational profits.

Most of the major gold miners trade in the US or Canada, and thus are required to report their results quarterly.  The SEC deadline for filing 10-Q quarterly reports is 40 calendar days after quarter-ends, or November 9th for the recently-finished Q3’19.  The major gold miners tend to report in the latter end of that window.  The definitive list of them comes from the leading gold-stock trading vehicle and benchmark.

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Why Natural Gas Prices Collapsed

gas storage

U.S. natural gas prices have collapsed since the end of winter, even as inventory levels remain below average levels for this time of year.

Henry Hub prices spiked in the fourth quarter of 2018 due to record levels of demand, cold weather, and historically low inventories. But prices remained elevated, over $4/MMBtu, for only a brief period of time. Production continued to soar, so traders were not overly concerned about market tightness.

As peak winter demand season drew to a close in March, prices continued to ease, and prices have eroded steadily in the last few months. Prices dipped below $2.30/MMBtu recently, hovering in that range for the first time in roughly three years. As recently as December, prices were twice as high as they are now.

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Peak Oil, Abiotic Oil & EROEI: Real(ish) Things That Don’t Matter, Part One: Peak Oil

By David Middleton – Re-Blogged From WUWT

The plots of the Seinfeld TV show often revolved around trivializing important things and blowing trivial things out of proportion. While not a Seinfeld fanatic (I’m more of a Frasier fanatic), I thought the comedy routines were generally brilliant and quite effective.

Peak Oil, abiotic oil and EROEI (energy returned on energy invested) are largely academic concepts. They are the subject of books, academic publications and Internet “debates” The “debates” about Peak Oil, abiotic oil and EROEI are a lot like the Seinfeld show. They magnify the trivial and trivialize things that actually matter. The “debates” often divide into two camps:

  1. It’s the end of the world (Peak Oil, EROEI).
  2. It’s our salvation from the end of the world (Abiotic oil).

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The Coming Middle East Oil Crisis: The Collapse Of Net Oil Exports

By SRSrocco – Re-Blogged From Silver Phoenix

The Middle East is heading for a crisis in its oil industry.  Unfortunately, the market doesn’t realize there is any danger on the horizon because it mainly focuses on how much oil the Middle East is producing rather than its exports.  You see, it doesn’t really matter how much oil a country produces but rather the amount of its net oil exports.

A perfect example of this is Mexico.  As I mentioned in a recent article, NEXT OIL DOMINO TO FALL? Mexico Becomes A Net Oil Importer, Mexico is now a net importer of oil for the first time in more than 50 years.  Furthermore, the IEA – International Energy Agency, published in their newest OMR Report that Mexico is forecasted to lose another 170,000 barrels per day of oil production in 2019.  Thus, this is terrible news for the United States southern neighbor as it will have to import even more oil to satisfy its domestic consumption.

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Silver Miners’ Q4’18 Fundamentals

By Adam Hamilton – Re-Blogged From Silver Phoenix

The major silver miners have rallied higher on balance in recent months, enjoying a young upleg. That’s a welcome change after they suffered a miserable 2018. Times are tough for silver miners, since silver’s prices have languished near extreme lows relative to gold. That has forced many traditional silver miners to increasingly diversify into gold. The major silver miners’ recently-released Q4’18 results illuminate their struggles.

Four times a year publicly-traded companies release treasure troves of valuable information in the form of quarterly reports. Required by the US Securities and Exchange Commission, these 10-Qs and 10-Ks contain the best fundamental data available to traders. They dispel all the sentiment distortions inevitably surrounding prevailing stock-price levels, revealing corporations’ underlying hard fundamental realities.

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Economist Foresees “Quick Decline” in US Oil Production

By David Middleton – Re-Blogged From WUWT

U.S. Oil Production Is Headed For A Quick Decline

By Philip Verleger – Mar 11, 2019

The most recent forecasts published by the US Energy Information Administration show US oil production increasing steadily. The February Short-Term Energy Outlook sees the output from US wells rising from 11.9 million barrels per day at the end of 2018 to 13.5 million barrels per day by the end of 2020. Most other forecasters agree.

Thus, it may come as a surprise to learn that production at the end of 2020 may have actually decreased from December’s 11.9 million barrels per day level to between 11.3 and 11.5 million barrels per day. This lower figure represents the production level that should be expected given the financial activity of the independent firms behind the shale output surge.
The coming decline will occur mostly in the areas that have produced the most growth over the last five years: the Bakken, Eagle Ford, Haynesville, Julesburg, and Permian basins. The production drop will occur because the firms operating there have been forced by monetary constraints to cut back on drilling. The recent reduction in debt and equity issuance by these firms assure the output decline.

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