The Relentless Road to Recession

By David Haggith – Re-Blogged From The Great Recession Blog 

“Show me the data,” demand those who cannot see a recession forming all around them and who keep parroting what they are told about the economy being strong because it is what they want to believe; yet, the data look like an endless march through a long summer down the road to recession.

And that is what you are going to get in this article, a seemingly endless parade of data along the recessionary road. This is for the data hounds.

As we end the summer of our discontent when few would deny that most economic talk turned toward recession and, as we begin the time when I said the stock market appears it may fulfill my prognostication of another October surprise, it’s time to lay out — again — the latest data that support my summer recession prediction. We’ll have to wait until next year for the government to officially declare a recession if one did start in September. (Yes, September is a summer month.) In the meantime, the data stream is a long line of confirmation.

The Stock Bull is Dying

By David Haggith – Re-Blogged From Silver Phoenix

Oh my gosh, what a load of BULL I keep reading among the gurus who whine about negative headlines and complain that this unmerited negativity is the only thing that is killing the bull market. Bull.

The bellowing bulls cry every time someone runs a negative headline, “Stop, you’re breaking our bull market with your negativity. That is the only reason it is going down.” The real truth is that headlines have been enormously biased toward a BULLish narrative for the better part of a decade, and bearish headlines are only just beginning to seep in. But that is too much for the bulls: “All this negativity is killing us.”

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Real(ish)Things That Don’t Matter, Part Trois

By David Middleton – Re-Blogged From WUWT

In Part One of this series, we looked at Peak Oil and its irrelevance to energy production and also discussed the relevance of Seinfeld. In Part Deux, we looked at “abiotic oil,” a real(ish) thing that really doesn’t matter outside of academic discussions and SyFy blogs.

Part Trois will explore perhaps the most meaningless notion to ever come out of academia: Energy Returned On Energy Invested (EROEI or EROI depending on spelling skill). EROEI is like what Seinfeld would have been if it was written by Douglas Adams.

EROEI

EROEI is the preferred energy metric for Malthusians, environmental activists, Warmunists and proponents of uneconomic energy sources. Invention of this concept is generally credited to an ecology professor…

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Gold Miners’ Q3’18 Fundamentals

By Adam Hamilton – Re-Blogged From Gold Eagle

The major gold miners’ stocks remain mired in universal bearishness, largely left for dead.  They are just wrapping up their third-quarter earnings season, which proved challenging.  Lower gold prices cut deeply into cash flows and profits, and production-growth struggles persisted.  But these elite companies did hold the line on costs, portending soaring earnings as gold recovers.  Their absurdly-cheap stock prices aren’t justified.

Four times a year publicly-traded companies release treasure troves of valuable information in the form of quarterly reports.  Companies trading in the States are required to file 10-Qs with the US Securities and Exchange Commission by 40 calendar days after quarter-ends.  Canadian companies have similar requirements at 45 days.  In other countries with half-year reporting, many companies still partially report quarterly.

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Buffett Spends $928 Million to Buy His Own Shares Back

[This may be one of the very few stock buybacks to make sense for stockholders – because company profits are growing quickly and other opportunities are hard to find. -Bob]

By Associated Press – Re-Blogged From Newsmax

Warren Buffett’s company more than quadrupled its third-quarter profits because of a huge paper gain in the value of its investments, although its insurance and railroad businesses also improved.

Notably, Buffett’s company bought back nearly $1 billion in stock during the quarter — the first time that’s happened in years — a possible sign that the world’s most famous investor has been unable to find attractive investments to purchase.

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GE Slashes Dividend to 1 Penny, Reveals Deeper SEC Probe

By Thomson Reuters – Re-Blogged From Newsmax

General Electric Co. slashed its quarterly dividend to a penny a share, promised to restructure its power unit and said it faced a deeper accounting probe as new Chief Executive Larry Culp took his first steps to revive the struggling conglomerate.

GE said the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and Department of Justice had expanded ongoing investigations to include a $22-billion writedown of goodwill from GE’s power division, which GE reported on Tuesday.

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Drowning in Cash, Big Oil’s Biggest Challenge Is How to Spend It

By Bloomberg – Re-Blogged From Newsmax

Big Oil’s big payday has finally arrived. The question now is how to spend the extra cash.

Investors will be reading the third-quarter tea leaves to discern whether executives plan to boost dividends and buybacks, hike spending on shiny new mega projects, or perhaps even do both.

What they do know is that fresh sources of oil and gas are needed over coming decades to meet the world’s insatiable demand for energy. Spending too much would defy the new-found commitment to financial discipline, while spending too little could choke new supplies and raise crude prices. Higher prices, in turn, may brighten the appeal of green technologies that would hasten the industry’s demise.

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