Yawning Debt Trap Proves the Great Recession is Still On

By David Haggith – Re-Blogged From Great Recession Blog

While David Stockman stated early this year with resolute certainty that the debt ceiling debate would blow congress up and send the nation reeling over the financial precipice, I avoided jumping on the debt-ceiling bandwagon. While I was convinced major rifts in the economy would start to show up in the summer, I was not convinced they would have anything to do with the debt ceiling debate. If there is anything you can be certain of this in endless recovery-mode economy, it is that the US will just keep pushing its bags of bonds up a hill until it can finally push no more. So, I figured another punt down the road was more likely.

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70% To 80% Chance Of Another Global Financial Crisis

By Petr Diekmeyer – Re-Blogged From http://www.Silver-Phoenix500.com

When Janet Yellen, Chairman of the US Federal Reserve, said in June that she does not expect another financial crisis in our lifetime, eyebrows were raised.

None more so than Richard Sylla’s.

Sylla, a professor emeritus at the Stern School of Business and co-author with Sydney Homer of the magisterial A History of Interest Rates, has studied past business cycles. He is thus able to put today’s events in a broader context.

“A lot of the same things are going on right now as before the 2008 crisis,” said Sylla, who puts the probability of a repeat, in our lifetimes, at between 70% and 80%.

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I Know What the Economy Did Last Summer Part 2: The Real Estate Rollover

By David Haggith – Re-Blogged From Great Recession Blog

In fact, I knew what the economy did last summer before summer even began. Since the beginning of the year, I have been writing that it appeared housing was reaching a new bubblicious peak and that the real estate market was getting ready to roll over. Just before the start of the summer, I confirmed that prediction by saying that it looked like that process had begun. I anticipate it will be a slow turnover at first, just as it was in 2007, which did not reach free fall until late in 2008. Likewise, I anticipate the present decline will not reach free fall until 2018.

While housing played out about as I expected this summer (see below), the more obvious collapse right now is developing in metropolitan commercial real estate, particularly in retail space due to the retail apocalypse. Even longtime commercial real-estate mogul Sam Zell warned last week that he would not consider investing any capital in retail real estate. In Zell’s words, the real estate landscape looks “like a falling knife.”

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The Forthcoming Global Crisis

By Alasdair Macleod – Re-Blogged From http://www.Gold-Eagle.com

The global economy is now in an expansionary phase, with bank credit being increasingly available for non-financial borrowers. This is always the prelude to the crisis phase of the credit cycle. Most national economies are directly boosted by China, the important exception being America. This is confirmed by dollar weakness, which is expected to continue. The likely trigger for the crisis will be from the Eurozone, where the shift in monetary policy and the collapse in bond prices will be greatest. Importantly, we can put a tentative date on the crisis phase in the middle to second half of 2018, or early 2019 at the latest.

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Could The Stock Market Crash?

By David Chapman – Re-Blogged From http://www.Silver-Phoenix500.com

I don’t believe we will see another financial crisis in our lifetime.”

  • Janet Yellen, Fed Chair, June 27, 2017

Oh, Janet. We hope you are right. One should never say never—that has a nasty habit of coming back to bite you.

Texas and Houston are currently going through their crash. No, not a stock market crash but a hurricane and flooding crash. Hurricane Harvey has been called a “once in 500 years’ event.” Except in the past twelve years, we have also had Hurricane Katrina and Sandy. They were called “once in 100 years events.” The 400-year difference seems moot. It is becoming a little flippant to call them “once in a lifetime” events when three “lifetime” events have occurred in twelve short years. Yet, for all of them the experts did not see the devastation that was coming.

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Track Record of Stock Market & Macro Economic Predictions

By David Haggith – Re-Blogged From Great Recession Blog

 

I’ll let the chart speak for itself. During the first part of the chart, I did all my writing in newspaper articles, so you won’t find support here on this blog or those early years. I began the blog in 2012. The rest is history.As for the Trump Rally at the end, I didn’t predict it (any more than anyone did), but only declared it the typical euphoric rally (period of irrational exuberance) that comes before a crash, and you can see that it is far more exuberant than any period in the past.

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Blow Off Top…Could It Happen?

By David Chapman – Re-Blogged From http://www.Gold-Eagle.com

Every time we pick up some article on the stock market of late, all we read is the stock market is on the verge of a devastating wipeout, or that the next collapse is just around the corner. One of the best headlines we saw recently was from a famed market guru with a headline of “2017 Is Going to Be Worse than the Great Depression!” It is enough to make you run home, pour a long hot bath, slit your wrists, and climb in to the tub.

Okay, maybe that is extreme. Naturally, there are many reasons writers give to back up their case. Those range from the election of Donald Trump, Brexit, rising interest rates in the US, and of course the best one—that the bull market is now into its ninth year from the major low of March 2009 without a correction exceeding 20% and is in the mother of all bubbles. All of that is true. But none of that makes for a final top just because the stock market has been rising for eight years plus.

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