I’m sure most of you are inundated with “Black November,” “70% off” and “clearance” email promotions from the usual cast of brick/mortar/online chain retailers. It started with my inbox in October. This is because retailers are terrified of what could be one of the worst holiday spending seasons in years.
The mainstream financial media, planted with sound-bytes from Wall Street snake-oil salesmen, have already created this year’s “the dog ate my homework” excuse for poor holiday spending with the absurd notion that the period between Thanksgiving and Christmas is shorter this year. Quite frankly, I would not be surprise if many households used Amazon’s Prime day and easy Amazon credit lines offered to buy holiday gifts early this year.
Speaking of AMZN, it warned that its expected holiday sales would be lower than previous guidance. And Home Depot lowered its Q4 revenue estimates for the second time in three months.
By David Haggith – Re-Blogged From http://www.Silver-Phoenix500.com
Summer closed in a whirlwind of weather chaos for the United States and its territories. At the start of the summer, the US economy began to show signs that it was flying apart. The two most obvious were the big blowouts in the auto industry and in retail, not all of which could be attributed to a shift to online sales.
The auto industry rolled over this year and began a decline similar to the one we experienced at the start of the Great Recession…. In response, car markers started offering record incentives (like $0 down, 0% interest on a 80-month loan), which brought an improvement to sales in July. You have to ask, just as I did back in 2007, “What is the end game when such incentives take profit down to nil?”
…Even with such pricing and financing incentives, one firm, SouthBay Research, threw cold water on the Census Bureau’s July sales report, declaring the figures “unbelievable.”
By Bill Holter – Re-Blogged From http://www.Gold-Eagle.com
No matter how you look at it, the global economic pie is shrinking. One might be able to argue this is not so based on individual statistical reports issued by various nations. The problem though is this, many reports do not line up with real world reports. For instance, how can “retail sales” in the U.S. grow when retailer after retailer reports worse than expected and contracting sales? The answer is what your own eyes, common sense and of course “individual companies” added together tell you.
On a broader scale, we are told the world is in recovery. Never mind contraction in Europe or bogus reporting in the U.S., China and elsewhere, “we are in recovery dammit!”. The best way to look at this fallacy for yourself to divine the truth is to look at trade. Or better, “trade rates”. I have mentioned this before, the Baltic dry index has been crashing and now is very close to where it was back in the late 1980’s.
How’s the US Economy doing? That depends on who you ask.
The “official” unemployment rate, at 5.7% is a little high by historical standards, but way down from the peak of the Great Recession. The US Dollar is way up in Forex Markets, and that usually means that the US Economy is booming and everyone wants our strong currency. GDP is up again – at a 3.8% annual rate during the 2nd half of last year.
Who could ask for anything more?! Let’s look at these and other numbers a little more deeply.