Watts Available

By Willis Eschenbach – Re-Blogged From WUWT

I ponder curious things. I got to thinking about available solar energy. That’s the amount of solar energy that remains after reflection losses.

Just under a third (~ 30%) of the incoming sunshine is reflected back into space by a combination of the clouds, the aerosols in the atmosphere, and the surface. What’s left is the solar energy that actually makes it in to warm up and power our entire planet. In this post, for shorthand I’ll call that the “available energy”, because … well, because that’s basically all of the energy we have available to run the entire circus.

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Global Mean Surface Temperature

By Bob Tisdale – Re-Blogged From WUWT

This is a long post: 3500+ words and 22 illustrations. Regardless, heretics of the church of human-induced global warming who frequent this blog should enjoy it. Additionally, I’ve uncovered something about the climate models stored in the CMIP5 archive that I hadn’t heard mentioned or seen presented before. It amazed even me, and I know how poorly these climate models perform. It’s yet another level of inconsistency between models, and it’s something very basic. It should help put to rest the laughable argument that climate models are based on well-documented physical processes.

INTRODUCTION

After isolating 4 climate model ensemble members with specific characteristics (explained later in this introduction), this post presents (1) observed and climate model-simulated global mean sea surface temperatures, and (2) observed and climate model-simulated global mean land near-surface air temperatures, all during the 30-year period with the highest observed warming rate before the year 1950. The climate model outputs being presented are those stored in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) archives, which were used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) for their 5th Assessment Report (AR5). Specifically, the ensemble member outputs being presented are those with historic forcings through 2005 and RCP8.5 (worst-case scenario) forcings thereafter. In other words, the ensemble members being presented during this early warming period are being driven with historic forcings, and they are from the simulations that later include the RCP8.5 forcings.

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Plateau in Ocean Air Temps

– Re-Blogged From Science Matters

Years ago, Dr. Roger Pielke Sr. explained why sea surface temperatures (SST) were the best indicator of heat content gained or lost from earth’s climate system.  Enthalpy is the thermodynamic term for total heat content in a system, and humidity differences in air parcels affect enthalpy.  Measuring water temperature directly avoids distorted impressions from air measurements.  In addition, ocean covers 71% of the planet surface and thus dominates surface temperature estimates.

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Global Warming Surprises

By Dr. Fred Singer – Re-Blogged From http://www.WattsUpWithThat.com

Temp data in dispute can reverse conclusions about human influence on climate.

Exploring some of the intricacies of GW [Global Warming] science can lead to surprising results that have major consequences. In a recent invited talk at the Heartland Institute’s ICCC-12 [Twelfth International Conference on Climate Change], I investigated three important topics:

1. Inconsistencies in the surface temperature record.

2. Their explanation as artifacts arising from the misuse of data.

3. Thereby explaining the failure of IPCC to find credible evidence for anthropogenic global warming (AGW).

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Weekly Climate and Energy News Roundup #258

By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project

Brought to You by www.SEPP.org

Data Integrity: For several years, some commentators who deal with historic temperature data in their daily work, such as Joe D’Aleo of ICECAP, have stated that warming trends suddenly appeared in areas in which there were no such trend previously, such as the state of Maine. Until about 2011, the government published data showed no trend from 1900 to present. Suddenly, government published historic data showed a warming trend of about 3 degrees F. Tony Heller (who goes by Steve Goddard) has followed this issue, graphically showing that trends appeared in recently published historic data, where earlier historic data showed none.

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BOMBSHELL – NOAA Whistleblower Says Karl et al. “Pausebuster” Paper Was Hyped, Broke Procedures

By Anthony Watts – Re-Blogged From http://www.WattsUpWithThat.com

They played fast and loose with the figures -NOAA whistleblower

The Mail on Sunday today reveals astonishing evidence that the organisation that is the world’s leading source of climate data rushed to publish a landmark paper that exaggerated global warming and was timed to influence the historic Paris Agreement on climate change.

A high-level whistleblower has told this newspaper that America’s National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) breached its own rules on scientific integrity when it published the sensational but flawed report, aimed at making the maximum possible impact on world leaders including Barack Obama and David Cameron at the UN climate conference in Paris in 2015.

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2016 Global Surface Temperatures

By Bob Tisdale – Re-Blogged From http://www.WattsUpWithThat.com

Figure 1 presents two model-data comparisons for global sea surface temperatures, not anomalies, for the past 30-years. I’ve included a comparison for the global oceans (90S-90N) in the top graph and a comparison for the global oceans, excluding the polar oceans (60S-60N), in the bottom graph. Excluding the polar oceans doesn’t seem to make a significant difference. It’s obvious that global sea surfaces simulated by the GISS climate model were warmer than observed and that the GISS model warming rate is too high over the past 3 decades. The difference between modeled and observed warming rates is approximately 0.07 to 0.08 deg C/decade, more than 60% higher than the observed rate. And in both cases the 30-year average sea surface temperature as simulated by the GISS models is too high by about 0.6 deg C.

figure-1

Figure 1 – Global Oceans

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Is Earth Warming or Cooling?

By Clyde Spencer – Re-Blogged From http://www.WattsUpWithThat.com

The answer to the question is, “Yes!” Those who believe that Earth is going to Hell in a hand basket, because of anthropogenic carbon dioxide, go to extraordinary lengths to convince the public that uninterrupted warming is occurring at an unprecedented rate. One commonly reads something to the effect that the most recent year was the xth warmest year in the last n years (use your personal preferences for x and n), or that the last n years have been the warmest in the last m years. It is common for NOAA to make claims that current temperatures are higher than some previous year by an amount that is of the same order of magnitude as the uncertainty in the temperature of the year being compared to. [For an extended discussion and analysis of the veracity of these kinds of claims, go to this link: http://www.factcheck.org/2015/04/obama-and-the-warmest-year-on-record/ ] I’d like to start off by examining the logical fallacy of the common idea that these pronouncements support the idea of continued warming. They only provide evidence for it currently being warm!

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